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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Jaguars vs. Saints (Week 7)

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Welcome to our Week 7 Thursday Night Football Preview, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to be your companion as we venture into the world of NFL betting, providing expert insights and recommendations for sides, totals, and even player props that might spice up your single-game parlay. In this edition, our focus is squarely on the thrilling Thursday night clash in Week 7 between the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars, a matchup brimming with excitement.

Whether you’re a seasoned sports bettor or new to the game like me, enjoying the newfound sports betting freedom in my state, this guide is crafted to offer valuable insights and picks for the upcoming game, giving your bankroll a boost heading into the weekend. Prepare to immerse yourself in the NFL season with a sharp betting perspective as we dissect the Saints vs. Jaguars showdown, pinpointing our top bets, favorite picks, and enticing player props. So, get ready for an exhilarating journey into the realm of NFL betting. It’s time to elevate your game!

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

New Orleans Saints (NO) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC) – Saints (-2)

Both these teams are entering this game extremely banged up. The Saints offensive line is a mess with injuries to two starting offensive linemen between Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst. Backup tackle Landon Young is also hurt. 2022 first-round pick tackle Trevor Penning has been dreadful. Ranks 12th in pressures allowed this season.

I fully expect the Jaguars’ defensive line – 8th in pressures, 9th in pressure rate – to get after Derek Carr.

Not like it really matters from a scoring perspective, because the Saints boast the 5th-worst red-zone scoring offense this season. Not surprisingly, the Saints are 6-0 toward the under this season. New Orleans is 12-0 toward the under in their last 12 games, while Carr is 9-3 toward the under in his last 12 games.

Considering the strengths of the Saints’ defense playing at home versus an up-and-down Jaguars offense – who may or may not be without Trevor Lawrence due to a knee injury – I don’t think we need to overthink this one.

New Orleans is 5th in expected points added in pass defense and run defense. They are playing like a top-5 unit.

Bet the Under.

The Saints will struggle to run the football on Jacksonville. Their defense ranks top-5 in the fewest rushing yards per game and 8th in expected points added in run defense. And again, their pass rush is also solid, which should give New Orleans some fits. Carr has been the 17th-most pressured QB this season. But even if pressure doesn’t hit home, watch Carr lay an egg on prime time regardless. From a clean pocket this season, Carr ranks 32nd in adjusted completion percentage and 32nd in yards per attempt.

Player Props:

The Jaguars are getting smoked on the perimeter by WRs. No team has allowed more fantasy points to guys aligned out wide than Jacksonville. However, they have been fourth best versus slot WRs. Although this isn’t super predictive for props as the Saints don’t deploy a strict slot WR.

However, the Jaguars also focus more on zone coverage versus man coverage.

This year, the Saints’ No. 1 WR versus zone coverage has been Rashid Shaheed. He leads the team in receiving yards versus zone coverage on just 11 catches. (21.3 yards per reception). 39 receiving yards per game. Shaheed’s a zone beater so I like his odds of getting over his low receiving yards prop with his big-play ability.

The Saints’ defense plays more man coverage, which has led to more targets for Christian Kirk this season. The Saints have also allowed more fantasy points per game to slot WRs than boundary WRs. Alontae Taylor mans the slot for New Orleans, and he has faced more slot targets and allowed more yards/catches than anybody else inside this season.

If Trevor Lawrence suits up, take the over on Kirk. He’s gone over this number against every team this year not named the Indianapolis Colts with their start slot CB Kenny Moore giving Kirk fits this season.

At running back, I am betting the under on Alvin Kamara. He has been a volume machine but has been super inefficient averaging 3.8 yards per carry with just three rushes of 10-plus yards. There’s a chance that the team lightens Kamara’s load on a shorter week, and Jamaal Williams has a chance to return from IR. The matchup is brutal – Jags allowing 5th fewest rushing yards to RBs this season (57) – so I am not overly concerned Kamara hits the over here. The two RBs that hit the over on Jacksonville this season – Bijan Robinson/Isiah Pacheco – rank inside the top 25 in breakaway run rate.

My Picks:

My Props:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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