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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Jets vs. Browns (Week 17)

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Let's dive into the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jets and the Browns. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Thursday Night Football.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Cleveland Browns (-7.5) vs. New York Jets 

Sides:

  • The favorites have won the first half in 14 of the Jets’ last 15 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Browns have won each of their last five home games. 7-1 overall at home.
  • These teams average 40 points scored.
  • The Browns are 78% ATS as a favorite. 8-1 overall record as a favorite.
  • The Jets are 42% ATS as an underdog.
  • Zach Wilson will not play, as he remains in the concussion protocol. Trevor Siemian will start.

Game Total:

  • Games in Cleveland have averaged 33.6 points per game. 6-2 toward the under.
  • The Browns in their last 8 road games? All overs. Their defense has played worse on the road than at home this season.
  • Each of the Jets’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 8 of the Jets' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams rank first and second respectively in the fewest passing yards allowed per game to opposing QBs. Jets (186), Browns (181).
  • The Jets are more vulnerable versus the run. The one thing the Browns' offense cannot take advantage of.
  • With Joe Flacco at QB, the team has had an +8% pass rate over expectation the last three weeks. No.1 in pass rate on early downs. 30th in rushing EPA on early downs.

Overall:

The Jets suffocating defense and Browns’ elite home defense have me strongly just backing the game total going under, as does Flacco's inevitable regression coming against the toughest defense he has faced this season.

No defense Flacco has faced ranks inside the top-16 in DVOA against the pass. The Jets rank 3rd (Browns are second).

Thursday night island games have been hitting OVERs at an unreal rate. 5 straight OVERs have hit on lone Thursday night games. But I think we see a regression to the mean in Week 17. Going under with 2 elite defenses duking it out.  The honeymoon phase for Flacco might end sooner rather than later. And don’t be fooled by the Jets’ box score last week versus the worst defense in the NFL. The Jets had 14 penalties for 150 yards. Two of their three TD drives started in Washington territory because of turnovers and lasted 3 or fewer plays. In the second half, the Jets punted 5 times with an interception before kicking a FG to win (and not cover) as time expired.

Props:

Jets tight end Tyler Conklin caught 4 passes for 36 yards from 7 targets in Week 16. 83% snap share. However, he cannot be trusted versus the Browns defense that is holding opposing tight ends to the lowest receiving yards per game among all teams this season (31.5). Take the LESS THAN/UNDER on Conklin's 28.5 receiving yards prop in Week 17. The best number is on PrizePicks.

The Jets are also allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs. So even though Amari Cooper has been running HOTTER than the sun, he's primed for a letdown in a tough spot this week. I also LOVE the under on Joe Flacco's passing yards prop and Elijah Moore's receiving yards. Moore is under 31.5 yards in his last 2 games with Flacco at QB. Of the last 9 QBs to face the Jets, 6 have gone UNDER their projected passing yards.

My Picks

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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