Matthew Freedman’s Thursday Night Football Best Bet: Saints vs. Cardinals (Week 7)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update. Here is my pick for Thursday Night Football: Saints vs. Cardinals.
- Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saints vs. Cardinals)
- Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks: Saints vs. Cardinals (Week 7)
- Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saints vs. Cardinals)
- Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Cardinals vs. Saints)
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets: New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Saints at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: PRIME
Saints at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Cardinals -2
- Over/Under: 44
- Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Saints +110
Saints at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Saints – 32% bets, 40% money
- Over/Under: Under – 46% bets, 80% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 31% bets, 74% money
Saints at Cardinals: Injuries
Saints: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Michael Thomas | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Andrus Peat | G | Chest | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Adam Trautman | TE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | Abdomen | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Keith Kirkwood | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| Paulson Adebo | CB | Knee | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Calvin Throckmorton | OT | Hip | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Payton Turner | DE | Chest | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Forrest Lamp | OL | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Alontae Taylor | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Cardinals: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Marquise Brown | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Justin Pugh | G | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Darrel Williams | RB | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Jalen Thompson | FS | Hamstring | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Trayvon Mullen | CB | Hamstring | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Nick Vigil | ILB | IR |
| Jonathan Ward | RB | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR-DFR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR-DFR |
Saints at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Saints Trends
- 2022 Saints: 2-4 ATS (26.0% ROI for faders)
- 2022 Saints: 2-1 ATS (27.5% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
- 2022 Road Underdogs: 31-21 ATS (13.7% ROI)
Cardinals Trends
- 2022 Cardinals: 3-3 ATS (-4.5 ROI)
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 8-15 ATS (25.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-13 ML (67.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-17 ATS (21.1% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-17-1 ML (45.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 4-11 ATS (40.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 6-9 ML (74.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Saints at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Saints Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.013 | 19 | 0.023 | 18 | -1 |
| Total SR | 47.2% | 8 | 48.9% | 30 | 22 |
| Total DVOA | -1.4% | 18 | 6.2% | 20 | 2 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.028 | 23 | 0.138 | 27 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 46.6% | 16 | 53.4% | 32 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.7% | 26 | 16.1% | 24 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.5% | 20 | 5.4% | 27 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | 0.008 | 7 | -0.169 | 4 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 48.2% | 3 | 41.4% | 17 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.3% | 2 | -9.3% | 11 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.14 | 2 | 4.21 | 10 | 8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 6 | 5.6 | 17 | 11 |
| Points per Game | 23.5 | 11 | 23.7 | 22 | 11 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.027 | 20 | 0.01 | 15 | -5 |
| Total SR | 42.3% | 23 | 42.9% | 13 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | -13.1% | 26 | 4.5% | 18 | -8 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.028 | 23 | 0.131 | 26 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 42.0% | 25 | 46.5% | 20 | -5 |
| Pass DVOA | -9.3% | 27 | 13.2% | 21 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 14 | 6.7% | 17 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.027 | 13 | -0.175 | 3 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 42.9% | 11 | 37.3% | 7 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.4% | 20 | -7.3% | 14 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.35 | 20 | 4.61 | 20 | 0 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.6 | 17 | -12 |
| Points per Game | 19 | 22 | 26.3 | 29 | 7 |
Saints at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 7.1 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.9 | 35 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -7.3
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.04 | 25 |
| AY/A | 5.6 | 31 |
| QBR | 46.6 | 19 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.9 | 8 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 64.5
Key Matchup: Saints Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
The Saints are without WRs Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle) — but I don’t think that matters.
The Saints have averaged 30 points over the past three games with backup QB Andy Dalton, whom I think will start again this week, and Thomas has been out that entire time.
As for Landry, he was out for Weeks 5-6, and in Week 4 he was targeted just twice, so his absence isn’t impactful, and Trautman is just a rotational player.
What really matters for the Saints — in terms of their receivers — is that they have pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara (12-116-0 receiving on 15 targets in two games with Dalton) and sensational rookie WR Chris Olave (No. 1 in the league with 158 air yards and yards after catch per game).
With those two, the Saints should be able to move the ball via the air, especially against a weak Cardinals defense that is No. 32 in pass DVOA against running backs (59.2%) and No. 32 in dropback success rate (53.4%).
Kamara and Olave should get theirs.
Plus, Dalton has been solid in relief of Winston — perhaps solid enough to keep the starting job. He’s No. 12 on the season with a 7.1 AY/A (vs. 6.2 for Winston), primarily because he has been able to avoid the back-breaking interceptions that are a constitutive part of Winston’s game (1 INT, 1.2% INT rate vs. 5 INTs, 4.3% INT rate for Winston).
With Dalton keeping the ball safe and the Saints able to move at will, they should be able to keep this game close against a Cardinals team that tends to start slow and give contests away.
Best Line: Saints +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Saints +1.5
By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
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