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Texas A&M vs. Penn State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks

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March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, preview and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: Texas A&M vs. Penn State.

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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: Texas A&M vs. Penn State

Texas A&M vs. Penn State Odds, Spread & Match Up Overview

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Texas A&M 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

No two teams were more different this year than first-half Texas A&M and second-half Texas A&M. Since New Year’s, the Aggies have been a top-10 team, per Bart Torvik, dropping only three regular-season games in 2023.

It makes sense that this team took a while to come around. Texas A&M takes a lot of charges, draws a lot of contact and runs a lot of sets that might require a build-up of muscle memory. Buzz Williams’ team scores over 25 percent of its points from the free throw line, which causes a lot of problems for defenses trying to stay out of foul trouble. We saw Brandon Miller and Mark Sears both foul out of the regular-season finale vs. Alabama. Being able to manufacture bench minutes for opponents’ best players is a recipe for success, and Texas A&M is the best at cooking that up. Wade Taylor is one of the best point guards in the SEC, if not all of Division I, with his ability to facilitate, guard and score. Taylor is a dynamic player who gets to the charity stripe at one of the highest rates in the nation and capitalizes on his opportunities.

The Aggies are a talented team all around, ranking in the top 40 both offensively and defensively. They rebound the lights out and allow very little inside, with 42 percent of opponent points coming from inside the arc. Texas A&M’s weaknesses show in three-point scoring and three-point defense, but even those flaws don’t hold them back too much. It will be interesting to see if the second-half Aggies squad shows up in the tournament. We saw A&M make a deep NIT run last year after its NCAA bubble burst, so I wouldn’t be surprised by yet another deep run.

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Penn State 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

After losing four straight Big Ten games to start February, the Nittany Lions’ tournament hopes seemed to be vanquished. But after winning five of their last six games and making it to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament, they sneak into the NCAA Tournament as potentially one of the most dangerous double-digit seeds out there.

Jalen Pickett leads the charge for Penn State as one of the best guards in the nation, ranking in the top 10 of KenPom’s player of the year standings. Pickett can do it all, scoring efficiently on both two-pointers and three-pointers and posting one of the highest assist rates in the country. His ability to draw defenders before kicking it to Penn State sharpshooters Seth Lundy, Andrew Funk or Camren Wynter is a big reason why this offense ranks in the top 25 in adjusted efficiency. Oh, and all three of those players I just mentioned shoot above 40 percent from beyond the arc. The Nittany Lions take care of the ball and shoot a ton of those deep shots. With their dependence on the three, they are one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation.

The Nittany Lions have a wide range of possible tournament outcomes. Penn State could lose its first game by 20 points or make a deep tournament run led by Pickett. I’m guessing the latter is the more likely outcome. Penn State’s talented shooters are too good to all go cold at the same time, and this team seems to be peaking at the right time. The Nittany Lions’ sub-100-ranked defense caps their ceiling a bit, but this should be an exciting team to watch this March.

Texas A&M vs. Penn State 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions

As a fan of both of these teams, this seems to be a ridiculously unfortunate draw for both squads. Coming off championship title game losses for both organizations, they are still playing their best basketball right now, with the Aggies ranking sixth in Bart Torvik since Jan. 1 and Penn State winning eight of their final 10 games to make the tournament.

This is an unfortunate draw for Texas A&M, which has an interior-based defense, allowing opponents to earn 37 percent of their opponent points to come from beyond the arc. Penn State shoots at a 38 percent clip from deep - ninth best in the nation. The Nittany Lions also defensively do a solid job at avoiding sending opponents to the charity stripe, something the Aggies depend on heavily. But with Penn State's dependence on three-pointers, they aren't the most consistent team. Especially on a neutral court with different rims, they might struggle at the start. My advice would be to tease a team against the spread five points either way. A live bet for Penn State to make a comeback if they are down is a good call too as we have seen some major comebacks from the Nittany Lions plenty of times in the past, and Texas A&M is the perfect opponent to do it against.

Texas A&M vs. Penn State 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks

Penn State +3

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