Tennessee vs. Purdue 2024 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Elite Eight (Sunday)
The Midwest Region is the only one of the four to have its Elite 8 matchup be between the top two seeds, as No. 1 seed Purdue and No. 2 seed Tennessee battle for the right to go to the Final Four in Phoenix. Both teams have had their share of NCAA Tournament struggles of late, and are looking to continue to rewrite the narrative of failed seasons because they lost to low seeds in March. Can Tennessee continue its quest to become the first national champion to have lost its first conference tournament game, or will Purdue reach its third Final Four in school history, while keeping alive hopes for its first national title?
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2024 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
N0. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
For the second consecutive game the Boilermakers are facing an opponent that they also met in Maui in late November, as they beat Gonzaga and Tennessee by a combined 14 points on consecutive nights in college basketball's premier early-season tournament. Purdue made the necessary adjustments to trim its turnovers down from 13 to nine between the first two meetings against Gonzaga, and we expect it to do the same after turning the ball over 16 times in a four-point win over Tennessee.
The great advantage Purdue has over the rest of the teams in the country is the mammoth Zach Edey, who can tie David Robinson's all-time record in this game with five consecutive 20-plus point and 10-plus rebound games in the NCAA Tournament (over the past 50 years). Edey had 23 points and 10 rebounds in the first matchup, and lived at the free throw line, though he made just nine of his 17 attempts. He is too much for the combination of Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Akawa to handle inside, and Purdue has shot 45% or better from 3-point range in its last two games, in large part because of the defensive attention Edey commands. The Boilermakers shredded two solid defenses (Utah State and Gonzaga) for 1.43 and 1.36 points per possession, respectively, and Bart Torvik has them as the second-best offense in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency behind UConn.
The Boilermakers have covered all three NCAA Tournament games, are 10-2-2 ATS in non-conference games, and are 7-1-1 ATS against ranked opponents this season. The line has already gone in Purdue’s favor, as some sportsbooks opened with the Boilermakers as 2.5-point favorites. Thus, we are locking in any -3’s we can while that number still exists.
Pick: Purdue -3 (-110)
