Texas Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech College Football Best Bets & Predictions (Wednesday)
Check out Thor Nystrom’s best bets for this week’s college football bowl games. And here’s a closer look at the Texas Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 25): 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%)
2022 combined: 96-70-4 ATS (57.8%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Texas Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech College Football 2022 Best Bets & Predictions
Wednesday, December 28 | 8:00 PM
Ole Miss (-3.5) vs. Texas Tech | Total: 70
ATL: Miss -4.1 | ATT: 72
Ole Miss
- QB Donovan Smith (Transfer portal)
- QB Behren Morton (Injury)
- TE Mason Tharp (Injury)
- OG Michael Shanahan (Transfer portal)
- OT Ethan Carde (Transfer portal)
- DT Philip Blidi (Transfer portal)
- LB Tyree Wilson (Injury)
- LB Bryce Ramirez (Injury)
- S Reggie Pearson Jr. (Transfer portal)
- S Kobee Minor (Transfer portal)
LB Wilson had posted seven sacks and 15 TFL prior to suffering a season-ending injury on Nov. 12 against Kansas. That was a devastating loss – no other way to put it. Wilson, headed to the NFL next season, is a favorite of ESPN’s Jordan Reid. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound edge terror currently ranks No. 11 overall on Mel Kiper’s big board.
QB Tyler Shough is expected to start with youngster QB Behren Morton still on the mend from his ankle injury. Morton is considered questionable – if he’s active, it’ll be as the QB2. The Red Raiders will be without the services of QB3 Smith, who transferred to Houston in hopes of taking over for the departing Clayton Tune.
Texas Tech starting senior OL Weston Wright announced he’s heading to the NFL after the bowl game, but that he would play in it. TE Tharp, a starter, is questionable with an undisclosed injury. OG Shanahan and OT Carde were buried on the depth chart.
DT Blidi was a rotational lineman whose work can be replaced. LB Ramirez is out for the season after suffering a serious leg injury in his first career start back in September.
S Pearson was a starter who played heavy snaps, but PFF panned his work with a ghastly 53.4 grade. Nickel defender Minor likely would have been in line for heavier snaps in the bowl – especially after he played quasi-starter minutes the last two games – but he’s also looking for a new home.
Texas Tech
- QB Luke Altmyer (Transfer portal)
- RB Isaiah Woullard (Transfer portal)
- WR Dannis Jackson (Transfer portal)
- WR Bralon Brown (Transfer portal)
- TE Michael Trigg (Injury)
- OG Jalen Cunningham (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Demon Clowney (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Brandon Mack (Transfer portal)
- LB Jaron Willis (Transfer portal)
- CB Miles Battle (Transfer portal)
- S MJ Daniels (Transfer portal)
- K Caden Costa (Suspension)
TE Trigg was a difference-maker, but he was knocked out for the campaign in early October with a broken collarbone. K Costa has been serving a one-year suspension for use of banned substances. It’s possible he could be cleared for return in the bowl, but it’s unclear if that will happen.
QB Altmyer, WR Jackson, and DE Clowney were all reserves. CB Battle, however, played 322 snaps in all 12 regular season games, posting 33 tackles with five passes defended and an interception.
The rest of the players above wouldn’t have seen big roles in this game – it’s possible HC Lane Kiffin pushed most of them out the door to clear room for his already-famous portal machinations.
Coaching News
Mississippi OL coach Jake Thornton left to join Hugh Freeze’s Auburn staff.
Handicap
Don’t blink. Both teams rank top-5 in adjusted tempo. And this bowl is being played at one of the postseason’s fastest indoor tracks in NRG Stadium.
Ole Miss is a run-happy team with a powerful one-two rushing punch. The Rebels rank No. 3 with 261.6 YPG rushing.
Texas Tech’s run defense has a troubling tendency to get nicked for explosive ground gains. And, if we’re being honest, this is a bugaboo that stretches to the entire Red Raider defense.
The Rebels will benefit from several quick scoring drives. Mississippi ranks No. 7 in explosive play rate offensively, while Texas Tech ranks No. 101 in the same category defensively.
Meanwhile, while Texas Tech’s pass-happy offense – directed by first-year OC Zach Kittley, who tutored QB Bailey Zappe at WKU last year – was up-and-down from an efficiency standpoint this year as it cycle through three different quarterbacks while learning a new system, it finished the regular season No. 12 with 309.8 YPG passing.
With veteran QB Tyler Shough stabilized at the end of the season, the aerial attack started clicking again. The Red Raiders won three straight to close the year, covering all three.
Mississippi won’t have much success slowing down Shough and Tech’s up-tempo aerial assault. The Red Raiders have no shot of stopping Jaxson Dart and Quinshon Judkins on the fast track.
The margins on the side are too close for us to call. But this matchup screams over, and, lucky for us, it’s a reasonable price and no key offensive pieces on either side opted out.
The pick: Over 70
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