The Case for the Bengals to Win Super Bowl LVI

by Mike Wagenman |
Feb 08, 2022

When I was assigned this article back before the playoffs even began, not once did I ever think I'd be writing about the Cincinnati Bengals in the Super Bowl. But here we are. Nearly a month after the playoffs started with 14 of the NFL's best teams, the Bengals are one of the two left standing as we head to Los Angeles for Super Bowl LVI.

Much of that is thanks to their superstar young quarterback Joe Burrow, who is a victory on Sunday away from being the first quarterback to ever win the Heisman Trophy, a National Championship at the college level, and a Super Bowl at the professional level. But Burrow wouldn't be here without his loaded cast of weapons, his much-maligned turned improved coaching staff, and his defense.

Can the Bengals notch one more victory, the most important victory of all? They're underdogs, but here's why they're fully capable of not only covering the +4.5-point spread but beating the Los Angeles Rams outright.

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The Bengals are rolling, and so is Joe Burrow

Cincinnati has been in playoff mode for months. Playing in the most competitive and tight division in the NFL, they've needed a win every week dating all the way back to Thanksgiving. Including the playoffs, the Bengals have won six of seven and eight of 11, their only loss in the aforementioned seven-game span coming in Week 18 to the Browns when they rested basically everyone of importance.

On the year, no NFL team has covered more games (13) than the Bengals, and only the Cowboys have a better record against the spread than Cincinnati (13-7). The Bengals have also covered in seven straight leading up to Super Bowl LVI. As for their star quarterback Joe Burrow, he's 12-4 against the spread against teams over .500 in his brief NFL career – the most profitable mark for any quarterback in that timeframe. Burrow doesn't back down from anyone, and speaking of Burrow, he's been money for the Bengals during their Super Bowl run.

Joey Covers, Joe Cool, Joe Brrr – or whatever nickname you want to give him – has thrown for 842 yards and a 68.2% completion percentage in the team's three playoff games, and he's led two game-winning drives in the process. Both on the road, too. The environment won't be too big for one of the calmest and most confident quarterbacks on the planet.

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The team who covers usually wins the game outright

Historically, the team that wins the Super Bowl also covers the spread. While favorites and underdogs are nearly split against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowl history – favorites are 27-26-2 ATS – the winner of the big game is an astounding 47-6-2 ATS. That's almost hard to believe, but if you're on the Bengals to cover in this one, make sure to throw a few bucks on the moneyline as well.

The last Super Bowl winner not to cover the spread was the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII.

Cincinnati's defense forces turnovers

Much attention has been paid to the Bengals explosive offense, and rightfully so as they're equipped to match up with anyone in the NFL in terms of skill. But their defense has quietly stolen the show in the playoffs. They held two really strong offenses in Las Vegas and Tennessee to 19 and 16 points, respectively, in the first two rounds, and we all know what happened last week in Kansas City. After getting walked up and down the field for nearly the entire first half, the Bengals defense held the Chiefs off the scoreboard on the final drive of the second quarter, and then shut the league's top offense down to the tune of just three points in the second half and overtime.

How'd they do it? They generated turnovers and shifted momentum. The Bengals picked Patrick Mahomes off twice, they picked Ryan Tannehill off three times the week before and added an interception in the opening round against Derek Carr and the Raiders. Cincinnati finished 13th in the NFL with 1.4 turnovers forced per game, and they've upped that output in the playoffs with six interceptions in just three games. They get it done by generating pressure off the edge with Trey Hendrickson, allowing them to drop seven into coverage. The Rams love to sling it all over the field, but if the Bengals can get to Stafford, they could get the turnovers flowing early.

Kicking isn't for losers after all

As analytics have become more prevalent in the NFL in recent seasons, kickers have become less relevant. Just don't tell the Bengals and Evan McPherson. McPherson has the confidence and swagger we just don't see in kickers anymore, but the rookie out of Florida is proving why kickers matter, especially when you've got a great one.

McPherson has kicked the Bengals to the next round in back-to-back weeks, and in the process has proven that he's not affected by pressure. He's got ice in his veins, and that's something bettors can get behind as the Super Bowl has a tendency to turn up the nerves. Obviously it's nice to have McPherson in your back pocket if the Bengals are in a situation where a field goal can tie or win the game for them on the final drive. But McPherson will prove to be important to the spread as well. Since he's so effective, the Bengals could be more inclined to "take the points" instead of going for it in no-man's-land, just yards into Rams territory. Every point matters when you're trying to cover +4.5.

It's never over for the Bengals

The Bengals aren't going to roll over and die, no matter what the score is or how much they fall behind by. Just take their two meetings with the Chiefs as proof. In both matchups, the most recent of the two coming in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead – one of the most hostile environments in all of sports – the Bengals trailed by 11 at the half. No problem, of course. Cincinnati came back to shock the Chiefs in both of those games, one that clinched the AFC North and the other that punched their ticket to the Super Bowl.

The "never-say-die" mentality is obviously great for any underdog you're backing as a bettor, and it provides extra importance in the Super Bowl. The Bengals are red-hot, and they've got the recipe to not only cover the spread against the Rams, but to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history.

The Pick: Bengals (+4.5)

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

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