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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Titans vs. Steelers (Week 9)

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Welcome to the Week 9 Thursday Night Preview, proudly presented by BettingPros. I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to be your guide through the NFL's thrilling world of wagers, offering expert insights and recommendations on everything from sides to totals, and sometimes even player props that could lead to a game-changing single-game parlay. In this edition, we're focusing on the Week 9 Thursday night showdown between the Tennessee Titans and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Whether you're a seasoned betting pro or just starting to explore the exciting realm of NFL wagering, this one-game primer is tailored to provide valuable insights and picks for the upcoming matchup and boost those bankrolls into the weekend. Get ready to dive headfirst into the NFL season with a betting perspective as we dissect the TEN vs. PIT matchup, pinpointing our favorite bets, top picks, and enticing player props.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

We backed the Titans last week as home underdogs. And they won outright. But as I've pointed out with each Titans' write-up this season, this team plays differently at home compared to on the road. The Titans have lost each of their last six road games (7 in road or neutral sites). It's a team that tends to underperform on the road because bad offensive lines don't travel. And against a fierce Steelers defensive front, Tennessee is going to run into issues in Will Levis' first start away from Nashville.

Not to mention, the Levis 4 TD performance isn't likely to repeat itself. Let's review.

Three came on deep balls, which are not easily replicated. The other came on a red-zone possession that the Titans were gifted by a Falcons turnover.

Levis orchestrated an offense that only converted 5 third downs during the entire game. They punted 8 times. Only the Jets/Giants punted more in Week 8. That game was the ultimate punt fest, and the Titans under Levis almost gave them a run for their money.

As for the Steelers, here are the trends. The Steelers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record. Also on a five-game win streak in terms of covering the spread (and winning) following an outright loss.

And each of the Steelers’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line. 6-1 under MACHINES. 1-3 under at home this season.

We know that the Steelers aren't a great 4-3 team. They have willed their way to wins with defense and turnovers. They've created turnovers at just the right time to beat teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Ravens despite being outgained in yardage in Every. Single. Game. They have played this season.

It caught up to them last week versus Jacksonville even though the defense forced three turnovers.

But as home favorites versus a rookie QB making his first road start, should we be buying the Steelers? I think so. As much as I'd like to knock the Steelers down for potentially starting Mitchell Trubisky, he's not much worse than Kenny Pickett. And as I hit off the top, the Steelers aren't winning games because of their offense in any capacity.

All in all, I'd take the Steelers to win out a close field-goal game, but I'd much rather just bet on the under. I try to avoid betting on any team led by Trubisky who is 3-4 ATS in games he started/played last year for the Steelers. 2-2 ATS in completed starts.

And for what it's worth...Pickett is saying he will play on Thursday night. I'll believe it when I see it, but it’s another reason to back the home team in this spot.

Prime Time unders have been strong this season so we have that going already in our favor. The Steel Curtain is a printing press of unders as is Tennessee who is 5-2 toward the under this year. A perfect 4-0 toward the under this season. I bet this early at 37.5 but still am fine with the line at 36.5.

As for props, nothing stands out at the time of this writing. Would heavily lean toward overs on Diontae Johnson receptions props once they get released. He has a 25% target share through three games averaging 5-plus catches per game. Johnson's targets with Trubisky games in 2022: 12, 10, 11, 8, 10. Note that DJ had 11 targets in the first half alone last week – going 6 for 62 – in his second game back from injury. Pickett was targeting him HEAVILY before he exited with an injury.

I would also hammer the under on Najee Harris' 46.5 rushing yards prop. Averaged 45 yards per game this season. Under has hit for an opposing RB versus the Titans in five of six games.

As for the Anytime/1st TD bets, I am eyeing the Steelers offense. Diontae Johnson is overdue for positive TD regression dating back to last season, so he’s going to score sooner rather than later. He also drew two red-zone targets last week. The Steelers have one 1st TD score this season on offense. The Titans also only have 1 TD score this season on offense. Both defenses have allowed 4 passing TDs each. Titans 2 RBs, 3 WRs. Steelers 1 RB, 4 WRs. The Titans’ defense is also likely to regress allowing passing TDs given they rank 12th in total passing yards allowed but 30th in passing TDs per game. Also zero passing TDs to tight ends thus far, but that will eventually regress based on the decent yardage allowed to the position (12th-fewest).

The longshot play is targeting the Steelers’ tight ends to catch a TD. Connor Heyward continues to see a full-time role in the absence of Pat Freiermuth. Ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks in Week 8. Two red-zone targets over the last two weeks. +1300 first TD.

The degenerate play is Rod Williams. He is a third-string tight end and is running more routes than Darnell Washington. Involved in the red-zone packages and saw 2 targets last week. +1200 Anytime TD. He’s a freak athlete with 4.60 40-yard wheels.

My Picks:

  • Under 37 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Steelers -2.5 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Diontae Johnson Anytime TD (+195), 1st TD (+675)
  • Diontae Johnson over 4.5 receptions (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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