Top 3 Things Sports Bettors Learned From NFL Week 4 (2024)
The 2024 NFL regular season has nearly reached the quarter-pole, and we’re kind of getting an idea of what to expect on a week-to-week basis. Of course, when you think you’ve figured out a team, things go a completely different way.
In fact, through Sunday’s Week 4 games, we had 11 different teams sitting at 2-2 against the spread (ATS). That’s a huge chunk of teams in the NFL giving us no lean one way or the other. As far as totals, we’re getting a little bit better of an idea there. A lot of teams are under machines and a lot of teams are over machines. We haven’t had a lot of middle ground in that respect.
What else did we learn from Week 4? Let’s take a look at a handful of the biggest takeaways.
What We Learned From Week 4 of the 2024 NFL Season
Feeling Minnesota
The Minnesota Vikings not only improved to 4-0 straight up (SU), but they’re a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS) after Sunday’s 31-29 victory on the road against the Green Bay Packers.
The Vikings opened the season with a 28-6 victory on the road against the New York Giants, which wasn’t a huge surprise. We know the Giants aren’t that good, although, perhaps, the score was a bit surprising. QB Sam Darnold returned to his old stomping grounds and completed 19-of-24 passes for 208 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the road victory. That quelled some fears, but there was still consternation in the Twin Cities about Darnold being the guy for the whole season. That plan was thrust upon the Vikings once rookie first-round pick QB J.J. McCarthy went down with a season-ending injury in the preseason.
The Vikings raised some eyebrows when it took down the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers 23-17 in Week 2. Although the haters could say the 49ers didn’t have Christian McCaffrey. But Darnold hit WR Justin Jefferson on a 97-yard touchdown pass in that game. The Vikes are just finding ways. Will Reichard has been a surprisingly effective kicker, too. He was 3-for-3 on field goals in that game. WR Jalen Nailor also had a score and has posted touchdowns in his first three games.
Heading into Week 3, the Vikings routed the Houston Texans, another playoff team from last season, by a 34-7 score. Again, the doubters can say Joe Mixon wasn’t available. But, the Vikings won by 27. Give this team their flowers already. Look at what is going right, not what is going wrong. Minnesota went 7-for-12 on red-zone efficiency (58.3%) in the first three games and 3-for-3 in goal-to-go efficiency in Week 3.
What did we learn in Week 4? No excuses, as QB Jordan Love was back for the Packers and there were no major injuries. Minnesota went into Lambeau Field and picked up a 31-29 win to move to 4-0 ATS, with three of those covers coming as an underdog. Minnesota fired out to a 28-0 lead, but Green Bay did make it super close down the stretch, closing to 28-22 early in the fourth quarter. It came down to an onside kick that no one ever covers, and the Vikings held on. Who thought the Vikings would be in first place with Darnold at the helm?
Minnesota committed seven penalties for 55 yards in Week 4. Those penalties will eventually come back to haunt them. It has been a minor concern this season. These Vikings are defying odds and winning outright as an underdog. In a mixed-up, muddled NFL world, the Vikings are about the surest bet out there right now.
Looking California
The Los Angeles Chargers are just 2-2 ATS through four games and the offense has bottomed out in the past two games. After a feel-good 2-0 start by Jim Harbaugh and the new regime, some things new are old again. Or, something like that.
The Bolts managed just 10 points for the second straight game. QB Justin Herbert is super hampered by a multitude of lower-body injuries. He started with plantar fasciitis and then dealt with a high-ankle sprain. He is not looking anywhere close to himself. The Bolts are 0-2 SU/ATS against playoff teams from a season ago and the under is a perfect 4-for-4.
Chargers’ roommates, the Los Angeles Rams, have dealt with debilitating injuries, especially to their wide receivers. This Los Angeles squad has slipped to 1-3 SU/ATS. Their only win came against the San Francisco 49ers, an inexplicable 27-24 comeback victory as a 6.5-point underdog.
In the past, we’ve seen the Rams’ defense be one of the most feared units in the NFL. But, Los Angeles’ defense is pass-friendly this season and it has allowed 24+ points in all four games, with the over cashing in each of the past three contests.
Like the Rams, the 49ers have hit three over results in four outings. When you’re looking for total parlays, look to the Golden State in the late window, although Sunday’s 30-13 win over the New England Patriots cashed the over by just a half or single point, depending on your shop. Still, the 49ers offense hit 30 points for the second time in as many home games. They are averaging 31.0 points per game (PPG) at Levi’s Stadium, with the over 2-0.
Cleveland Outshined
This has been well documented everywhere, but the Cleveland Browns appear to have chosen poorly when trading for QB Deshaun Watson, while backing up the Brink’s truck to shower him with money. However, let’s be fair, the problems of the 2024 Browns are mostly not his fault.
Watson is unable to get up to speed after an 11-game suspension in 2022, which is understandable. Last season, he had a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season. A notable injury for a quarterback. Going into this season there was renewed hope this was the year Watson finally regains the form that made him a top-five quarterback in the NFL during his time in Houston before off-field transgressions derailed his career.
Looking specifically at the Week 4 game against the Las Vegas Raiders, Watson was running for his life all day. The offensive line is in shambles, devastated by injuries. Former Pro Bowler Jack Conklin remains sidelined. Jedrick Wills Jr. was out again. Center Ethan Pocic went down with an ankle injury in-game. There was also an exchange issue with the backup center, which nearly cost Watson and the Browns.
Watson was sacked three times by the Raiders, who were without DE Maxx Crosby, or it would have been much worse. The last play of the game was a microcosm of the Browns’ day and the season. On fourth down, in the red zone, with a chance to win the game, Watson had no protection and the receivers couldn’t get open. Watson was dropped for a sack and the Raiders secured a win.
The Browns have scored 18 or fewer points in all four games, cashing the under three games in a row, while allowing 21 or fewer runs in three straight games. Go low in Browns games until Cleveland shows signs of life on offense. Until that offensive line gets healthy, which might be a while, go low.
Also, it gets worse for Cleveland, as they face the red-hot Washington Commanders in Week 5. Good luck with QB Jayden Daniels.
Make sure to check out our best bets for Tuesday:
Daniel E. Dobish is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Daniel, check out his archive and follow him @danieledobish.