Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Cowboys vs. Titans)
In Week 17 of our Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions, we get to preview the 11-4 Dallas Cowboys vs. the 7-8 Tennessee Titans. The Cowboys are riding high after a big win vs. the Philadelphia Eagles to keep their hopes of winning the NFC East and the number one seed alive. The Cowboys would love to win these next two games as they currently sit at the five seed and would need to travel to Tampa Bay in the wild-card round.
Meanwhile, the Titans have taken a step back as injuries have decimated them on both sides of the ball. The good news for the Titans is they still control their own destiny as they will play for the AFC South title in a winner take all game vs. the Jaguars in Week 18. Due to this scenario for the Titans, it looks like they are resting most of their key guys to get healthy for that game next week. Finally, the weather in Nashville is 56 degrees with limited wind and no rain, so the game shouldn’t be impacted by the weather.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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This week we will highlight the Same Game Parlay function on DraftKings. If you want to learn more about the same game parlay click here. This function allows you to get alternative player props that are more conservative. Even though these more conservative individual props have worse odds, once you parlay them, you can find ways to get to an overall bet that will give you plus odds on the week. In this article, we will highlight the parlay and then break down each individual bet.
• Ceedee Lamb Receiving Yards Over 59.5
• Robert Woods Receiving Yards Under 49.5
• Treylon Burks Receiving Yards Under 44.5
• Single Game Parlay Odds: +125
Player: CeeDee Lamb
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 59.5
Recommendation: Bet the Over
CeeDee Lamb has really hit his stride since the Cowboys’ Week 9 bye. Over the past seven games, Lamb is third in the NFL in receptions, second in receiving yards, and has scored five touchdowns. Lamb’s elite production has come vs. solid opponents as they faced the Eagles, Vikings, Giants, Jaguars, and Packers. This includes back-to-back big-time games vs. Jaguars (7-126) and Eagles (10-120-2) over the last two weeks. What is unique about Lamb is even though he is the team’s number-one WR, he plays a lot of snaps in the slot. This has allowed Lamb to lead the NFL in slot yards since Week 10. That usage helps him avoid top cornerbacks and get more high-value targets in the middle of the field.
In Week 17, Lamb will have another juicy matchup vs. a reeling Titans DST. The Titans will be down most of their key starters on defense. These injuries have led to the Titans allowing the third most receptions, receiving yards, and the fourth most touchdowns to wide receivers over the past five weeks. This includes allowing opposing teams’ number one wide receiver like Tee Higgins (7-114-1), A.J. Brown (8-119-2), and Keenan Allen (8-86) all to have big games over that stretch. This matchup and Lamb having the hot hand should allow him to eclipse his player prop in Week 17.
Player: Robert Woods
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 49.5
Recommendation: Bet the Under
The news that the Titans will be down Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry makes the team’s outlook look bleak in Week 17. It seems that due to the win-and-get-in scenario the Titans are in for Week 18, they are resting most of their key guys. This includes starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In the three games Tannehill missed in 2022, backup quarterback Malik Willis has thrown for a combined 234 yards and three touchdowns. In those games, tight ends Chigoziem Okonkwo and Austin Hooper have led the team in receiving. Meanwhile, Robert Woods has a combined six catches for 56 yards and has failed to top 30 yards in any of those three games.
This week the Titans will face a Cowboys defense that has been susceptible to outside wide receivers over the past few weeks. This includes allowing big games to Chris Moore (10-124) and Zay Jones (6-109-3). Typically, this would be a solid matchup for Woods, but due to the loss of Tannehill, and the dominance of the Cowboys’ pass rush, it is best to attack Woods’ receiving yards under in Week 17.
Player: Treylon Burks
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 44.5
Recommendation: Bet the Under
Injuries have crushed Treylon Burks’ rookie season. In 2022, Burks has only played over 50% of the snaps in six games. The great news for Burks was one of those games came in his return to the lineup in Week 16. In that game, he played a season-high 82% of the snaps vs. the Texans. The bad news for Burks is that season high in snaps came with backup quarterback Malik Willis. In that game, Burks failed to record a catch, only seeing two targets on the day. This season Burks has been very up and down, going over 45 yards receiving in less than 50% of his games.
In Week 17, Burks should see a lot of work vs. the Cowboys’ top cornerback Trevon Diggs. Diggs has been beaten a few times this year but has proven to step up when needed to shut down top options. Also, with the Titans sitting most of their injured players to rest up for Week 18, there is a chance Burks will play a limited role due to his own injuries in 2022. Therefore with Willis starting along with Burks still rounding into form coming off an injury, we should attack his receiving yards under this week.
Season Long Betting Tracker
Individual bets: 31-21 (60%)
Same Game Parlays: 3-7 (30%)
Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday
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