Texans vs. Jets Picks & Best Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football
Welcome to the spookiest Week 9 NFL betting breakdown from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, here to guide you through a haunting Halloween matchup that promises chills and thrills. This week, the Houston Texans head to New York to take on the Jets in a high-stakes AFC clash, and it's not just another game-it's a battle of two teams with playoff dreams looking to scare up some momentum in the back half of the season.
Under the eerie glow of Thursday Night Football, these teams will bring their star power to the field, conjuring up a thriller that's bound to keep us on the edge of our seats. From an expert analysis of the spread and total to spellbinding player props, I'll lead you through every wickedly good betting angle for this pivotal showdown. Whether you're crafting the perfect single-game parlay or brewing up your top prop bets, I've got you covered.
This is just a taste of what's to come when the FULL BettingPros Week 9 Primer drops later this week. So light your jack-o’-lanterns, gather your lucky charms, and prepare to place your bets on this Halloween Texans vs. Jets showdown you won't want to miss!
Thursday Night Football Primer
Houston Texans @ New York Jets
Sides:
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last nine games and are 3-5 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as favorites (5-11 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Twelve of their last 15 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- Houston is just 13-12 against the spread over its last 25 games.
- Houston is 2-4 as road favorites. 5-10-1 ATS as a favorite.
- The Texans have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
- HOU is 10-4-1 ATS as a road underdog (71%) and 3-5-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Texans have won each of their last six home games.
- The Texans have been the first to 15 points in each of their last five games.
- The Jets have lost each of their last five games.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 19 games. 2-6 ATS this season
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against teams with winning records.
Totals:
- The Texans have gone under in 17 of their last 27 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Houston is 2-6 O/U this season. Six of the Texans’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line. 0-4 O/U at home.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, each of the Texans' last seven games as home favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
- 13 of the Jets' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
It's Halloween night, and a thrilling matchup awaits as the Houston Texans visit the New York Jets in a spooky Week 9 showdown. Both teams entered the year with strong playoff aspirations, but each comes with its own baggage-especially the Texans, who are battling injuries across the offensive line and just placed key receiver Stefon Diggs on IR. The Jets, meanwhile, are desperate for a win, having dropped five straight games.
The Texans' offensive line has been a house of horrors in pass protection, allowing the most combined sacks (15.5) and quick pressures (30) by an interior line this season, according to Next Gen Stats. This might be a nightmare scenario against Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who has terrorized quarterbacks with 15 pressures since Week 5, including six generated in under 2.5 seconds-both stats ranking him second among defensive tackles.
On paper, the Jets should have an edge with home-field advantage and a healthier roster, but betting trends paint a different picture. The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five straight games against winning teams, while the Texans shine as road underdogs, boasting a 10-4-1 record against the spread (71%).
I posed the question on this week's BettingPros: NFL Week 9 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (2024). Should the Jets be favored?
Defensively, the Jets have struggled since firing former head coach Robert Saleh. Their pressure rate has fallen from third in the league (40.1%) in the first five weeks to just 35.1% since Week 6. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich has increased aggressive tactics, deploying 6-man fronts nearly three times as often and increasing blitz frequency. However, these changes haven't patched up their shaky run defense, which has missed 88 tackles this season, the fourth-most in the NFL.
For Houston, injuries to their receivers mean they'll likely rely heavily on running back Joe Mixon and tight end-heavy formations. Since receiver Nico Collins went on IR, the Texans have ramped up 12 personnel usage to 42.6% of their offensive plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Look for Houston to ground and pound with Mixon, leaning on rookie tight end Cade Stover, who lines up in the backfield on 17.6% of his snaps per Next Gen Stats.
Stover has played nearly 50% of the snaps the last three games, and is coming off a season-high three targets in Week 8. As Stroud's former teammate at Ohio State, we could see the ol' Buckeyes connection on display Thursday night. +4800 to score first.
Meanwhile, the Jets’ offense remains inconsistent and unpredictable. Their best shot at victory lies with playmakers Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams. Hall, a high-risk, high-reward runner, could exploit a Texans defense that struggles against loaded boxes, allowing the second-highest explosive run rate (19.7%) in these situations, per Next Gen Stats.
Defensively, both teams rank in the top four in fewest yards allowed per game, so this Halloween clash is set to be a defensive slugfest. The Texans' defense, led by head coach DeMeco Ryans, allows just 5.4 yards per attempt on quick passes, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. The Jets, too, rank sixth in pressure rate (38.3%) and hold opponents to the league's lowest success rate (22.8%) when causing pressure, according to Next Gen Stats.
Expect this game to go down to the wire. Note that 12 of Houston's last 15 wins have come by seven points or fewer, making a close finish likely on Halloween night. While I lean towards the Texans as underdogs, given the offensive inconsistencies on both sides, I'd prefer to bet on the under at 42 points.
Props:
Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight road appearances. Mixon has at least 80 rushing yards in all four of his healthy games played this season. Only one RB that has faced the Jets this season has finished under their RB rushing projection.
Tyler Conklin has scored a touchdown in each of the Jets’ last two games. Davante Adams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his two previous appearances at MetLife Stadium. The Conklin touchdown streak won't sustain this pace. With Allen Lazard potentially out another week, Adams and Aaron Rodgers finally connect for their first touchdown score as Jets.
According to Next Gen Stats, Garrett Wilson has upped his production since the arrival of Davante Adams, averaging 0.9 more yards per route run despite recording a 3.5% lower target rate.
Wilson has also seen more targets down field, nearly doubling his air yard per target (7.9 to 14.7). Wilson has caught five of his 12 targets of 10+ air yards since Week 7, totaling 128 yards (Weeks 1-6: 7 receptions for 121 yards).
As I wrote in this Week's 9 Fantasy Football Forecast, through two games with Adams...Wilson leads the Jets in target share (26.5%), air yards (266), receiving yards (174, 87 per game), and receptions (10, 5 per game). But even though Wilson's volume has dropped since Adams' arrival - targets and catches both down - his yards and overall efficiency have increased with another weapon added to the offense for the defense to account for.
Adams hasn't scored yet (two red-zone targets last week), which is his main appeal attached to Rodgers. That will change on Thursday night. The Texans have the 30th-ranked red-zone defense this season, allowing the second-highest passing TD rate (second-most TDs to WRs).
In C.J. Stroud's last three road games, he has finished with under 222.5 passing yards. He is under this number in his last road games dating back to 2023, in matchups, not against the Colts. Given all the injuries to the WRs against a defense that ranks second in fewest passing yards per game, this is an easy under prop to HAMMER.
My Picks: