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Matthew Freedman’s Thursday Night Football Best Bet: Saints vs. Cardinals (Week 7)

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In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update. Here is my pick for Thursday Night Football: Saints vs. Cardinals.

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Thursday Night Football Best Bets: New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

Check out our Saints at Cardinals matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: State Farm Stadium
  • TV: PRIME

Saints at Cardinals: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Cardinals -2
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Saints +110

Saints at Cardinals: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19

  • Spread: Saints - 32% bets, 40% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 46% bets, 80% money
  • Moneyline: Saints - 31% bets, 74% money

Saints at Cardinals: Injuries

Saints: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Game Status
Michael Thomas WR Foot DNP DNP DNP Out
Jarvis Landry WR Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Andrus Peat G Chest DNP DNP DNP Out
Adam Trautman TE Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Marshon Lattimore CB Abdomen DNP DNP DNP Out
Keith Kirkwood WR Ankle DNP DNP LP Questionable
Paulson Adebo CB Knee LP LP LP Questionable
Calvin Throckmorton OT Hip LP LP LP Questionable
Payton Turner DE Chest LP LP LP Questionable

 

Saints: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Ethan Greenidge OL IR
Deonte Harty WR/RS IR
Albert Huggins DT IR
D’Marco Jackson LB IR
Forrest Lamp OL IR
Smoke Monday SAF IR
Trevor Penning OT IR
Alontae Taylor CB IR
P.J. Williams CB IR
Dylan Soehner TE PUP

 

Saints Injury News

Cardinals: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Game Status
Marquise Brown WR Foot DNP DNP DNP Out
Dennis Gardeck LB Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Rodney Hudson C Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
Justin Pugh G Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
Darrel Williams RB Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
James Conner RB Ribs DNP DNP DNP Questionable
Matt Prater K Right Hip DNP DNP DNP Questionable
Jalen Thompson FS Hamstring DNP LP LP Questionable
Trayvon Mullen CB Hamstring LP LP LP Questionable

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Tae Daley S IR
Marquis Hayes OL IR
Joshua Miles OL IR
Nick Vigil ILB IR
Jonathan Ward RB IR
Charles Washington S IR
Cody Ford OL IR-DFR
Antoine Wesley WR IR-DFR

 

Cardinals Injury News

Saints at Cardinals: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Saints Trends

  • 2022 Saints: 2-4 ATS (26.0% ROI for faders)
  • 2022 Saints: 2-1 ATS (27.5% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
  • 2022 Road Underdogs: 31-21 ATS (13.7% ROI)

Cardinals Trends

  • 2022 Cardinals: 3-3 ATS (-4.5 ROI)
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 8-15 ATS (25.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-13 ML (67.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-17 ATS (21.1% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-17-1 ML (45.8% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 4-11 ATS (40.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 6-9 ML (74.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Saints at Cardinals: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Saints Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.013 19 0.023 18 -1
Total SR 47.2% 8 48.9% 30 22
Total DVOA -1.4% 18 6.2% 20 2
Dropback EPA -0.028 23 0.138 27 4
Dropback SR 46.6% 16 53.4% 32 16
Pass DVOA -5.7% 26 16.1% 24 -2
Adj. Sack Rate 7.5% 20 5.4% 27 7
Rush EPA 0.008 7 -0.169 4 -3
Rush SR 48.2% 3 41.4% 17 14
Rush DVOA 15.3% 2 -9.3% 11 9
Adj. Line Yards 5.14 2 4.21 10 8
Yards per Play 5.9 6 5.6 17 11
Points per Game 23.5 11 23.7 22 11

 

Cardinals Offense vs. Saints Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.027 20 0.01 15 -5
Total SR 42.3% 23 42.9% 13 -10
Total DVOA -13.1% 26 4.5% 18 -8
Dropback EPA -0.028 23 0.131 26 3
Dropback SR 42.0% 25 46.5% 20 -5
Pass DVOA -9.3% 27 13.2% 21 -6
Adj. Sack Rate 6.4% 14 6.7% 17 3
Rush EPA -0.027 13 -0.175 3 -10
Rush SR 42.9% 11 37.3% 7 -4
Rush DVOA -8.4% 20 -7.3% 14 -6
Adj. Line Yards 4.35 20 4.61 20 0
Yards per Play 4.8 29 5.6 17 -12
Points per Game 19 22 26.3 29 7

 

Saints at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Andy Dalton

Metric Output Rank
AY/A 7.1 12
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.9 35

 

Career: Andy Dalton

  • AY/A: 6.7
  • QB Elo per Game: -7.3

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.04 25
AY/A 5.6 31
QBR 46.6 19
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.9 8

 

Career: Kyler Murray

  • AY/A: 7.0
  • QB Elo per Game: 64.5

Key Matchup: Saints Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense

The Saints are without WRs Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle) — but I don’t think that matters.

The Saints have averaged 30 points over the past three games with backup QB Andy Dalton, whom I think will start again this week, and Thomas has been out that entire time.

As for Landry, he was out for Weeks 5-6, and in Week 4 he was targeted just twice, so his absence isn’t impactful, and Trautman is just a rotational player.

What really matters for the Saints — in terms of their receivers — is that they have pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara (12-116-0 receiving on 15 targets in two games with Dalton) and sensational rookie WR Chris Olave (No. 1 in the league with 158 air yards and yards after catch per game).

With those two, the Saints should be able to move the ball via the air, especially against a weak Cardinals defense that is No. 32 in pass DVOA against running backs (59.2%) and No. 32 in dropback success rate (53.4%).

Kamara and Olave should get theirs.

Plus, Dalton has been solid in relief of Winston — perhaps solid enough to keep the starting job. He’s No. 12 on the season with a 7.1 AY/A (vs. 6.2 for Winston), primarily because he has been able to avoid the back-breaking interceptions that are a constitutive part of Winston’s game (1 INT, 1.2% INT rate vs. 5 INTs, 4.3% INT rate for Winston).

With Dalton keeping the ball safe and the Saints able to move at will, they should be able to keep this game close against a Cardinals team that tends to start slow and give contests away.

Best Line: Saints +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Saints +1.5

By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

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