Navigate

Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Cowboys vs. Seahawks (Week 13)

by |

Welcome to the Week 13 Thursday Night Showdown, POWERED by BettingPros. I’m Andrew Erickson, your seasoned guide through the high-voltage world of NFL betting. Here, we delve into everything from time-honored spreads to the most enticing player props, which could lead to a pivotal single-game parlay.

Thursday night, we turn our spotlight to an exhilarating NFC clash as the Dallas Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks take center stage. These formidable teams, known for their grit and determination, are set to create a spectacle of football finesse and strategic gameplay. It’s a matchup pulsating with potential, as both teams seek to assert their dominance and edge closer to playoff glory.

Whether you’re an experienced bettor or just stepping into the thrilling realm of NFL betting, our comprehensive guide is crafted to arm you with essential insights and top picks for this high-octane encounter. We’re here to bolster your betting strategy as we dissect the intricacies of the Cowboys vs. Seahawks battle, spotlighting our premium bets, top selections, and must-watch player props. Brace yourself to dive deep into the NFL season from a betting perspective, as we unravel the excitement of this dynamic duel and gear up for a Thursday night brimming with action!

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Cowboys have covered the spread as favorites in 9 of their last 10 games. The overall favorites have covered the spread in 11 of the Cowboys' last 12 games. And although I was off Dallas last week - the Cowboys-Commanders game was close/competitive in the first half until a Sam Howell pick-six doomed them later on - this team has been LIGHT'S OUT - at home.

They have been by FAR the best home team in the NFL.

6-0 ATS at home with an average point differential of +29.0. This team kills bad teams, especially when they play at home. 13 straight home wins.

They also play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL.

That's a potential issue for Geno Smith. Against man coverage this year, Smith ranks 29th in completion percentage (45.5%), 24th in yards per attempt (6.3) and 27th in EPA/play (-0.28) among 31 qualifying quarterbacks.

The game plan for Seattle "should" be able to run the football, as the horrible Carolina offense was successful in that capacity against this fierce defense two weeks ago. Washington - not known for any rushing success - also was decent with over 100 rushing yards against Big D.

However, Seattle’s identity is to not throw the ball around the yard. They will try and run the football here even if they fall behind a bit.

And that makes me more confident that Dallas can cover the large spread at home. Might be too little too late for Seattle to mount a comeback if they stick to their ground game too long. Hurts them that Kenneth Walker is still not practicing. They need that home-run threat.

Since Week 2, Seattle has been 4-5-1 ATS.

The favorites have won 7 of the last 8 Seahawks games. When Seattle is a dog, good things don't happen.

Seattle is 1-4 as an underdog. 0-3 ATS on the road in their last three road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games played (0-4 over last four games).

Dallas is 8-3 ATS this season. Tied with the Eagles/Jaguars for the best ATS record in the NFL.

The other big issue for the Seattle offense has been a lack of TDs scored and third-down efficiency. The red-zone offense ranks 25th in the NFL. Their 3rd down conversion rate ranks 29th.

The Dallas defense has the 22nd-ranked red-zone defense. But they have the second-best defense on third downs (35%). Seattle's offense is going to have trouble sustaining drives.

Although Seattle's pass defense has improved and is solid, too many opportunities for Dak Prescott and company will cause them to break Seattle sooner rather than later.

After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year...they have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in 7 of their last 8 games.

Still, the other issue is their run defense has been up-and-down in recent weeks. Got gashed by both the Ravens and the 49ers. Leonard Williams is also on the injury report.

Over their last five games, Seattle's defense has allowed more than 350 yards on offense in four of them. Dallas has played 6 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense.

As for the sides, I think Dallas must be the play here. They have so much firepower that I can't envision Seattle keeping it within a TD's length with their offensive red-zone/third-down issues.

For the total…

The Cowboys are 4-1 toward the over at home. 6 of the Cowboys' last 7 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last five of six games through the air.

These teams average 46 points this season. The current line is set at 46.5 So I lean slightly toward the under on prime time. Shocker, with another prime time under.

Because for Seattle specifically, the last O/U pushed at 44 versus the 49ers. Before then, Seattle had gone UNDER in four straight road games (5 road games played this season).

Seattle is 6-5 toward the under this season overall.

All in all, Dallas will drive this game to go over the total regardless of whatever Seattle does offensively. They have scored 30 points in all their home games this season. You can bet the Dallas team total of 29.5 at plus money on DraftKings (+114). My confidence is more in Dallas’ offense than Seattle’s by a sufficient margin.

As for player props...

Since Week 4, the Seahawks have allowed just one QB to pass for 250 yards against them (Sam Howell, Week 10). Lean toward the under on Dak Prescott's total passing yardage prop set at 279.5 passing yards on Prizepicks. Projections have him closer to 271 yards.

Only two QBs that have faced Dallas have thrown for more than 230 passing yards. Sam Howell did it last week. Take the under on Geno Smith and his 228.5 passing yards line on Prizepicks. The line is set at 225 passing yards on most other sportsbooks.

Dallas is also allowing the 3rd-fewest receiving yards and second-fewest receptions per game to WRs. Simply put, if Smith's passing props go under, he's taking a WR with him. And nobody is more negatively correlated with Smith than his two top pass-catchers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

In the five games where Smith has gone under, Metcalf has fewer than 50 receiving yards in the four games he played. Lockett has gone under in four of those 5 same games, finishing with fewer than 40 yards in those 4 games. Locket has also finished with fewer than 4.5 catches in all those same games. Great action for a same-game parlay.

For more action, look at CeeDee Lamb overs. He plays about 60% of his snaps from the slot and ranks second in receiving yards from the slot. That is where Seattle is at its weakest. 5th-most fantasy points per game allowed to slot WRs this season (23). That number is just 11.3 points per game versus perimeter WRs.

A huge game is coming for Lamb after he has been relatively quiet the last two weeks. The reception numbers should be huge. Seattle is 9th in most catches per game to WRs while 16th in yardage.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App