Thor Nystrom’s College Football Power Rankings for Every Team: Week 8 (2023)

College football is finally back, and we have real games with real stakes (and real lines to bet on). A couple of months ago, I released my initial College Football Power Rankings. And now, we'll be updating them throughout the season. See below for my complete College Football Power Rankings for every single team ahead of Week 8.

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Thor Nystrom's College Football Power Rankings: Week 8

Note: In the table below, ATL stands for Adjusted Thor Line.

Rank Team ATL Conference
1 Georgia 47.1 SEC
2 Michigan 46.5 B1G
3 Ohio St. 45.9 B1G
4 Washington 44.8 P12
5 Penn St. 44.6 B1G
6 Oregon 44.4 P12
7 Texas 44.2 B12
8 Oklahoma 44.0 B12
9 Alabama 43.1 SEC
10 Florida St. 42.5 ACC
11 Notre Dame 41.3 IND
12 LSU 39.6 SEC
13 Tennessee 38.8 SEC
14 Ole Miss 38.6 SEC
15 USC 38.2 P12
16 North Carolina 37.9 ACC
17 Clemson 37.8 ACC
18 Texas A&M 37.4 SEC
19 Oregon St. 36.6 P12
20 Kansas St. 35.8 B12
21 Miami (FL) 35.4 ACC
22 Utah 34.6 P12
23 UCLA 34.5 P12
24 Missouri 33.5 SEC
25 Duke 33.1 ACC
26 TCU 32.7 B12
27 Wisconsin 31.6 B1G
28 Louisville 31.2 ACC
29 Florida 30.8 SEC
30 Maryland 30.4 B1G
31 Kentucky 30.3 SEC
32 Iowa 30.2 B1G
33 Arizona 30.0 P12
34 Texas Tech 29.8 B12
35 UCF 29.7 B12
36 Arkansas 29.6 SEC
37 Tulane 29.0 AAC
38 Kansas 28.8 B12
39 Iowa St. 28.7 B12
40 Washington St. 28.4 P12
41 Auburn 28.2 SEC
42 South Carolina 27.9 SEC
43 Air Force 27.4 MWC
44 Oklahoma St. 26.9 B12
45 West Virginia 26.2 B12
46 SMU 26.0 AAC
47 Syracuse 25.9 ACC
48 James Madison 25.3 SBC
49 Troy 25.0 SBC
50 Rutgers 24.9 B1G
51 Mississippi St. 24.8 SEC
52 Pittsburgh 24.4 ACC
53 Fresno St. 24.3 MWC
54 Nebraska 23.8 B1G
55 Liberty 23.7 CUSA
56 Cincinnati 23.6 B12
57 North Carolina St. 23.5 ACC
58 California 23.5 P12
59 Minnesota 23.5 B1G
60 Michigan St. 23.4 B1G
61 Memphis 23.1 AAC
62 Illinois 23.0 B1G
63 Brigham Young 22.8 B12
64 Houston 22.7 B12
65 Virginia Tech 22.5 ACC
66 South Alabama 22.4 SBC
67 Boise St. 22.3 MWC
68 Colorado 22.2 P12
69 UTSA 22.2 AAC
70 Purdue 21.9 B1G
71 Georgia Tech 21.8 ACC
72 Wake Forest 21.5 ACC
73 Toledo 21.5 MAC
74 Baylor 21.3 B12
75 Coastal Carolina 21.0 SBC
76 Wyoming 19.6 MWC
77 Georgia St. 19.4 SBC
78 Marshall 19.3 SBC
79 Louisiana 19.0 SBC
80 Miami (OH) 18.9 MAC
81 Florida Atlantic 17.6 AAC
82 Ohio 17.4 MAC
83 Appalachian St. 17.3 SBC
84 Georgia Southern 17.0 SBC
85 UNLV 16.8 MWC
86 Western Kentucky 16.7 CUSA
87 Utah St. 16.5 MWC
88 San Jose St. 16.4 MWC
89 Boston College 16.3 ACC
90 Arizona St. 16.0 P12
91 Texas St. 15.9 SBC
92 Vanderbilt 15.7 SEC
93 Northwestern 15.6 B1G
94 Virginia 15.3 ACC
95 Stanford 14.8 P12
96 Tulsa 14.7 AAC
97 Northern Illinois 14.5 MAC
98 Indiana 14.0 B1G
99 San Diego St. 13.3 MWC
100 Jacksonville St. 12.9 CUSA
101 Army 12.8 IND
102 UAB 12.3 AAC
103 Rice 12.0 AAC
104 East Carolina 11.5 AAC
105 New Mexico St. 11.4 CUSA
106 North Texas 11.3 AAC
107 Navy 10.8 AAC
108 South Florida 10.3 AAC
109 Colorado St. 9.8 MWC
110 Old Dominion 9.7 SBC
111 Louisiana Tech 9.1 CUSA
112 Bowling Green 8.7 MAC
113 Middle Tennessee 8.5 CUSA
114 Southern Miss 8.4 SBC
115 UTEP 7.5 AAC
116 Central Michigan 7.2 MAC
117 Western Michigan 7.0 MAC
118 Buffalo 6.7 MAC
119 Hawai’i 6.7 MWC
120 Louisiana-Monroe 6.7 SBC
121 Arkansas St. 6.6 SBC
122 Connecticut 6.6 IND
123 Eastern Michigan 6.5 MAC
124 New Mexico 5.6 MWC
125 Charlotte 5.5 AAC
126 Ball St. 4.9 MAC
127 Sam Houston 4.7 CUSA
128 Temple 3.8 AAC
129 Florida International 3.2 CUSA
130 Nevada 2.4 MWC
131 Akron 2.2 MAC
132 UMass 0.9 IND
133 Kent St. 0.0 MAC
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What is a futures bet?

The vast majority of sports betting is done on single games occurring in the near future. Futures bets are wagers on future events and are decided by a large number of games rather than just one. Futures bets are usually on end-of-season results such as a team winning a championship or a player winning an award. It is difficult to win so odds are low and futures bets generally have large payouts.

Strategy for NCAAF Futures

There are so many different ways to take attack the futures market. The futures market allows you to find edges in areas that single-game betting does not. It is important to assign probabilities to what you are betting and compare those to the implied probability the futures market dictates. Whether that is simply just using your own intuition, having your own power ratings numbers, or creating a model to determine the probability of events occurring, it is vital to do so. Before the 2021 college football season, CJ Stroud was +1400 to win the Heisman trophy. The implied odds of that are around 7%. If you give Stroud a 15% chance to win the Heisman then there is some value to bet that. If you give him just a 3% chance, then you may want to look to bet a different player in that market. Futures markets often have heavy juice so there may be no value at all but if you consistently make futures bets with positive expected value, you will win in the long run.

Another strategy for betting NCAAF futures is by hedging. If you placed a bet on Michigan to win the Big Ten before the 2021 college football season at +500, then you had the opportunity to hedge against that bet throughout the season and in the Big Ten Championship game. If you had a Michigan Big Ten Champion ticket at +500, you could've hedged against that bet by betting the Iowa moneyline in the championship game to ensure that you will win regardless of the game's outcome.


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