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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Bears vs. Panthers (Week 10)

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Welcome to the Week 10 Thursday Night Preview, proudly presented by BettingPros. I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to be your guide through the NFL's thrilling world of wagers, offering expert insights and recommendations on everything from sides to totals, and sometimes even player props that could lead to a game-changing single-game parlay. In this edition, we're focusing on the Week 10 Thursday night showdown between the Chicago Bears and the Carolina Panthers.

Whether you're a seasoned betting pro or just starting to explore the exciting realm of NFL wagering, this one-game primer is tailored to provide valuable insights and picks for the upcoming matchup and boost those bankrolls into the weekend. Get ready to dive headfirst into the NFL season with a betting perspective as we dissect the CHI vs. CAR matchup, pinpointing our favorite bets, top picks, and enticing player props.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers – CHI -3.5

After it appeared that the Carolina Panthers looked to be on the rise, they got exposed at home versus a beatable Colts defense. Bryce Young looked all out of sorts, throwing three interceptions - two pick-sixes - against the Indianapolis heavy zone defense.

The Bears’ defense runs a slightly more balanced coverage unit between man and zone schemes, so we should see a better outing for Young. Still, it is tough to go back to Carolina in any capacity based on how poorly they have played on the road this season. 0-4 “road warriors” in 2023.

The Panthers’ defense still ranks poorly allowing explosive running plays, even while limiting explosive passing plays.

The Bears’ defense ranks toward the bottom of the league in forced turnover-worthy play rate to opposing QBs. However, with the addition of Montez Sweat on the defensive front, the Bears were able to generate some pressure versus the Saints last week.

The Panthers defense is banged up. Outside linebacker Brian Burns and cornerback CJ Henderson, both left Sunday’s game against Indianapolis with concussions. Don't think we see either with the short turnaround. Burns is the best player on the Panthers’ defense, and they will struggle to generate pressure without him. Henderson will likely be replaced by cornerback Dicaprio Boote - a former 2021 undrafted free agent.

The Bears have gone under their projected total in their last 3 of 4 games without Justin Fields - no game exceeded 42 points, 39.5 average - who remains day-to-day with his thumb injury. I don't expect him to play. Think Fields' availability is likely more gamesmanship, so the Panthers must prepare for two different QBs.

Even so, the Bears’ offense has been solid with Tyson Bagent under center, as they totaled 368 total yards on a strong Saints defense on the road. That was the second-most yards the Saints allowed in any game this season - the most they have allowed at home. More importantly, the Bears were able to run the ball.

When Chicago has been able to establish an effective ground game - as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas and New Orleans, but not vs. the LA Chargers - their offense has been effective and they have played games tight. 2-2 ATS and 1-3 straight up. Considering the Panthers boast the league's worst run defense in DVOA, it's a great spot for the Bears offense at home. Khalil Herbert may also return – practiced in full on Tuesday – giving Chicago another explosive weapon in the ground attack.

The Panthers are also the league's fourth-worst defense vs play action this season. Bagent has the highest completion percentage increase of play action throws (+27%) and the 5th-highest yards per attempt boost (4.4) over the last four weeks on play action tosses.

The Bears’ defense has also been playing much better than they did at the start of the year. Last 3 games, they have allowed the sixth-lowest yards per play. Last two home games they have limited their opponents to under 240 passing yards.

Their run defense remains top-notch and another week of Sweat can't hurt their chances either. The issue on defense has been their red-zone defense which ranks dead last in the NFL. It's been bad even over their recent stretch of improved play. But Carolina ranks 24th in red-zone trips per game this season.

The Bears can make Carolina one-dimensional, and that just makes it tough for a rookie QB playing on the road.

For the total...

The Panthers have gone OVER the projected game total in their last three road games. But it's been against the Dolphins, Lions and Seahawks (a game where Andy Dalton started at QB).

Considering the under-trend with Bagent at QB for Chicago, I'd shoot for the under in this spot in prime time if he is ultimately the starting QB. Note if the "insiders" thought that Fields would play, the total wouldn't have fallen from 41 to 39.5 since it opened.

For props, I am firmly backing the UNDER on Chuba Hubbard's rushing prop at 45.5. The last 7 RBs the Bears have faced have gone UNDER their projected rushing total. On the year, the Bears have allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs. No one RB has surpassed 45 yards against them since Week 3. Not to mention, we could see more of a split between Hubbard and Miles Sanders after the latter saw more work in the second half of last week's game as I mentioned in the Fantasy Football Week 10 Fantasy Forecast.

I also like the under on Adam Thielen's yardage prop at 75.5 receiving yards. The Bears defense has allowed one receiver this season to hit 75-plus receiving yards. Thielen has cooled off considerably since his hot start, going under 75 yards in back-to-back games. His projection is 64 yards. And this number has already been bet DOWN on Prizepicks to 72.5. Follow the sharps.

For TD props - I can't resist - I don't want to overthink things. Carolina bleeds TDs to RBs. They have allowed 5 first TDs to RBs (3 rushing, 2 receiving). D'Onta Foreman is the obvious name to bring up, but the Bears use so many different RBs that you can get value with other names between Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert (returning from IR). That's the route I would go.

As for the Panthers side, tight end Tommy Tremble is still undervalued by the market. Playing the most snaps as the TE1 on the offense. The Bears are also allowing the most catches to tight ends this season and the MOST red zone touches to the position. Tremble has scored in 2 of his last 4 games. The Bears have allowed 5 1st passing touchdowns this season.

For even longer odds, look at Stephen Sullivan. Saw 5 targets last week with 3 in the first half. 11-1 for an anytime TD and +5000 to score the first TD. However, he is dealing with a shoulder injury. More reasons to back Tremble should Sullivan miss outright (DNP on Tuesday).

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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