Navigate

Texas Tech vs. Baylor: College Football Week 6 Odds & Picks (2023)

by |

Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Texas Tech vs. Baylor.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Texas Tech vs. Baylor

Texas Tech (+1.5) at Baylor

ATL: Tech -4.3

In the days since I made this bet, Texas Tech has become the small favorite. Though there are still multiple books where you can get pick 'em as of this typing.

The advanced data on this game all points to Tech being the right side. So our handicap really boils down to one simple-yet-unanswerable-in-advance question: What do we make of the final quarter-plus of last week's UCF-Baylor game?

With four minutes left in the third quarter, Baylor was a 1-3 team that was getting mauled 35-7. But facing the prospect of a 1-4 start, the Bears roared back with 29 consecutive points to steal a win, the largest comeback in Baylor history.

We have standard caveats to qualify that: UCF was playing with its backup QB. And the Knights, despite their collapse - it was also the largest comeback allowed in UCF's history - still had a 59-yard field goal attempt as time expired to win the game... it of course missed.

But there are also a few potential forward-focused indicators that Baylor may have stumbled upon a few things. QB Blake Shapen - unequivocally superior to QB2 Sawyer Robertson as it turns out - is healthy again, and Baylor shifted into a hurry-up offense that Shapen looked far more comfortable in. After the game, HC Dave Aranda said the Bears will roll with that tempo going forward as a base offense.

That gives hope of offensive improvement. But it's a longshot from guaranteeing it. Despite the killer end to the UCF game, Baylor's offense still ranks No. 114 in success rate and No. 125 in points per scoring opportunity.

The offensive line has been a huge problem, with the third-worst blown block rate in the entire FBS. That's one reason Baylor's run offense has greatly underwhelmed. Shapen has taken big hits in every game he's been active in, including numerous ones last week in his return against UCF. Shapen is always one bad hit away from ceding to Robertson again.

And we haven't even mentioned that Baylor's defense and special teams have sagged to No. 68 and No. 103, respectively. I'’m not able to provide similar hope for improvement in those areas.

Baylor's CBs have been solid, but the Bears' safeties regularly make mistakes, leaving freebie explosive-play opportunities for the offense. The defensive line is decent but undersized - there's no occupier even close to a NT Siaki Ika on this roster, and setting the edge has been a legitimate issue. The linebacking corps lacks foot speed, which has made tall tasks of both helping on outside-the-tackle runs and also carrying RBs and TEs in coverage.

This week's opponent, Texas Tech, is coached by former Baylor assistant Joey McGuire, who helped bring several current players on Baylor's roster to Waco. Texas Tech already has strong offensive play-calling - OC Zach Kittley is one of the sport's biggest rising stars - and figures to have a detailed plan of attack to exploit Baylor's several pronounced defensive weaknesses.

Tech's run defense has been very good this fall - in part because of the team's No. 16 standing in tackle rate - and figures to be able to make Baylor's finding-its-way offense play one-handed. The way you beat Tech's pass defense is through explosive plays. But that aspect of Baylor's offense, due to the OL issues and a mediocre WR corps, has thus far been dormant.

Both of these teams enter 2-3. The loser's bowl hopes will take a mortal blow. But make no mistake: Tech has been the easily superior team to this point, collecting 3.4 second-order wins. Tech finished with a higher than 30% postgame expectancy in every game, including the Oregon one, and was above 84% in three games, including the ultimate loss to Wyoming.

Baylor, on the other hand, has 1.7 second-order wins. Unless Baylor's offense plays four quarters like they did the final 18 minutes of the UCF game, we think Dave Aranda's crew is in trouble.

The play: Texas Tech +1.5 (play to Tech -2.5)

-Thor Nystrom

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App