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Texans vs. Ravens NFL Playoffs Odds & Picks: Divisional Round (Saturday)

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Let's dive into the two-game Saturday marquee NFL slate for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks between the Houston Texans vs the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers vs the Green Bay Packers. Below we dive into Texans vs. Ravens.

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Saturday Football Betting Primer: Texans vs. Ravens

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens (-9)

Sides:

  • The Texans are 70% ATS as an underdog. 6-4 overall. They went 1-1 overall and straight up as an underdog without C.J. Stroud during his two-game absence.
  • Seven of their last 9 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The Ravens starters have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last seven games following a loss.
  • Baltimore is 64% ATS as a favorite.
  • The Ravens have lost each of their last six home games in January.

Game Total:

  • The Texans have gone under in 11 of their last 16 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • The Ravens rank 3rd in points per game overall and second at home (31.9).
  • Baltimore is 5-4 toward the over at home this season, averaging just under 50 points per game.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in two of the last 3 games (3 of the last 6).
  • Each of the Ravens’ last 10 January games at M&T Bank Stadium has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams averaged 44.5 points per game.
  • Baltimore has the second-best red zone defense in the NFL. No.1 lowest yards per attempt allowed. 8th best defense on third downs.
  • The Texans’ offense ranks 16th in the red zone, 20th on 3rd downs, and third in yards per pass attempt (7.9).
  • The Texans’ last three road games have gone under the total.

Overall:

As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. I expect them to get their best from Lamar Jackson in a marquee home postseason matchup.

For what it's worth, the Texans have also been solid playing teams twice this season, going 3-1 ATS and overall, in their second game against opponents. They swept Tennessee and split with both Indy/Jacksonville/Cleveland. And back in the Week 1 contest, the Texans out-gained Baltimore with the score 7-6 in the first half.

The Texans are vastly overdue for regression regarding their 7-11 O/U record. The Ravens are 8-9 toward the O/U.

No precipitation in this game, but some mild wind and gusts will be present in the 20mph. Ergo, wait until this number falls with more fear about wind, causing an overreaction from the market.

As good as the Ravens are, the Texans can hang around to cover this massive spread as road underdogs. 70% ATS as underdogs, is too good to pass up, as is Stroud with 9.5 points.

As for the total, I love the over. It's down to 43.5 despite these teams averaging 44.5 points per game this season.

Props

Devin Singletary once again spearheaded the Texans backfield in the wildcard round, rushing 13 times for 66 yards and 1 TD (had another big run called back due to holding). He logged 72% of the snaps. Dameon Pierce had 3 carries and played just 13% of the snaps. Singletary's stranglehold on the RB1 job in Houston has not budged.

I am leaning toward the OVER on Singletary's rushing line prop set at 54.5 rushing yards this week. He's gone over in 5 of his last 6 games. And the Ravens' run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed nearly 100 rushing yards per game to RBs at the second-highest yards per carry (4.8). 6 of the last 7 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.

Dalton Schultz played the most tight end snaps in the Wildcard Round and scored on his lone catch for a 37-yard touchdown. The impending free agent dropped his other target. Brevin Jordan took his one catch 76 yards to the house. Jordan's a YAC monster who also played 50% of the snaps. Would be leaning toward the under on Schultz's receiving prop this week. Just not involved enough consistently in the offense, and the matchup is tough versus Baltimore.

I like the over on the total in this game, along with more than on C.J. Stroud's 245.5 passing prop. Gone OVER in back-to-back games. The Ravens' first-team defense has allowed 240-plus yards to 3 of the last 4 QBs they have faced. In Stroud's first game in the NFL, he threw for 242 against the Ravens on the road.

If Mark Andrews doesn't play, we should see another massive game for tight end Isaiah Likely. The Texans allow the most receiving yards to tight ends this season (65). Take the MORE THAN on Likely's 43.5 receiving yards prop. He has 40 or more yards in 5 straight games as the starter.

The Ravens don't allow many WR yards, but they bleed targets (2nd) and receptions (12th). Watch for low reception props on ancillary Texans WRs like John Metchie III with Noan Brown placed on IR.

Take the under on Gus Edward's 45.5 rushing yards. Still somewhat in a committee with Justice Hill.

And since Week 8, just three RBs have surpassed their rushing totals against Houston.

My Picks:


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