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Texas vs. Penn State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

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Well, the first day of the 2023 NCAA Tournament was something, huh? The Midwest Region avoided most of the carnage Thursday — although anyone who has Houston going far in their brackets has some serious concern. Ultimately, the top two seeds, Houston and Texas, advanced, and we saw “upsets” with No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Penn State winning in impressive fashion, although none was a total shocker. Here’s our odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s Round 2 NCAA Tournament matchup between Texas and Penn State.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

Saturday’s Best 2023 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Bets

Here are betting previews and picks for second-round matchups.

(2) Texas Longhorns (-5.5) vs. (10) Penn State Nittany Lions | Total 140.5

The Nittany Lions have won my heart. They almost got the job done in the Big Ten Tournament and exploited a great matchup against Texas A&M, just like I anticipated. The Aggies made it this far thanks to exploiting an SEC conference that can’t shoot from distance. Texas A&M schematically invites teams to beat them from deep, and that’s just what Penn State did, going 13-for-22 from deep.

Now, Penn State will face a stiff test against the Big 12 Tournament champions. And once again, I like the matchup for the red-hot Nittany Lions. Penn State will have opportunities to take threes against a Longhorns defense that ranks 112th in 3-point rate and 84th in 3-point percentage defensively. Penn State doesn’t go for offensive rebounds, and they hardly get fouled, but those are two weaknesses that Texas likely won’t exploit. Penn State also takes great care of the ball, which is important against a Longhorns defense that ranks 20th in turnover rate.

Texas could win the battle inside, but Penn State has the potential to turn this game into a 3-point shooting contest, which is a game the Longhorns are more uncomfortable playing. Texas is 253rd in 3-point rate and shoots just 34.6% from beyond the arc.

Penn State isn’t a pushover defensively either, and likely won’t get beat up on the glass like they were against the Aggies. I’ll ride with the Nittany Lions once again.

The pick: Penn State +5.5 (-110)

More Round 2 Picks & Predictions

Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>


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