Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Commanders vs. Bears)
Let’s take a look at our favorite player prop bet picks for Thursday Night Football: Commanders vs. Bears.
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Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Commanders vs. Bears)
Brian Robinson 60+ Rush Yards (-110)
After rookie Brian Robinson was shot in the leg less than two weeks before the season started, his season was in doubt. Somehow, Robinson has managed to make a full recovery in a very short amount of time. Robinson was the feature back last week against Tennessee, carrying the ball 9 times for 22 yards. The yardage total was a bit disappointing, but it came against a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in rush yards allowed per game this season.
With Ron Rivera capitalizing on every opportunity he can to throw his own players under the bus, he made it clear this week that Antonio Gibson will likely see work on punt returns. All signs point to Robinson being the workhorse on Thursday night against a Bears defense that ranks bottom 5 in the NFL in rush yards per game allowed to RBs. If the game flow can be a bit friendlier to the Commanders (I expect it to be closer than last week's game due to the low game total) Robinson should be in line for at least 12-15 carries against a bad rush defense.
This is the most ambitious leg of the parlay, but I still like the value here as Robinson continues to work his way back and establish himself in his rookie year.
Equanimeous St. Brown O18.5 Receiving Yds (-110)
While his brother, Amon-Ra St. Brown, has been one of the breakout stars of the season so far, Equanimeous St. Brown has made the most of his opportunities. The Bears' St. Brown has averaged 18.3 yards per catch on 6 catches this season, in an offense that has struggled to throw the ball at times. St. Brown is second among Bears WRs with 13 targets this season, good for a 27.6% target share among throws going to WRs.
I expect the Bears to open up their passing game a bit more this week against the Commanders’ bad pass defense after Fields' nice game last week. The next few months will be make-or-break for Fields in Chicago, and I expect them to take every opportunity to see what he can do now that he's shown flashes.
Given St. Brown's high yard-per-catch mark, and the fact that I expect Fields to throw the ball more than he normally does this game, I think St. Brown should see enough targets to eclipse this low yardage total. This is especially true against a Commanders defense that allows the third-most yards per catch to WRs of any defense in the NFL. St. Brown can absolutely get 19 or more yards on one catch, and if he can string together multiple catches this should cash easily.
After years of being an injury liability, Curtis Samuel is finally healthy and making a huge impact for Washington this season. Samuel has hauled in 6.4 catches on 9.0 targets per game. Samuel has scored two TDs this season, both on red zone targets. Samuel's 21.4% target share is the highest on the team by a wide margin.
Washington throws the ball 42.0 times per game, third most in the NFL. I expect them to go to the air often once again Thursday as they try to get Carson Wentz going. The Bears defense is pretty good overall, but they're above the league average in yards per catch allowed (12.8).
I expect Samuel to lead Washington in targets, and expect him to get red zone looks. Given that he's got +250 odds to score despite being the target leader on one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league, this is excellent value.
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