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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Expert Picks & Predictions (Lions vs. Packers)

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Welcome to the Week 4 Thursday Night Preview, proudly presented by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to be your guide through the NFL’s thrilling world of wagers, offering expert insights and recommendations on everything from sides to totals, and sometimes even player props that could lead to a game-changing single-game parlay. In this edition, we’re laser-focused on the Week 4 Thursday night showdown between the Lions and Packers, a taste of what’s to come in our official NFL Betting Primer every Friday.

Whether you’re a seasoned betting pro or just starting to explore the exciting realm of NFL wagering - like myself, now that my state has embraced sports betting - this one-game primer is tailored to provide valuable insights and picks for the upcoming matchup and boost those bankrolls into the weekend. Get ready to dive headfirst into the NFL season with a keen betting perspective as we dissect the DET vs. GB matchup, pinpointing our favorite bets, top picks, and enticing player props. So, fasten your seatbelts for a thrilling journey into the world of NFL betting - it’s time to up your game!

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5)

When I first looked at the betting line, I thought the Green Bay Packers were 2.5-point favorites at home. Made sense to me, given they are playing at home. But to my surprise - and delight - the Detroit Lions are actually road favorites. I love it from the Packers' betting perspective.

They are 2-0-1 versus the closing spread and 2-1 straight up this season, playing in games that closed at 3-point spreads or less. The betting market has yet to fully buy into the Jordan Love experience three weeks in, slightly hedging their bets with tight spreads. Now the sportsbooks have been spot on with the tight spreads the last two weeks, with GB playing in two games decided by one point.

And that's why I love backing the Pack at home at +2.5. The Lions went 4-4 straight up on the road in 2022 and won one game by more than one score.

One win came back in Week 18, where they upset the Packers playing for a playoff berth. And I think that's where the faith is coming from the Lions' backers. They already have shown they can beat the Packers on the road with Jared Goff at the helm.

And the Packers offense is playing better than it did last year. Averaging five more points per game than last season. The red zone offense ranks second best (78%). 5th in third down conversion rate (47%). GB was average or below average in these categories last season.

I think Jordan Love - who the team is fully bought into as their franchise QB and leader - can put up points versus the Lions’ defense, even if it’s not a massive yardage total game. He has displayed an efficient style of play that leads to points without the gargantuan yardage totals. Sixth in total passing EPA through three games without the team's best WR, Christian Watson, who plans to play on Thursday. Love ranks fourth in the NFL in passing air yards (1,013) but just second-to-last in conversion rate of those air yards.

The Packers averaged 31 points through the first two road games and left points on the boards in the red zone last week, where narrowly escaped with a victory versus the Saints. They were dead in the water and still managed to keep it close to walk away with the win. I think they do the same here on a short week at home. Even if they don't win, I envision another nail-biter that goes down to the wire.

As for the total, my favorite bet is EASILY the under here at 45.5. It's too bad it's already been bet down since opening at 46.5. But in both matchups with these teams last season, both games flew under this total with point totals of 24 and 36. The Lions are traditionally a team that has scored fewer points on the road than at home, and I expect Goff to be under pressure from the Packers' defensive line. They rank 7th in total pressures and 11th in pressure rate. The Lions are 2-1 toward the under this season. Both defenses are allowing just 21 points per game this season. Both also rank inside the top 12 in the fewest yards per play.

Player Props

Two words. Luke Musgrave. Start him in your fantasy football lineups and bet his overs on the sportsbooks. The Lions have allowed the MOST receiving yards this season to opposing tight ends (88 per game). And Musgrave owns an ELITE role in his offense. 87% snap share over the last two weeks. Top-10 in routes run this season. He's gone over 38.5 receiving yards in two of his three starts this year.

And although I won’t make this an official play, I feel obligated to give my anytime TD and/or first TD bet (+1700 FanDuel) for this matchup. I’ve been on a heater the last two weeks, with Jake Ferguson and Donald Parham Jr. scoring their 1st TDs in their games the last two weeks. So we follow the process by backing Musgrave here to score on Thursday night. Ranks first in offensive snaps inside the 5, 10, and 20-yard line among the Packers’ skill players

Although I like the Musgrave, I will be taking the under on Jordan Love's completions prop set at 20.5. He barely got over this number last week when he attempted 44 passes. He has averaged just 17 completions per game this season, as the team is limiting how much Love is throwing to keep him efficient. The Packers have the second-lowest expected pass rate this season, 55%, and fifth-lowest pass rate overall.

My Picks:

My Props:

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