Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (49ers vs. Seahawks)
In Week 15 of our Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions, today we get to preview the 9-4 San Francisco 49ers vs. the 7-6 Seattle Seahawks. This game will be the second time these two teams face off this season.
Earlier this year, the 49ers had their way with the Seahawks beating them 27-7. Now with their playoff hopes on the line, Seattle is on the outside looking in, currently sitting at the eighth spot in the NFC playoff picture. As for the 49ers, they are now down to their third-string quarterback after losing Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13. The good news for the 49ers is it hasn’t affected the team much, as they won back-to-back games with Brock Purdy at the helm.
Finally, this game will be played in Seattle. The weather forecast will be cold at 35 degrees, but they are calling for clear skies with little to no wind, so the game shouldn’t be impacted.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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This week we will highlight the Same Game Parlay function on draft kings. If you want to learn more about the same game parlay, click here. This function allows you to get alternative player props that are more conservative. Even though these more conservative individual props have worse odds, once you parlay them, you can find ways to get to an overall bet that will give you plus odds on the week. In this article, we will highlight the parlay and then break down each individual bet.
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- Kenneth Walker Rushing Yards Under 74.5
- Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Over 64.5
- Noah Fant receiving yards Under 49.5
- Single Game Parlay Odds: +105
Player: Kenneth Walker
Player Prop: Rushing Yards 74.5
Recommendation: Bet the Under
Back in Week 2 vs. the San Francisco 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks, like most teams, struggled to run the ball. The Seattle running backs combined for 34 rushing yards on 12 attempts in that game. Heading into Week 15, the outlook for Kenneth Walker looks just as bleak as the 49ers’ front seven has only gotten healthier throughout the season. Further complicating things is the injury to Walker’s ankle. Walker missed last week after dealing with the injury, and now on a short week, will be playing at less than 100 percent. That doesn’t bode well for his chances of eclipsing the 65-yard rushing mark in Week 15. This season the 49ers have yet to allow any running back to get over 60 yards in a game. This matchup, along with Walker playing at less than 100 percent, makes betting the under on his rushing yards a solid play in Week 15.
Player: Christian McCaffrey
Player Prop: Rushing Yards 64.5
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Since the injury to Elijah Mitchell back in Week 12, the 49ers have fully leaned into Christian McCaffrey as their lead back. Before his injury, McCaffery averaged just 11.5 carries for 48 yards while playing 60% of the snaps. After the injury to Mitchell, those numbers jump to 15.5 carries for 92 yards while playing 76% of the snaps. These numbers without Mitchell came against two strong run defenses in Tampa Bay and Miami. Now, in Week 15, McCaffrey will get one of the best matchups he will face all year long. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth most rushing yards to running backs this season. This includes allowing eight running backs to go over 65 yards in a game so far in 2022. Now with Deebo Samuel out along with Mitchell, look for McCaffrey to get the lion’s share of the running back touches. This increase in usage and strong matchups should allow McCaffrey to eclipse the 65-yard rushing mark in Week 15.
Player: Noah Fant
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 49.5
Recommendation: Bet the Under
One of the pieces that came over in the Russell Wilson trade was a tight end, Noah Fant. Fant, in his first season with Seattle, has been solid, catching 37 passes for 382 yards while finding the end zone twice through 13 games. Even though most of those numbers put Fant as the third option on the team, he is a distant third option behind top wide receivers Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. A lot of this has to do with the Seahawks using a tight end-by-committee approach this season. Fellow tight ends Will Dissly (36 targets) and Colby Parkinson (17 targets) have eaten into Fant’s usage, capping him at just 3.6 targets per game. This usage has only allowed Fant to get over 50 yards receiving in just one game this year.
This week it will be tough for Fant to eclipse that 50 yards receiving mark as the Seahawks take on the 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the fourth fewest receiving yards to tight ends so far in 2022. This includes only allowing two tight ends to eclipse that 50 yards-receiving yards mark in a game. Overall, with Fant struggling in their first matchup of the year (2-11) and the 49ers defense only getting healthier, it makes sense to bet his receiving yards under in Week 15.
Season Long Betting Tracker
Individual bets: 26-20 (57%)
Same Game Parlays 2-6
Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday
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