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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Rams vs. Saints (Week 16)

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Let’s dive into the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Rams and the Saints. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The Rams are 4-0 ATS over their last four games. The Saints have COVERED four games...all season.

The Rams are 71% ATS as a favorite. 6-1 as a favorite. New Orleans is 1-1 as an underdog, their one cover coming against the 3-11 Patriots as 1.5-point road underdogs. They lost to the Detroit Lions by 5 points as 4.5 dogs.

The Rams are one of the best teams the Saints have faced this season. The Saints’ schedule has been a joke, hence it's just the third time they have been underdogs. As a result, the Saints have dramatically underwhelmed ATS, by not meeting expectations against inferior teams. The Saints have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games against NFC opponents. Against the Giants, they broke their 0-7 streak of covering games after a win.

The Saints continue to struggle immensely in the red zone (21st) offensively, but they have improved dramatically in the last 3 weeks (90%). But again, Giants/Panthers/Lions were their opponents - all defenses in the bottom 24 in the red zone this season.

LA's defense ranks 12th in the red zone.

The Saints’ defense slowed down the Giants at home last week, but they still rank as the 6th worst run defense in explosive runs allowed at 12%. Very problematic against Rams RB1 Kyren Williams, who has 21-plus carries in three straight games.

The Rams have gone just 7-5-2 ATS this season. Their 7 covers? Seattle twice, Arizona twice, Cleveland, Ravens and Commanders. But as alluded to earlier, they have been heating up.

Still, their defense isn't great. Only 4x they have allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. Only Seattle, Arizona and Washington failed to crack 300 yards.

Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season. The Rams defense also ranks 30th in takeaways on defense this season.

Los Angeles also gives up a fair share of explosive passing plays as do the New Orleans Saints...

45.2 points are scored on average at SoFi Stadium. These teams average close to 43.5 points per game. The total of the game rests at an extremely sharp, 44.5 point total. The total is likely a stay-away unless I tease it up to a larger number in a parlay.

But when in doubt, take the under. The Rams are 6-3 toward the under their last 9 games. Sixteen of the Saints' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Though in all honesty, backing the Rams -3.5 is the best play here. The Saints have been overrated all year, and have yet to play a legitimate team the last two weeks that can expose them. The Rams will be that team.

As for player props.

Ten of the 11 most comparable WRs to Chris Olave have gone OVER their receptions prop when they faced the Rams’ defense. LA is allowing the 7th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season, but the 5th-fewest to slot WRs.  When Saints WR props get dropped look for overs on Olave, and more specifically, big-play threat Rashid Shaheed.

Check out the BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Analyzer.

I also want to outline the Alvin Kamara props, because it's a fascinating case of player usage versus matchup. The matchup is bad across all facets.

The Rams’ defense ranks 13th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game and No. 1 in fewest receiving yards per game to RBs. 2 RBs they have faced have gone over 30 receiving yards. I can't back myself to take the rushing yards over for fear of game script in case the Saints trail. Kamara has also lost out on work to Jamaal Williams in recent weeks. In a short week, the total attempts could be more split. If you can find any unders at 53.5, that'd be my primary lean. But it needs to be that number...considering Kamara has gone over 49.5 rushing in 9 of 11 this season. But 53.5 rushing yards? He’s hitting just 50% in his last 6 games.

Prefer the receiving yards, if/when the Saints are trailing. He has also gone over this number in 9/11 games at 29.5 receiving yards. One time he didn't was versus Carolina. They are the No. 1 DVOA versus RBs in the receiving game. The Rams rank 14th. It's a simple bet on Kamara's locked-and-loaded role as a receiver in the Saints offense.

As outlined in this week's fantasy forecast, Rashid Shaheed could see opportunities if Olave is limited on Thursday night versus a defense that allows a lot of production to perimeter WRs. They also play a ton of zone coverage and boast one of the worst PFF grade defending while in zone coverage this season. Shaheed is the Saints’ primary zone beater and played 88% of his snaps out-wide in Week 15.

Last week against the league's No. 32nd-ranked Washington pass defense, Sean McVay dialed up an offense that finished -10% in pass rate over expectation. They threw the ball on early downs on just 38% of the plays. This team's identity is to run the ball and they will continue to do so against the Saints.

Therefore take the under on Matthew Stafford's pass attempts set at 35.5. He has 36-plus attempts in just 2 of his last 6 games.

My Picks

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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