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Texas A&M vs. Arkansas: College Football Week 5 Odds & Picks (2023)

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Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for the Week 5 college football game: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas

Texas A&M (-6.5) at Arkansas

ATL: A&M -9.2

Arkansas has two big tree-top problems heading into this game before we even get into the on-field handicap: Hogs RB Rocket Sanders looks likely to be out again, and the Hogs are one of the most penalized teams in the country.

Arkansas averages nine penalties a game (No. 124) for an average of 78.5 YPG lost (No. 123). In conjunction with the offensive line's struggles (No. 119 in pressures allowed and No. 120 in blown block percentage) and QB KJ Jefferson's propensity to get sacked (No. 112 in sacks per dropback), you can see why Arkansas faces third-and-long situations at a top-10 national percentage.

Arkansas' defense, meanwhile, is a boom-or-bust operation. It ranks No. 59 SP+ overall despite ranking No. 2 in havoc rate. That's because it’s aggression can come back to bite it: The Hogs' defense ranks No. 112 IsoPPP and No. 105 in marginal explosiveness

Arkansas HC Sam Pittman said on Tuesday that while Sanders has returned to practice in a limited capacity - that happened last week - he is still not able to cut. Unless there's a dramatic change with that over the next 48 hours, he's not going to play.

Texas A&M's No. 9 SP+ defense shouldn't have a problem with the KJ Jefferson Show that Arkansas' offense turns into when Rocket is out.

Meanwhile, A&M's No. 25 SP+ offense profiles to light up Arkansas. The Aggies rank No. 28 in IsoPPP and No. 24 in big-play rate. And because A&M ranks a solid No. 41 in havoc rate allowed on offense, they should be able to both deal with and take advantage of Arkansas' hair-on-fire style.

A&M QB Connor Wiegman was announced out for the year on Wednesday. As I discussed with Scott Bogman on our mid-week BettingPros podcast, I do not care for the purposes of this handicap. QB2 Max Johnson is a seasoned veteran with a sterling career 42/7 TD/INT rate, including 7/0 since his transfer from LSU to College Station.

The pick: A&M -6.5 (play to -9.5)

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.


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