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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Patriots versus Steelers (Week 14)

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Welcome to the Week 14 Thursday Night Showdown, POWERED by BettingPros. I'm Andrew Erickson, your expert navigator through the electrifying world of NFL betting. In this space, we explore everything from classic spreads to the most compelling player props, potentially setting you up for a game-changing single-game parlay.

This Thursday night, the spotlight shines on a matchup that, admittedly, might not be the most riveting on paper - the New England Patriots versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite lacking the hype of some of the season’s marquee games, this contest still holds its own unique appeal, especially for the betting community. It's a game where strategy, grit, and perhaps a bit of luck could make all the difference, as both teams aim to boost their standing this season.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newcomer to the world of NFL betting, our guide is meticulously designed to provide you with crucial insights and top picks for this matchup. We’re here to enhance your betting approach as we analyze the nuances of the Patriots vs. Steelers game, highlighting our elite bets, top selections, and must-see player props. Get ready to delve into the NFL season from a betting viewpoint, as we unravel the potential excitement of this matchup and prepare for a Thursday night filled with possibilities!

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) vs. New England Patriots

Don't need to look much further than the total in this game (30) to get an idea of what we should see on Thursday night football. An offensive struggle with two defenses trying to will their way to a team victory.

Nine of the Steelers’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 10-2 under MACHINES overall.

The Steelers are 5-2 toward the under at home this season. The Patriots games have gone UNDER in four of their last 6 games. These teams have combined for a 19-5 record toward the under averaging 34 points scored. The Patriots are 4-1 toward the under on the road this season.

I’ll admit I don’t love the value anymore on the under on the 30-point total, but I do think the pivot is to the first half under at 15.5 points. These teams rank 30th and 31st respectively, in first-half points scored. Again the only way I see this game going over is with turnovers. But if we see both teams deploy run-heavy conservative game plans to open the game, we avoid potential short fields and defensive scores early on.

As for the sides...

The Steelers have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record. They failed to do this last week against the Arizona Cardinals. But in a bizarrely weird game that saw weather play a factor (along with losing their starting QB at the end of the first half), I'll chalk it up more to variance than a sign of things to come.

Pittsburgh often takes care of business against bad teams. Coming off a loss on a short week, I'll back the Steel Curtain against the tanking Patriots that lost their best player on offense (Rhamondre Stevenson) last Sunday. They lost their best offensive player and scored zero points. No coincidence in my opinion.

The Patriots have also failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs. The New England Patriots have the worst overall record and ATS in the AFC (16.7%). 2-10 ATS this season. Woof.

The Steelers' average margin of victory this season is 5.3 points. I'll take them if the line moves to Steelers -5. But if the line is 6 upon reading, I'll likely shy away from the sides.

With the game total likely going under - unless we get short fields created by turnovers - you'll want to mix in some player prop unders as well. Take the under on Steelers RB Najee Harris and his rushing yardage prop.

Harris led the ground attack with 63 yards on 16 carries, averaging 3.9 yards per carry in Week 13. But that was against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Under on the game Thursday night and Harris' bloated rushing yards prop at 59.5 yards, despite his split usage with No. 2 RB Jaylen Warren.

With the value evaporated for the game total - I bet the under at 32.5 early Sunday night - the move might be to just correlate player prop unders. The only two overs Pittsburgh has played in have been at home.

Keep in mind that the only way this game could feasibly go over the points total would be because of short fields and defensive turnovers.

That's more likely than the two offenses that rank 28th and 26th in yards per game, putting together scoring drives. Note that the odds of 2.5+ turnovers in this game are listed at -170 (63% implied probability) on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Patriots DST is just one of 7 teams to not score this season. The Steelers have not allowed a defensive TD all season. +1200 for anytime TD for the Patriots DST.

Take the unders on Mitchell Trubisky's passing yards and George Pickens' receiving props. If Trubisky goes over, it would likely be related to a big Pickens pass play. I'd bet strongly against this.

Because in terms of the targets with Trubisky under center last week...

  • Pat Freiermuth – 3
  • Allen Robinson – 3
  • Diontae Johnson – 3
  • Najee Harris – 3
  • Connor Heyward – 2
  • George Pickens – 1
  • Jaylen Warren – 1
  • Calvin Austin – 1

This is super key to note because the bad splits between Pickens and Trubisky date back to last season and at times this season. With Trubisky last season, Diontae Johnson posted much better numbers. Would expect him to be Steelers WR1 in the matchup versus New England in Week 14.

Johnson's targets with Trubisky games in 2022: 12, 10, 11, 8, 10. Pickens in those same games: 3, 2, 7, 3, 5.

Under on Pickens' 3.5 receptions this Thursday night. Gone under in 4 of 6 last games since Johnson returned to the lineup.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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