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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Ravens vs. Bengals (Week 11)

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Welcome to the Week 10 Thursday Night Showdown, brought to you by BettingPros. I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to navigate you through the electrifying world of NFL wagers, delivering expert insights and recommendations that span from classic spreads to tantalizing player props, all of which can culminate in a game-altering single-game parlay.

In this edition, we’re shifting our focus to a high-stakes AFC North showdown between two resilient teams, the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. Both squads are riding waves of anticipation and redemption following heart-pounding losses in the previous week.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newcomer to the captivating universe of NFL betting, this comprehensive guide is tailor-made to offer valuable insights and selections for this upcoming clash. We’re here to help you enhance your bankroll as we dissect the BAL vs. CIN matchup, unveiling our top bets, favored picks, and enticing player props. Get ready to immerse yourself in the NFL season from a wagering perspective, as we break down this thrilling showdown and set the stage for an action-packed Thursday night!

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore has covered their last six of 8 games against a team with a winning record. As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. Versus bad teams – like what we saw 2 weeks ago versus the Cardinals – they tend to play with less urgency and composure.

And they tend to bounce back after a loss – especially in games they should have won. The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last six games following a loss. Also 9 wins as a favorite following a loss. That includes twice this season after the Ravens blew games straight up and ATS against the Colts/Steelers.

The Bengals are 1-1 as underdogs this season despite facing the league’s second-most difficult schedule. Winners of four straight since the team has gotten a healthy Joe Burrow back in the starting lineup before falling to the Houston Texans in Week 10. Burrow overall is 15-5 against the spread following a loss.

Cincy ranks 26th defending on third downs, while the Ravens offense ranks 6th best in terms of third-down conversion rate.

The Bengals are also 16th overall in DVOA despite the challenging schedule. Horrible against the run at 29th overall in DVOA. The Texans couldn’t run the ball at any point during the year until they faced the Bengals. The Ravens are coming off a season-low 106 rushing yards against the Browns.

The Ravens are also 6-4 toward the under. 10 of 12 last Ravens’ games have gone UNDER the projected total. Ten of the last 12 Ravens’ home games have gone under the total.

But it’s been mostly against bad QBs. Outside the dominant performance versus Jared Goff/Geno Smith at home, the Ravens have faced two rookie QBs making their first starts, an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs.

Simply put, when they don’t fear an opposing QB, the Ravens tend to go under the game total. Last week the total went over because they faced a “good” version of Deshaun Watson. And this week, they will face a healthy Joe Burrow, unlike what we saw back in Week 2. That September game Baltimore won outright 27-24 on the road as 3-point underdogs.

It also went over the 46 projected total. The current line rests at 46. Average points scored in Ravens games this season: 43 total points

The Bengals have been victims of major explosive plays allowing the most explosive plays overall and per game on defense this season.

There are also key injuries on both sides

Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey is listed as a day-to-day. Linebacker Trenton Simpson is likely to miss with a concussion. Humphrey would be a HUGE loss to the defense, given he is the only real CB that can stick with Ja’Marr Chase (fully removed from the injury report after being on it last week with a back injury).

The Bengals defense might be in worse shape. Both starting edge rushers are in danger of missing the game between Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson. Hendrickson is fourth in the NFL in pressures this season. Hubbard is second on the Bengals in pressures generated.

Considering this defense could only apply pressure on 18% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks in Week 2…their defense is in a considerable amount of trouble. From a clean pocket, Jackson completed 76% of his passes for 222 yards (7.7 yards per attempt) with 2 TD scores. He averaged over 9 air yards per pass attempt.

The Ravens offense punted twice versus the Bengals. They scored on five different drives, four of which were over 10 plays long. Sustained drives AND big plays are a recipe for success in Baltimore come Thursday night.

Offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley also has a chance to miss this game, but he also did not play in the Week 2 matchup earlier this season. Not overly concerned about the Ravens offense without him.

All signs point to backing the Ravens in this spot, but with Burrow on the other side in a 3.5-point spread – it hardly feels safe. I totally can see a Ravens’ small win, but not by enough to cover. After all, Burrow is probably the best QB they have faced all season – aside from road Goff. And when that happens, the game usually goes over. Hence I lean on my bet on the totals with the utmost confidence in the Ravens offense putting on a show here. I like the over on their team total at 24.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook). Gone over in 70% of their game this season. Every game the Bengals have lost this season they have allowed at least 24 points.

I like the Ravens’ team total over in addition to the game total over at 46, despite prime time unders firing on all cylinders. However, Thursdays have been more high-scoring than the Sun/Mon counterparts. 4-6 toward the under on TNF this season.

For player props, it’s all about Zay Flowers overs. 50.5 receiving yards on FanDuel is too low. Gone over in 60% of his games with at least 48-plus yards in all but 2 games this season. Flowers was the primary target in the receiving corps last week, catching 5 of his 6 targets (26% Target share, 40% air yard share) for 73 yards. Lamar narrowly missed him on a deep throw that could have been the ultimate difference in the game.

The Bengals have allowed the most explosive plays on defense (highest average depth of target faced) this season including 50-plus receiving yards to 7 different opposing WRs over the last four games.

Also love the over on Mark Andrews’ 4.5 receptions prop at plus money. The Bengals are one of the worst defenses versus tight ends, allowing 6.1 catches and 67 receiving yards per game to the position. Andrews has one game this season with fewer than 4 receptions. And it happened last week.

Last prop here. Again. Another over for a Ravens pass-catcher. Rashod Bateman over 24.5 receiving yards. He’s gone over this number in four straight games. Odell Beckham Jr. is banged up, which should open up opportunities for Bateman to be the clear-cut No. 2 guy. Last week, Bateman played ahead of OBJ (74% snap share to 33% snap share) while running a route on 77% of the dropbacks. Both were easily season-highs.  Beckham scored the long TD but only ran 12 routes. If we are to see the Ravens take that next leap, it might be due to Bateman. This is a matchup where Bateman’s big-play upside can be on full display.

As for any time TDs/first TDs, the Ravens are the team to back in this spot to strike first. They have scored 9 first TDs this season, by far the most in the NFL. 7 have been rushing—just one passing TD. Gus Edwards has the shortest odds (+650) for the first TD, as he should have. But with Andrews (+950) leading the team in red-zone targets, wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him score first given how bad the Bengals are at defending tight ends. Longshot odds I’d bet on Bateman (+2600) hoping he catches a deep one for 6 early on. Likely settle with him at already “longer” odds for just an anytime TD at +550. Bateman is the No. 2 EV bet in the BettingPros NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Tool.

And as I write this piece, I can’t help but want to mix in some Keaton Mitchell TD props. Again, the Bengals give up a TON of explosive plays and I’d argue Mitchell is the more explosive playmaker. +1300 1st TD and +240 for anytime TD.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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