The Case for the 49ers to Win & Cover Super Bowl LVIII (2024)
The 2023 NFL season culminates in epic fashion on Sunday night with a rematch from Super Bowl LIV, with the 49ers and Chiefs facing off in Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
While some may be surprised that the Chiefs once again emerged as the champion of the AFC despite season-long offensive struggles, the 49ers left little doubt that they would be the NFC's representative all season long.
In this article, I will dive into the matchup and highlight statistics and trends that will be in support of the 49ers to win the game and cover the short spread of -2 (-110) that they are currently favored by.
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Super Bowl Picks: The Case for the 49ers to Win & Cover (2024)
This Is a Complete Team
The 49ers were undoubtedly one of the two most complete, well-rounded teams in the NFL this year, cruising for a majority of the season to the NFC's top seed. While they sustained five losses during the regular season, one of those losses came in a meaningless Week 18 affair with many of their starters benched, and three came in consecutive games prior to their bye week, where they suffered injuries to two critical pieces on the offensive side of the ball in Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. Their only other loss was sustained against a Baltimore team that secured the AFC's top seed with the NFL's leading defense and the presumptive league MVP, Lamar Jackson.
San Francisco ranked second overall in DVOA this season, with the NFL's top offense and fourth-ranked defense by DVOA. They also ranked No. 1 in both yards and points per possession on offense, boasting a rushing attack that ranked top five with an average of 4.8 yards per attempt and a passing game that led the league in net yards per attempt at 8.4. They scored the most rushing TDs as a team in the NFL, gained first downs at the second highest clip (would likely have led the league if they didn't create so many explosives) and took care of the ball, ranking sixth in the league with just 18 turnovers on the season.
An Ability To Run the Rock
Kyle Shanahan's running game profiles extremely well against this Chiefs defense that was really susceptible on the ground this season, ranking in the bottom 10 at defending the run on a per-carry average. There is no reason why the 49ers shouldn't be able to move the ball at will, consistently gaining first downs with the ground game to open up shots in the passing game to their downfield weapons like Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. The fact that the Ravens’ game plan against the Chiefs went so poorly should only add to the 49ers’ willingness to run the football and control the time of possession on offense.
A Defense That Matches Up Well
San Francisco potentially regressed a bit from seasons prior on the defensive side of the ball, but they were still arguably a top-five unit. They gave up the ninth-fewest points per possession while ranking top five in terms of net yards per pass attempt and generating a league-leading 22 INTs. They allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league and ranked inside the top eight in both passing TDs and rushing TDs allowed to their opponents.
They are also more susceptible to the run than they are to the pass (though they were middling this season against the run while the Chiefs were definitively bad). I think they'll be more than happy to concede yards on the ground rather than let Patrick Mahomes pick them apart through the air.
Speaking of Mahomes and the Kansas City offense, are we sure that they're just "fixed" all of a sudden? Though they have admittedly looked better in the playoffs, they beat two teams, the Dolphins and Bills, which were significantly hampered by injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs also scored no in the second half of the AFC Championship game against the Ravens.
Yes, Travis Kelce has been able to turn back the clock, and yes, their receivers have looked much better, especially with the emergence of Rashee Rice. However, I still have major questions about their ability to maintain drives and put up points against this 49ers defense.
Bottom Line
There is no question that the 49ers are the better team in this matchup, with a better point differential than the Chiefs by 116 points. They outperformed Kansas City on both sides of the ball, have more playmakers on both sides of the ball and are the healthier team going into this game. The Chiefs sustained some injuries during their playoff run, most notably to guard Joe Thuney.
Kyle Shanahan has been to this stage before and had double-digit leads in the second half of multiple Super Bowls as both a coordinator and a head coach, so experience will not be an issue. He just needs to find a way to get his team to the finish line this time.
I expect for San Francisco to jump out to an early lead and then pound on the Chiefs with Christian McCaffrey and their phenomenal running game, continually moving the chains and keeping Mahomes on the sidelines. Unlike last year's Super Bowl, I do not think this is a game where the team with the ball last wins. I expect San Francisco to be in control the entire time, and they should have no problem covering this spread as it currently sits under a field goal.
Tends That Support the 49ers To Win & Cover
Trends that support the 49ers in this matchup are as follows:
- 18-12 ATS in their previous 30 games
- 18-12 ATS in their previous 30 games as a favorite
- 18-12 in their previous 30 games played away from home
- 6-4 ATS in their previous 10 playoff games
- 6-3-1 ATS in their previous 10 playoff games as a favorite
- 24-16 ATS in their previous 40 games following a win
- 21-18 ATS in their previous 39 non-divisional games
- Brock Purdy: 16-11 ATS; 16-10 ATS as a favorite in his career
- Brock Purdy: 7-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite of 3 or less points in his career
- Brock Purdy: 8-5 ATS against teams above 0.500 in his career
- Kyle Shanahan: 38-28 ATS away from home in his career
- Kyle Shanahan: 7-4 ATS; 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU) as a favorite in the playoffs
- This technically works for both sides, but teams that win the game have covered the spread 87% of the time in the Super Bowl; if you think the 49ers win the game (the previous trend shows that Shanahan has never lost as a favorite in the playoffs), take the 49ers on the spread.
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