Thor Nystrom’s College Football Power Rankings for Every Team: Week 6 (2023)
College football is finally back, and we have real games with real stakes (and real lines to bet on). A couple of months ago, I released my initial College Football Power Rankings. And now, we'll be updating them throughout the season. See below for my complete College Football Power Rankings for every single team ahead of Week 6.
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Thor Nystrom's College Football Power Rankings: Week 6
Note: In the table below, ATL stands for Adjusted Thor Line.
| Rank | Team | ATL | Conference |
| 1 | Ohio St. | 46.9 | B1G |
| 2 | Texas | 46.7 | B12 |
| 3 | Michigan | 46.4 | B1G |
| 4 | Georgia | 45.9 | SEC |
| 5 | Oregon | 44.9 | P12 |
| 6 | Penn St. | 44.0 | B1G |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 43.7 | B12 |
| 8 | Washington | 43.5 | P12 |
| 9 | Alabama | 43.3 | SEC |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 42.0 | IND |
| 11 | USC | 41.3 | P12 |
| 12 | Florida St. | 40.7 | ACC |
| 13 | Texas A&M | 40.1 | SEC |
| 14 | Ole Miss | 39.3 | SEC |
| 15 | Clemson | 39.1 | ACC |
| 16 | Oregon St. | 38.3 | P12 |
| 17 | Miami (FL) | 38.0 | ACC |
| 18 | LSU | 37.8 | SEC |
| 19 | Tennessee | 37.6 | SEC |
| 20 | Kansas St. | 36.8 | B12 |
| 21 | North Carolina | 35.2 | ACC |
| 22 | UCLA | 35.0 | P12 |
| 23 | Utah | 34.7 | P12 |
| 24 | Kentucky | 34.0 | SEC |
| 25 | Wisconsin | 33.8 | B1G |
| 26 | Duke | 33.0 | ACC |
| 27 | Maryland | 32.6 | B1G |
| 28 | Washington St. | 32.4 | P12 |
| 29 | Syracuse | 32.0 | ACC |
| 30 | Auburn | 31.6 | SEC |
| 31 | Louisville | 31.5 | ACC |
| 32 | Missouri | 31.4 | SEC |
| 33 | TCU | 31.2 | B12 |
| 34 | Texas Tech | 30.9 | B12 |
| 35 | UCF | 30.0 | B12 |
| 36 | Iowa | 29.8 | B1G |
| 37 | Florida | 29.5 | SEC |
| 38 | Arkansas | 29.0 | SEC |
| 39 | Tulane | 27.9 | AAC |
| 40 | South Carolina | 27.6 | SEC |
| 41 | Kansas | 27.2 | B12 |
| 42 | Air Force | 27.0 | MWC |
| 43 | West Virginia | 26.6 | B12 |
| 44 | Fresno St. | 26.0 | MWC |
| 45 | SMU | 25.7 | AAC |
| 46 | Minnesota | 25.4 | B1G |
| 47 | Brigham Young | 25.2 | B12 |
| 48 | Memphis | 25.0 | AAC |
| 49 | Cincinnati | 24.9 | B12 |
| 50 | Rutgers | 24.6 | B1G |
| 51 | Arizona | 24.4 | P12 |
| 52 | Purdue | 24.3 | B1G |
| 53 | Mississippi St. | 24.1 | SEC |
| 54 | Colorado | 24.0 | P12 |
| 55 | California | 23.9 | P12 |
| 56 | Boise St. | 23.7 | MWC |
| 57 | Baylor | 23.6 | B12 |
| 58 | North Carolina St. | 23.3 | ACC |
| 59 | Iowa St. | 23.1 | B12 |
| 60 | Liberty | 23.0 | CUSA |
| 61 | James Madison | 22.5 | SBC |
| 62 | Michigan St. | 22.5 | B1G |
| 63 | Pittsburgh | 22.3 | ACC |
| 64 | Troy | 22.2 | SBC |
| 65 | Illinois | 22.1 | B1G |
| 66 | Toledo | 22.0 | MAC |
| 67 | Marshall | 21.9 | SBC |
| 68 | Oklahoma St. | 21.6 | B12 |
| 69 | Wake Forest | 21.4 | ACC |
| 70 | Houston | 21.0 | B12 |
| 71 | Nebraska | 20.5 | B1G |
| 72 | Virginia Tech | 20.2 | ACC |
| 73 | South Alabama | 20.0 | SBC |
| 74 | Georgia Southern | 19.8 | SBC |
| 75 | Georgia Tech | 19.7 | ACC |
| 76 | UTSA | 19.6 | AAC |
| 77 | Appalachian St. | 19.3 | SBC |
| 78 | Coastal Carolina | 19.2 | SBC |
| 79 | Wyoming | 19.1 | MWC |
| 80 | Western Kentucky | 18.9 | CUSA |
| 81 | Texas St. | 18.7 | SBC |
| 82 | Ohio | 18.5 | MAC |
| 83 | Miami (OH) | 18.2 | MAC |
| 84 | Louisiana | 17.6 | SBC |
| 85 | Army | 17.5 | IND |
| 86 | Georgia St. | 17.4 | SBC |
| 87 | Northwestern | 17.0 | B1G |
| 88 | South Florida | 16.9 | AAC |
| 89 | UNLV | 16.0 | MWC |
| 90 | Vanderbilt | 15.9 | SEC |
| 91 | Indiana | 15.5 | B1G |
| 92 | Arizona St. | 15.2 | P12 |
| 93 | San Jose St. | 14.8 | MWC |
| 94 | Boston College | 14.7 | ACC |
| 95 | Florida Atlantic | 14.2 | AAC |
| 96 | Virginia | 14.0 | ACC |
| 97 | Rice | 13.9 | AAC |
| 98 | Tulsa | 13.7 | AAC |
| 99 | San Diego St. | 13.5 | MWC |
| 100 | Colorado St. | 13.4 | MWC |
| 101 | Utah St. | 13.1 | MWC |
| 102 | East Carolina | 12.5 | AAC |
| 103 | Stanford | 12.2 | P12 |
| 104 | Louisiana Tech | 11.0 | CUSA |
| 105 | Jacksonville St. | 10.2 | CUSA |
| 106 | UAB | 10.1 | AAC |
| 107 | Northern Illinois | 10.0 | MAC |
| 108 | Arkansas St. | 9.9 | SBC |
| 109 | Central Michigan | 9.8 | MAC |
| 110 | Old Dominion | 9.7 | SBC |
| 111 | Middle Tennessee | 9.6 | CUSA |
| 112 | North Texas | 9.3 | AAC |
| 113 | New Mexico St. | 9.0 | CUSA |
| 114 | Navy | 8.9 | AAC |
| 115 | Bowling Green | 8.7 | MAC |
| 116 | Southern Miss | 8.5 | SBC |
| 117 | New Mexico | 7.8 | MWC |
| 118 | Louisiana-Monroe | 7.6 | SBC |
| 119 | Charlotte | 7.5 | AAC |
| 120 | Buffalo | 7.3 | MAC |
| 121 | Western Michigan | 7.2 | MAC |
| 122 | Temple | 6.8 | AAC |
| 123 | Eastern Michigan | 6.2 | MAC |
| 124 | Ball St. | 6.1 | MAC |
| 125 | Hawai’i | 5.9 | MWC |
| 126 | Akron | 5.7 | MAC |
| 127 | Sam Houston | 5.1 | CUSA |
| 128 | UTEP | 4.9 | AAC |
| 129 | Florida International | 4.8 | CUSA |
| 130 | Connecticut | 4.6 | IND |
| 131 | Nevada | 3.2 | MWC |
| 132 | UMass | 2.5 | IND |
| 133 | Kent St. | 0.0 | MAC |
What is a futures bet?
The vast majority of sports betting is done on single games occurring in the near future. Futures bets are wagers on future events and are decided by a large number of games rather than just one. Futures bets are usually on end-of-season results such as a team winning a championship or a player winning an award. It is difficult to win so odds are low and futures bets generally have large payouts.
Strategy for NCAAF Futures
There are so many different ways to take attack the futures market. The futures market allows you to find edges in areas that single-game betting does not. It is important to assign probabilities to what you are betting and compare those to the implied probability the futures market dictates. Whether that is simply just using your own intuition, having your own power ratings numbers, or creating a model to determine the probability of events occurring, it is vital to do so. Before the 2021 college football season, CJ Stroud was +1400 to win the Heisman trophy. The implied odds of that are around 7%. If you give Stroud a 15% chance to win the Heisman then there is some value to bet that. If you give him just a 3% chance, then you may want to look to bet a different player in that market. Futures markets often have heavy juice so there may be no value at all but if you consistently make futures bets with positive expected value, you will win in the long run.
Another strategy for betting NCAAF futures is by hedging. If you placed a bet on Michigan to win the Big Ten before the 2021 college football season at +500, then you had the opportunity to hedge against that bet throughout the season and in the Big Ten Championship game. If you had a Michigan Big Ten Champion ticket at +500, you could've hedged against that bet by betting the Iowa moneyline in the championship game to ensure that you will win regardless of the game's outcome.
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