Thursday Night Football First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Picks (Dolphins vs. Bengals)
Let’s take a look at a few of our favorite first touchdown scorer player prop bet picks for Thursday Night Football: Dolphins vs. Bengals.
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Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Picks & Predictions (Dolphins vs. Bengals)
Jaylen Waddle First TD (+1000 DK)
Before the season, experts were wondering which one of Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill would emerge as the new alpha receiver in Miami. The answer has turned out to be both.
While Hill is the hot new name in Miami, Waddle has built on an excellent 2021 rookie season. In three games, he’s posted 19 catches on 30 targets for 342 yards and 3 TDs. The target, yard, and TD totals are good for 1st on the Dolphins. While Waddle has pop as a deep threat, two of his three TDs have come in the red zone. He’s also the Dolphins’ leader in red zone targets (4).
The Dolphins have thrown just three deep passes in the first quarter, compared to 12 short passes. Waddle does his best work on short passes – of his 30 targets this season, 25 have come on passes with fewer than 15 air yards. I expect the Dolphins to come out playing a methodical offense with conservative pass plays, and I expect Waddle to be the beneficiary of this game plan.
Waddle’s +1000 odds give him the second shortest odds of any Dolphins player to score the game’s first TD behind Tyreek Hill. Given Waddle’s usage and the Dolphins’ first-quarter game plan, I’d contend he should have shorter odds than Hill.
Ja’Marr Chase First TD (+650 DK)
Early in 2022, Ja’Marr Chase has picked up where he left off as Joe Burrow’s favorite target. Chase owns a 27% target share in a Bengals offense that has been in the top five in the NFL regarding pass attempts. He should have a nice matchup against a Miami team that has allowed the second most pass yards in the NFL this season, especially with star CB Xavien Howard limited with an injury.
The Bengals have played aggressively in the first quarter this season, attempting 32 pass plays compared to only 15 runs. Ja’Marr Chase leads the Bengals in first-quarter targets, with a blend of short and deep targets showing that Burrow looks to get him involved early all over the field.
While Chase is a threat no matter where the Bengals have the ball, he’s been a serious red zone threat this year. Chase owns a massive 33% target share of the Bengals’ 24 red zone attempts. In fact, Chase has only two fewer targets + rushes in the red zone than Bengals star RB Joe Mixon.
I expect the Bengals to come out aggressive early and make a statement at home against a team that some would argue is better on paper. With an injured Xavien Howard and questionable pass defense, Chase should be able to convert a high percentage of the targets he sees on Thursday night. At +650, I love this price for him to get in the end zone.
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