Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Colts vs. Broncos)
In Week five of our Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions we get to preview the 1-2-1 Indianapolis Colts vs. 2-2 Denver Broncos. Each team has seen its fair share of ups and down on offense this season, and to make things more complex they head into this game without their top running backs. The Colts will look for a new identity as backups Nyheim Hines and Phillip Lindsay try to fill the void left by star running back Jonathan Taylor. Meanwhile, the Broncos will start their first game without stand-out running back Javonte Williams as he is now lost for the season after a torn ACL. Newly signed veteran Latavius Murray will join Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone as the Broncos look for the right combination to find success on the ground. The good news for both teams is that the forecast in Denver for Thursday’s game is 63% with winds under 10 MPH so weather won’t be a factor.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Colts vs. Broncos)
- Player: Courtland Sutton
- Player Prop: 4.5 Receptions (-115)
- Recommendation: Bet the Over
The top player prop for tonight’s game is Courtland Sutton’s reception prop at 4.5. Sutton has been solid so far this season hitting the five-reception mark three straight weeks after a four-reception performance in Week 1. This production is despite the fact he has faced very tough matchups this season for outside WRs. In three of his first four games Sutton has had a bottom 10 matchup in Seahawks (29th), 49ers (25th), and Raiders (31st) in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs.
The bad news heading into Week five is Sutton will get another tough matchup vs. the Indianapolis Colts. In 2022 the Colts allow the ninth fewest points to outside WRs. However, there are a few things that make this matchup appealing. First, the Colts allow 66% of their fantasy points on the outside. That percentage is in the top half of the league at 13th. The three previous matchups mentioned above (49ers, Seahawks, and Raiders) were all bottom 13 in fantasy points allowed on the outside. Next, number one WRs have had success vs. the Colts as Brandin Cooks (7-82), Christian Kirk (6-78-2), and Juju Smith Schuster (5-89) all had very productive days. As a bonus, if you do the same game parlay on Draft Kings with a Colts’ player prop you can add in the Sutton receiving yards over at 64.5 to boost our odds this Thursday night.
- Player: Matt Ryan
- Player Prop: Passing Yards 228.5 (-115)
- Recommendation: Bet the Under
Matt Ryan has had a bit of an up-and-down start to his Colts career which is reflected in Indianapolis’ 1-2-1 record. This season Ryan has thrown for over 229 yards in just two of four games, and that is with a soft schedule. The Colts have faced the Texans (15th), Jaguars (17th), Chiefs (5th), and Titans (3rd) in the NFL in passing yards allowed. In those two games where he did throw over the 229 passing yards, it came against the Texans and Titans who are both in the top half of the NFL in passing yards allowed.
This week Ryan will face his toughest test yet as the Colts take on the Denver Broncos. The Broncos this season have yet to allow a passer to throw over 212 yards in a game. This includes below-average passing yards performances from Geno Smith (195), Davis Mills (177), Jimmy Garoppolo (211), and Derek Carr (188). Due to the loss of Jonathan Taylor, the Colts could lean on the pass more. Therefore utilizing the same game parlay function on Draft Kings to look at alternative passing yards props of 244.5 and 269.5 to pair with a Courtland Sutton reception prop of 4+ might not be a terrible idea. Either way, the Ryan passing yards under is a solid bet.
- Player: Melvin Gordon
- Player Prop: Rushing Yards 58.5 (-115)
- Recommendation: Bet the Under
Melvin Gordon will get his first crack at being the new RB1 for the Denver Broncos post-Javonte Williams. However, his starting role will be on thin ice after fumbling the football five times in the first four weeks losing two of them. These issues led to him being benched in Week four in favor of Mike Boone. Further clouding the backfield is the recent signing of Latavius Murray who has ties to Broncos GM George Paton from their days in Minnesota. Murray looked strong in his lone game with the Saints rushing for 57 yards and a TD on just 11 carries.
Heading into Week five Gordon will have a tough test on the ground as the Broncos take on a Colts team that has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards in 2022. Prior to Derrick Henry gashing them for 22-112-1, the Colts’ run D allowed the lowest yard per carry output to Dameon Pierce (11-33), James Robinson (23-64), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (7-0). Even though Gordon is expected to be the lead back for the Broncos we should expect Boone and Murray to mix in. This should limit Gordon’s volume, and coming off back-to-back games where he finished below three yards per carry he should slip under his 58.5 yard rushing prop for Week five.
Season Long Betting Tracker 9-6
Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday
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