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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Chiefs vs. Broncos (Week 6)

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Welcome to the Week 6 Thursday Night Preview, proudly presented by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to be your guide through the NFL’s thrilling world of wagers, offering expert insights and recommendations on everything from sides to totals, and sometimes even player props that could lead to a game-changing single-game parlay. In this edition, we’re laser-focused on the Week 6 Thursday night showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, a tantalizing matchup that promises fireworks.

Whether you’re a seasoned betting pro or just starting to explore the exciting realm of NFL wagering - like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting - this one-game primer is tailored to provide valuable insights and picks for the upcoming matchup and boost those bankrolls into the weekend. Get ready to dive headfirst into the NFL season with a keen betting perspective as we dissect the KC vs. DEN matchup, pinpointing our favorite bets, top picks, and enticing player props. So, fasten your seatbelts for a thrilling journey into the world of NFL betting - it’s time to up your game!

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10.5) vs. Denver Broncos

The biggest winner of the Sean Payton-Russell Wilson pairing this NFL season? NFL bettors. I've preached during the preseason about how overrated the Payton acquisition has been for the Broncos, and it's shown up in betting results. 0-5 versus the spread. 1-4 straight up, with their only win coming against a Bears team in a game they should have lost.

The Denver Broncos current QB is a combined 11-22 in his last 33 games.

Continue to fade the overrated Broncos. The Chiefs defense might be the best unit they have faced all season. According to DVOA (No. 11), they are.

We know the Chiefs will win, but the question at hand is whether they will cover the 10.5-point spread.

Note that the Bears were 12.5-point road underdogs vs KC earlier this season. KC covered easily versus DVOA's 31st-ranked defense. And the Bears should have beaten Denver (DVOA's 32nd-ranked defense).

I don't see any situation where the Chiefs offense doesn't dismantle the worst defense in the NFL on Thursday night. A New York Jets offense led by Zach Wilson put up 400 yards on them. And New York could have beaten them by more than 10 points had they not gone 0-5 in the red zone. The Chiefs are 2nd in red zone scoring offense at home, and 7th overall.

And historically speaking, KC has been solid backing heavy home spreads. KC has covered five of their last seven double-digit favored games at home. And they are 1-1 covering double-digit spreads regardless of location this season. Had it not been for a late Patrick Mahomes slide versus the Jets, they would be 2-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.

As for the total at 47.5 points, the trends at KC lean towards the under. Mahomes is 9-3 toward the under at home over his last 13 games (1-1 in the last two home games). Typically, when teams don't push them playing in a hostile Arrowhead environment, they tend to go under the projected total.

However, both DEN-KC matchups last year went over the projected totals (51 and 60). And KC might do so much damage from their side, that it might only take two Broncos TDs to get this game over the total. Even though the Denver defense is historically bad, their offense has dramatically improved from last year. They have averaged over 24 points per game (10th). They only scored 24-plus points four times in all of 2022, twice against the Chiefs.

Denver has gone over its projected total in four straight games with all games eclipsing at least 52 points. Since Nathaniel Hackett was fired, Denver is 6-1 toward the over, with the Broncos averaging 25 points per game on offense. KC is 2-1 toward the over in its last 3 games played.

Player Props

As for player props, the BettingPros Draft Prop Cheat Sheet loves the under on Jerick McKinnon at 8.5 rushing yards. He's been under his rushing projection in all five games played and in 9 of his last 11 games played. With Kadarius Toney back healthy, that creates fewer gadget/designed rushes for McKinnon. The fact that Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are also fully healthy, suggests McKinnon sees little usage as a rusher.

Travis Kelce's props are not out yet but take the under if his receiving line is around the 70-yard mark. He hasn't surpassed 70 yards in any game this season.

As for the WRs in this game, it's so tough to choose between which of the KC WRs will actually be involved. The Chiefs WRs that play the most - see the fewest number of targets.

On Denver's side we have seen the biggest WR outputs - Christian Kirk, and Garrett Wilson - come against zone beaters playing KC. Jerry Jeudy owns a 33% target rate per route run vs zone coverage this season and a 27% overall target share against it since Week 3.

Based on the man-zone splits, this is shaping up to be another big and highly involved game for Jeudy…not Courtland Sutton.

Denver's defense has also been more vulnerable playing zone coverage. Rashee Rice leads all Chiefs WRs in nearly every statical category aside from routes run. Take the over. He's been over 30 yards in three straight games.

As for fun anytime first TD props...it's all about Jerick McKinnon.

Scored 4 TDs versus the Broncos last season. Ranks third overall on the team in snaps inside the 5-yard line. 20-to-1 odds to score the 1st TD smells like value to me (+2000 FanDuel Sportsbook). Denver ranks first in receiving TDs allowed to RBs, third in yards and fourth in catches this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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