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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Chargers versus Raiders (Week 15)

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Welcome to the Week 15 Thursday Night Showdown, supercharged by BettingPros. I’m Andrew Erickson, your go-to expert in the world of NFL betting. Here, we dive deep into everything from the classic point spreads to the most intriguing player props, setting the stage for potentially game-changing single-game parlays.

This Thursday night, the action heats up with an AFC West matchup - the Las Vegas Raiders versus the Los Angeles Chargers. While it may not have the flashiness of some of the season’s blockbuster games, this clash is a hidden gem, especially for those in the betting space. We’re here to elevate your betting game as we dissect the Raiders vs. Chargers matchup.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Las Vegas Raiders (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders are 6-1 toward the under at home this. 32 points scored on average in their 7 home games. Additionally, five of the Raiders’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line and 7 of the Raiders' last 8 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Chargers? 10 of the Chargers' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

LA is 10-3 toward the under this season.

The under is the play here or it's a complete stay-away spot. The line opened at 34.5 and has only been bet down to 34 points. Unlike last Thursday night where the value was completely sapped with a 30-point total, I feel the under is still the viable move here - even at 34 points.

Easton Stick will start for the Chargers, with Justin Herbert slated to miss the remainder of the season with a fractured finger.

When Stick came off the bench last week, the team's drives were as follows: Fumble/Punt, Downs, 3 and out, Downs, TD and Sack/Fumble. The only TD drive was due to Quentin Johnston ripping off a 57-yard gain followed by a 22-yard gain. If they don't generate a big play, they probably aren't scoring. The Raiders rank 6th in lowest yards per completion faced this season.

Stick was also horrible under pressure. 3 for 9 for 17 yards on 11 dropbacks (2 sacks).

Maxx Crosby is going to have a productive Thursday night game.

As for sides, here are the trends. The Chargers have lost each of their last six road games against AFC West opponents. Against familiar opponents, they don't play well.

The Chargers have also failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games. 1-4 straight up as underdogs.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS over their last 6 games. 3-2 as favorites overall.

The home team has covered 6 of the last 9 Raiders' games (push last week).

The biggest mismatch is that the Raiders defense cannot stop the run. The only problem...the Chargers can't run the football. 27th in points added rushing the ball this season. The Raiders are also one of the worst teams at running the football, and they might be without their starting RB Josh Jacobs.

The Raiders' devotion to rushing – last five games, they boast a -6% pass rate over expectation, 25th in overall pass rate on early downs (46%) – isn't going to help them win, but keep the game low-scoring.

Las Vegas' defense has also been vastly underrated. 16th in total DVOA and 12th versus the pass in DVOA. Only one QB they have faced has thrown for 300-plus yards.

The Raiders are averaging just 16.5 points over Aidan O'Connell's 6 starts. But O'Connell has shown enough in games against the Chiefs, Dolphins and Chargers (Back in his first NFL start) to deserve the benefit of the doubt over a more unproven Chargers QB.

Especially at home against a bad pass defense that ranks 4th in passing yards allowed per game and 5th in passer rating faced.

Raiders -3.

As for props...

Jakobi Meyers has gone under 4.5 receptions and 44.5 receiving yards in four of Aidan O'Connell's 6 starts this season. He's hit the over in back-to-back games, but the larger sample size leans toward the under on Meyers.

Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow has seen his role expanded in the last 3 games. He has hit the over on this receiving/receptions props in 3 straight games. Take the over on his receiving yards props on Thursday night against the Chargers defense that ranks 6th in most fantasy points per game allowed to slot WRs.

Austin Ekeler led the rushing attack with 51 yards on 10 carries and scored a touchdown in Week 14. But Isaiah Spiller rushed 6 times for 19 yards and Joshua Kelley had 3 carries for 6 yards.

It was much more split in the first half with the RB carries 4, 3 and 2 respectively, between the trio of RBs.

Ekeler also caught 5 balls for 49 yards on 7 targets, while seizing a 66% snap share. He's operating on thin margins with the team experimenting with other RBs on early downs. Bet his unders on rushing yards/attempts even against the Raiders' bad run defense. The newfound Chargers backfield committee is why I love the bet on his rushing attempts set at 13.5. He's gone under in the last 3 of 4 contests.

But take the over on his receiving yards. As I pointed out in this week’s Fantasy Football Forecast…Ekeler drew 5 of his 7 targets from Stick. 21% target share. With Keenan Allen banged up, anticipate Ekeler to continue to see heavy pass volume.

Every RB that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop. Keep an eye out for Ameer Abdullah’s props when they get dropped. Abdullah added a notable 12-yard run and 2 targets, while Zamir White chipped in 2 carries for 8 yards back in Week 14. If Jacobs misses Thursday night, we'd likely see White operate on early downs with Abdullah working in the passing game.

Note the last time O'Connell faced the Chargers, he targeted Jacobs 11 times out of the backfield.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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