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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Expert Picks & Predictions (Commanders vs. Bears)

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Welcome to the Week 5 Thursday Night Preview, proudly presented by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to be your guide through the NFL's thrilling world of wagers, offering expert insights and recommendations on everything from sides to totals, and sometimes even player props that could lead to a game-changing single-game parlay. In this edition, we're laser-focused on the Week 5 Thursday night showdown between the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears (oh my), a taste of what's to come in our official NFL Betting Primer every Friday.

Whether you're a seasoned betting pro or just starting to explore the exciting realm of NFL wagering - like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting - this one-game primer is tailored to provide valuable insights and picks for the upcoming matchup and boost those bankrolls into the weekend. Get ready to dive headfirst into the NFL season with a keen betting perspective as we dissect the WAS vs. CHI matchup, pinpointing our favorite bets, top picks, and enticing player props. So, fasten your seatbelts for a thrilling journey into the world of NFL betting - it's time to up your game!

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears (WAS -6)

Last week, I dubbed the Commanders as a team that can beat bad teams; but on that crumbles in the presence of the elite. But a near-upset road victory versus the Philadelphia Eagles sure got me to notice that I was potentially undervaluing the football team in the nation's capital - or just recognizing the Eagles as overrated at 4-0. More on that in the full betting primer to come on Friday.

Back to D.C.

The Commanders gave Philly all they could handle in the OT loss. Howell played much better and was successful from a clean pocket. The offensive line did enough for Washington's offense to take advantage of an Eagles defense that ranks 6th in passing yards allowed per game. I expect more of the same versus an atrocious Bears defense that ranks third to last in pressure rate generated (14%). The only defenses that are worse are the Raiders/Broncos. Keep in mind that the Commanders scored 35 points on the Broncos back in Week 2.

The Howell-led Commanders have scored at least 20 points in all their games averaging 28 points per game.

The Commanders’ offense should also be able to establish a ground game to help take pressure off their quarterback, as the Bears rank 31st in expected points added to defense and yards per attempt (8.4). When the Commanders failed to cover the spread this season (Weeks 1+3) they combined for 8 turnovers on offense. In the games they covered, 0 turnovers on offense. Washington would be 3-1 vs the spread had it not been for a fumble six in Week 1.

The Bears rank 30th in takeaways per game (0.5) and 31st in passes defended through four games.

As for Chicago taking on the Commanders' defense, it's a big difference from facing Denver. An interesting trend I found was that after a team beats up on the Broncos, they disappointed greatly the following week.

An average of 11 points was scored and a clean sweep of team total unders for the team's coming off big Ws and offensive performances versus the Broncos.

Now Washington's defense is not the Bills. But the Commanders’ defense held their own versus the Buffalo Bills high-powered offense through three quarters before things got blown up due to turnovers in the 4th quarter. Josh Allen averaged 6.8 yards per attempt.

And on the year, Washington ranks 6th best in red-zone defense and 17th on third downs.

That's despite facing three top-tier QBs in the last three weeks.

The Bears’ offense has been strong in the red zone (8th) - when they get there - and 18th on third downs.

There's overwhelming evidence that Howell and an efficient ground game can easily take care of business against the Bears’ defense. And Chicago - for a number of reasons - won't likely replicate their offensive success for another straight week playing on the road on Thursday night.

When these two teams met last year on Thursday night, it was a barn burner with a 12-7 finish in favor of the Commanders on the road.

From a totals perspective, I am likely leaning toward the under, but prefer just taking the Bears' team total under at 18.5 (+100) which you can get as plus money odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Commanders allowed 19 points per game at home last season.

Player Props

Love the over on Brian Robinson's 63.5 rushing yards prop. Chicago has allowed  RB to surpass this number for three straight weeks and Robinson EATs a home. Gone over this number in five of his last seven home games, while exceeding his closing rushing prop in all but one. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees, forecasting B-Rob for nearly 69 yards on Thursday night.

As for unders, I am looking at Bears tight end Cole Kmet. The Commanders have allowed no tight end to surpass 25 receiving yards against them this season. 21 receiving yards per game. In 2022, they allowed just 36.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends and just 3.8 receptions.

Kmet has finished under 3.5 receptions in eight of his last 10 road games while finishing under 31.5 receiving yards in six of 10 road games.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have been devasted by WRs. 6th in receiving yards allowed (200.5) and 14th in receptions allowed per game (13). And when Darnell Mooney has played a 75-plus percent snap share this season, he has averaged four catches for 51 yards. I think with the weakness of the Washington defense being its CBs, I would expect Mooney to finish with at least three grabs. Mooney has the lowest aDOT on the Bears among WRs (9.8) opening opportunities for short underneath completions. 7 of his 8 catches have come from the slot this season, where Washington has been lit up, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. Benjamin St-Juste is the primary slot cornerback, and he has allowed 80% catch rate in coverage this season.

My Picks:

  • Commanders -6 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Bears under 18.5 points (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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