Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Jaguars vs. Jets)
In Week 16 of our Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions, we get to preview the 6-8 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. the 7-7 New York Jets. Both teams have bounced back after poor 2021 seasons and look to make a push toward the playoffs over the final three weeks of the year.
The Jets have ridden their dominant defense as they continue to search for answers at quarterback. This week they will need to turn back to Zach Wilson, who looked strong in his return to action last week vs. the Lions. On the flip side, the Jaguars have been propped up by their first overall pick Trevor Lawrence who has looked everything like the franchise quarterback he was drafted to be back in 2021. As it stands, both teams are on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture, making this game a must-win for each squad.
Finally, the weather forecast calls for 44 degrees, light wind, and a chance of rain which could have a small impact on the game.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
This week we will highlight the Same Game Parlay function on draft kings. If you want to learn more about the same game parlay, click here. This function allows you to get alternative player props that are more conservative. Even though these more conservative individual props have worse odds, once you parlay them, you can find ways to get to an overall bet that will give you plus odds on the week. In this article, we will highlight the parlay and then break down each individual bet.
- Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Over 34.5
- Zay Jones Receiving Yards Under 69.5
- Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Under 44.5
- Single Game Parlay Odds: +115
Player: Christian Kirk
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 34.5
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Christian Kirk heads into Week 16 just 44 yards shy of his first-ever 1,000-yard season in the NFL. This season Kirk has averaged a career-best 69 yards receiving per game and already has a career-high seven touchdown catches with three games left to go in the year. Kirk has been as consistent as they come, catching at least 60 yards and/or five receptions in 10 of 14 games. In the four games where he failed to get 60 yards, he has caught over 35 yards in two of them. This means Kirk has gone over this week’s receiving yards prop of 35 yards in 86% of his games.
This week Kirk does have a tough test vs. a very stingy Jets DST. The Jets this season have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. However, when diving into the numbers, the Jets have been more susceptible to interior wide receivers. Notable slot wide receivers Tyler Boyd (4-105-1), Jerry Jeudy (7-96), Jakobi Meyers (4-52)/(9-60-1), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (5-53) all were able to eclipse the 35-yard receiving mark. Overall, the matchup should be tough sledding for Kirk, but due to his high-volume usage in the slot, he should be able to hit his over in Week 16.
Player: Tyler Conklin
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 44.5
Recommendation: Bet the Under
The impact a struggling Zach Wilson has had on the Jets’ passing game has been widely known, and the impact it’s had on Tyler Conklin’s production is no different. Conklin has averaged a solid 4.7 receptions for 38 yards per game in the six games without Wilson. Those numbers drop to 2.3 receptions for 25 per game in the eight games with Wilson. In those eight games, Conklin has failed to hit 45 receiving in six contests. In the two games, Conklin hit that mark, Wilson had to throw well over his average attempts per game, going over 35 for the first two times all year.
This week, the Jets take on a Jaguars team that has faced the ninth most pass attempts. This could open the possibility that Wilson sees more pass volume. However, with Conklin splitting time with fellow tight end C.J. Uzomah and the reemergence of Elijah Moore, Conklin has only gone over 45 yards receiving in one game since the Week 10 bye. Due to the competition for targets and the lower production with Wilson, taking the under on Conklin makes sense for Week 16.
Player: Zay Jones
Player Prop: Receiving Yards 69.5
Recommendation: Bet the Under
Zay Jones has set career highs in 2022, eclipsing 70 receptions and 700 yards for the first time in his six-year career. This career year has hit overdrive as of late, as Jones has averaged a ridiculous 7 receptions for 83 yards per game over the last five games. During this stretch, the Jaguars have faced five defenses in the league’s top half in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. This soft schedule has consisted of the improved play of his quarterback, as Trevor Lawrence is fifth in passing yards per game over that timeframe.
In Week 16, Jones will get a much tougher test as he squares off vs. the New York Jets. The Jets, over the past five weeks, have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. This includes holding down solid primary outside wide receivers D.J. Chark (1-18), Stefon Diggs (3-37), and Justin Jefferson (7-45-1) well below their season averages. Jones has been great all season long and has capitalized against softer matchups, but now facing a very tough Jets secondary, it’s best to attack his under in Week 16.
Season Long Betting Tracker
Individual bets: 29-20 (59%)
Same Game Parlays: 3-6 (33%)
Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday
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