Thor Nystrom’s Projected College Football Standings for Every Conference: Week 5 (2023)
My system for projecting team win totals and power rankings also allows me to project things like bowl matchups and final conference standings. Each week, I’ll provide an update on my projected college football standings for every conference based on the previous week’s games and my system’s adjustments. Here are my projected standings for every team in every conference heading into Week 5.
Projected College Football Conference Standings: Week 5
| Team | Conference | Proj Total Ws | Proj Conf Ws | Odds |
| Georgia | SEC | 11.3 | 7.3 | -135 |
| Alabama | SEC | 9.5 | 6.5 | 350 |
| LSU | SEC | 8.6 | 5.6 | 330 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2500 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 8.5 | 4.5 | 2000 |
| Florida | SEC | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3500 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 7.7 | 4.2 | 5000 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1500 |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.6 | 3.6 | 6000 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 5.7 | 3.5 | 20000 |
| Auburn | SEC | 7.0 | 3.0 | 6000 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 5.5 | 2.5 | 12000 |
| Mississippi St. | SEC | 5.2 | 1.2 | 20000 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 2.2 | 0.2 | 25000 |
| South Alabama | SBC | 7.4 | 5.4 | 300 |
| James Madison | SBC | 9.4 | 5.4 | |
| Marshall | SBC | 8.4 | 5.1 | 650 |
| Appalachian St. | SBC | 7.1 | 5.1 | 700 |
| Georgia St. | SBC | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1300 |
| Troy | SBC | 7.3 | 4.8 | 380 |
| Louisiana | SBC | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1000 |
| Georgia Southern | SBC | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1500 |
| Coastal Carolina | SBC | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1000 |
| Texas St. | SBC | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1300 |
| Old Dominion | SBC | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3000 |
| Southern Miss | SBC | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3000 |
| Arkansas St. | SBC | 3.6 | 2.1 | 12000 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | SBC | 3.4 | 1.4 | 10000 |
| USC | P12 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 195 |
| Washington | P12 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 270 |
| Oregon | P12 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 270 |
| Utah | P12 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 600 |
| Washington St. | P12 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 1500 |
| UCLA | P12 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 1500 |
| Oregon St. | P12 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 850 |
| Arizona | P12 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 10000 |
| California | P12 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 8000 |
| Colorado | P12 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 4000 |
| Arizona St. | P12 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 50000 |
| Stanford | P12 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 50000 |
| Air Force | MWC | 10.5 | 6.9 | 260 |
| Fresno St. | MWC | 10.5 | 6.5 | 175 |
| Boise St. | MWC | 7.3 | 6.0 | 200 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 8.3 | 5.3 | 800 |
| UNLV | MWC | 7.2 | 4.2 | 2000 |
| San Diego St. | MWC | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2500 |
| Utah St. | MWC | 5.0 | 3.3 | 6000 |
| San Jose St. | MWC | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1100 |
| Colorado St. | MWC | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1500 |
| Hawai’i | MWC | 3.9 | 2.4 | 6500 |
| New Mexico | MWC | 3.8 | 1.8 | 20000 |
| Nevada | MWC | 1.7 | 1.7 | 15000 |
| Toledo | MAC | 10.3 | 7.4 | 135 |
| Ohio | MAC | 10.0 | 7.0 | 250 |
| Miami (OH) | MAC | 8.9 | 5.9 | 650 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1100 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 5.7 | 3.7 | 850 |
| Ball St. | MAC | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2200 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1200 |
| Akron | MAC | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3400 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1200 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 3.7 | 2.7 | 4000 |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 3.5 | 2.5 | 8000 |
| Kent St. | MAC | 3.1 | 2.1 | 6000 |
| Army | IND | 6.3 | 0.9 | |
| Massachusetts | IND | 3.1 | 0.6 | |
| Connecticut | IND | 2.4 | 0.5 | |
| Notre Dame | IND | 9.4 | 0.0 | |
| Liberty | CUSA | 11.3 | 7.3 | 185 |
| Western Kentucky | CUSA | 7.5 | 5.5 | 100 |
| Jacksonville St. | CUSA | 6.9 | 4.9 | |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1500 |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 4.8 | 3.8 | 650 |
| New Mexico St. | CUSA | 5.9 | 3.4 | 2100 |
| Sam Houston | CUSA | 3.7 | 2.8 | |
| UTEP | CUSA | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1000 |
| Florida International | CUSA | 4.9 | 1.9 | 5000 |
| Ohio St. | B1G | 10.9 | 7.9 | 180 |
| Michigan | B1G | 10.8 | 7.8 | 125 |
| Penn St. | B1G | 10.7 | 7.7 | 350 |
| Wisconsin | B1G | 9.1 | 7.1 | 1200 |
| Iowa | B1G | 8.9 | 5.9 | 1000 |
| Maryland | B1G | 8.5 | 5.5 | 6000 |
| Illinois | B1G | 5.8 | 3.8 | 5000 |
| Minnesota | B1G | 5.2 | 3.4 | 4000 |
| Nebraska | B1G | 5.1 | 3.1 | 10000 |
| Rutgers | B1G | 5.9 | 2.9 | 25000 |
| Purdue | B1G | 3.7 | 2.7 | 15000 |
| Northwestern | B1G | 4.1 | 2.1 | 50000 |
| Michigan St. | B1G | 3.8 | 1.8 | 12000 |
| Indiana | B1G | 3.4 | 1.4 | 50000 |
| Texas | B12 | 11.3 | 8.3 | -155 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 210 |
| Kansas St. | B12 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 900 |
| TCU | B12 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1800 |
| UCF | B12 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 3000 |
| West Virginia | B12 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 5000 |
| Cincinnati | B12 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 6000 |
| Kansas | B12 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 2500 |
| Texas Tech | B12 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1400 |
| Iowa St. | B12 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 12000 |
| Baylor | B12 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 6500 |
| Brigham Young | B12 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 6000 |
| Oklahoma St. | B12 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 8000 |
| Houston | B12 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 12500 |
| Florida St. | ACC | 10.8 | 7.2 | 110 |
| Louisville | ACC | 8.8 | 6.0 | 1000 |
| Miami (FL) | ACC | 9.9 | 5.9 | 550 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 9.8 | 5.8 | 800 |
| Duke | ACC | 9.0 | 5.7 | 700 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 9.4 | 5.4 | 3000 |
| Clemson | ACC | 7.9 | 4.6 | 400 |
| North Carolina St. | ACC | 5.9 | 3.2 | 2500 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 4.8 | 2.8 | 12000 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 3.8 | 2.8 | 6000 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 3.2 | 2.2 | 8000 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4.7 | 1.7 | 6000 |
| Virginia | ACC | 2.0 | 1.3 | 30000 |
| Boston College | ACC | 3.4 | 1.3 | 35000 |
| SMU | AAC | 9.1 | 7.1 | 275 |
| Tulane | AAC | 10.1 | 7.1 | 175 |
| Memphis | AAC | 9.3 | 6.7 | 410 |
| UTSA | AAC | 6.3 | 5.3 | 500 |
| South Florida | AAC | 5.8 | 4.2 | 4200 |
| Florida Atlantic | AAC | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1000 |
| Navy | AAC | 4.8 | 3.4 | 7000 |
| East Carolina | AAC | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2900 |
| Tulsa | AAC | 5.3 | 3.3 | 3600 |
| UAB | AAC | 4.0 | 3.0 | 6000 |
| Rice | AAC | 5.4 | 2.6 | 2000 |
| Charlotte | AAC | 3.2 | 2.2 | 10000 |
| Temple | AAC | 4.2 | 2.2 | 6000 |
| North Texas | AAC | 3.9 | 2.1 | 3200 |
The standings above also provide insight into projected conference winners. Below are the current College Football Conference Winner Odds at every major sportsbook, with the opening odds and best current odds highlighted on the left side. Compare the dynamic odds below with my projections above to find the best values in real time based on all of the recent movement and where things are headed.
NCAAF Conference Winner Odds
What is a Futures Bet?
A futures bet is a wager on something that will likely take days or weeks to come to fruition. As opposed to a bet on a single game that pays out once it goes final, a futures bet may depend on multiple games or an entire season.
There are many examples of futures bets. For the four major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), one can always find a futures bet on which team will win that sport's respective championship. In addition, there are futures bets on what team will win each division or conference, among others.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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