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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Buccaneers vs. Bills (Week 8)

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Welcome to the Week 8 Thursday Night Preview, proudly presented by Bettingpros. I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to be your guide through the NFL’s thrilling world of wagers, offering expert insights and recommendations on everything from sides to totals, and sometimes even player props that could lead to a game-changing single-game parlay. In this edition, we’re focusing on the Week 8 Thursday night showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Whether you’re a seasoned betting pro or just starting to explore the exciting realm of NFL wagering - like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting - this one-game primer is tailored to provide valuable insights and picks for the upcoming matchup and boost those bankrolls into the weekend. Get ready to dive headfirst into the NFL season with a betting perspective as we dissect the BUF vs. TB matchup, pinpointing our favorite bets, top picks, and enticing player props.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills

The Buccaneers head north on a short week to take on the reeling Buffalo Bills, who have lost two out of their last 3 games while playing poorly in all contests. Tampa has also struggled recently having dropped back-to-back games at home since coming off their bye week.

Somebody is overdue for a bounce-back (unless we get a tie).

Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents' doors off this season. Their two strongest offensive outputs have come at home but against two of the weaker NFL defenses between Las Vegas/Miami. They also struggled versus New York. All those defenses rank outside the top 23 in DVOA.

Tampa Bay's defense is stout and superior to those units. 12th in DVOA. Slightly above average versus both the pass/run. But specifically, they thrive in the red zone defensively as a bend but don't break unit.

They boast the No. 1 red zone defense. They have limited points to high-powered offenses like the Eagles/Lions. Atlanta did not score a TD on any one of their five red-zone trips in Week 7. Although Desmond Ridder practically was giving the ball away with three turnovers in the red zone.

That won't happen every week. Eventually, the Buccaneers won't be on the favorable side of turnovers, as they currently rank 1st in turnover margin per game. They have been running hotter than the sun generating turnovers - 2.2 per game, tied for 2nd overall.

In the two games where Tampa has not won the turnover battle, they are 0-2 straight up with an average defeat of 14 points.

Josh Allen - despite the narrative that he is super careless with the ball - has one turnover-worthy play over the team's last four games. Buffalo also boasts the second-best red-zone offense this season (71.5%).

The Buccaneers' ability to hold teams at bay in the red zone has fueled their 5-1 record toward the under this season.

However, they rank 32nd on the third down conversion rate defensively. Teams can move easily on the Bucs between the 20s, but they tighten up in the red zone. Buffalo should be able to move the ball even amid their struggles as they rank third in third-down conversion rate this season. Note that the last three defenses Buffalo has faced are all above average on third downs.

It's a home spot where you can back the Bills offense as they match up well versus Tampa Bay's blitz-heavy defense.  Allen has the fifth-highest passer rating when blitzed this season.

As a result, the over is firmly in play with Allen and company dictating the pace/game flow. TB is allowing 342 yards per game. Buffalo is 3-2 toward the over when they have posted at least 335 yards of offense. 4-1 in terms of hitting an O/U at 43 points (current line).

Tampa Bay ranks ninth and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate as they continue to lean into the air attack. Buffalo has begun to pick the pace back up with their defense reeling. Over their last three games, they are eighth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.

I also think the Buccaneers have enough offensive firepower to battle back.

Because the Bills defense is the bigger issue at hand. Injuries have caught up with them, as they have allowed season-best performances to the league's two worst offenses (Patriots, Giants) in back-to-back weeks. They have allowed 21 points and 300-plus yards per game on defense in the last three weeks. They have allowed the second-most total yards on defense over their last three games. They forced an OVER game total with the Patriots’ anemic offense...

They also rank 2nd worst term in terms of third downs allowed over that span.

I like the over in this spot at the suppressed number.

As for the sides, I don't love the number on the Bills at -8.5. Likely a spot I'd likely just avoid. Although I ultimately side with the Bills because if they win it will likely be in a comfortable fashion as they have done all season.

And as I alluded to with Tampa Bay - unless they get turnovers- they are sunk. Buffalo has only turned the ball over twice at home this season.

Considering Buffalo ranks 1st in pressure rate, I'd bet they coax Baker Mayfield into a few bone-head decisions that give Buffalo a two-score victory.

Buccaneers vs. Bills Player Props

On the props side, I like the over on the passing for Josh Allen. Tampa Bay is a pass funnel - having faced 36-plus pass attempts per game this season. They give up a ton of yardage/attempts because they cannot get off the field on third downs.

Allen's gone over 260 passing yards in three of his last four games since the defense started to get hit by injuries. Every QB that has faced Tampa Bay this season and has played a full game has gone over their respective passing yards prop.

For the Buccaneers, I am going over on Rachaad White's rushing yardage prop. Because the Bills’ run defense is legitimately that bad. They are allowing an average of 100 yards per game at 5 yards per carry to opposing RBs. White only has one game with fewer than 13 carries. If he sees that same rushing volume, he can easily get to 50 yards-plus.

As for TD props, we didn't hit any in Week 7. But the Buccaneers/Bills are still littered with guys that are primed for TD production that I alluded to in last week's prop article, between Chris Godwin, Cade Otton and Latavius Murray.

TD Regression is calling Godwin's name. He remains one of two receivers this year with 9-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs (Michael Pittman Jr.). Godwin also has the most receiving yards without a TD score this season. Buffalo has allowed a 1st TD pass in two games this season, both passing TDs to WRs. The Buccaneers have the highest passing rate over expectation in the red zone this season.

For Buffalo, Murray is my play. The Buccaneers have allowed the other team to score the 1st TD first in four of five games. BUF has scored 1st TD in four of six games. All passing TDs to WRs. However, I think this is a spot where we see some regression from a passing TD perspective. The Buccaneers are allowing the 24th-lowest pass TD %. Think this is a spot where a Bills RB could punch it in for a score. Murray operates as the primary goal-line back. Damien Harris is on IR. Sets up nicely for Murray to punch TD for the Bills in Week 8.

For the ultimate payout, I'd aim for Godwin’s first TD followed by a Murray anytime TD bet. Note that the longer odds for Murray are linked to Tampa having not allowed a rushing TD to an opposing RB this season. However, Atlanta was in primed possession to do so last week, but Ridder ran it in himself.

My Picks:

My Props:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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