Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers vs. Ravens (Week 8)
On Thursday Night, the Ravens head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Both teams find themselves in first place in their divisions, but both need a win to maintain an edge over their competition.
With a spread of Ravens -1.5 and a total of 45.5, this game should be close. Below is a four-leg same-game parlay offered on DraftKings with exceptional value that I’ll be playing Thursday.
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Leg 1: Ravens +4.5 (-250)
While the Ravens have played well this season, they’ve suffered some tough losses and sit at 4-3 coming into Thursday’s game. These losses have all come in games where they’ve blown 4th quarter leads – in all three of their losses, they’ve led by at least 10 points in the final period. It’s uncharacteristic for a team coached by John Harbaugh to have poor late-game execution, but so far this season, the Ravens have failed to close out games. I don’t expect to see this trend hold in Tampa Bay on Thursday. The Bucs have lacked offensive explosiveness all year and have been outscored in their last three fourth quarters.
Outside of the 4th quarter, the Ravens have been a good team this season. Their overall scoring margin is 8th best in the NFL, and their road scoring margin is 2nd best in the NFL. These are indicators that the Ravens may be better than their record says they are – they win big and lose close. In fact, the Ravens haven’t lost by more than 4 points all year, making this alternate spread an attractive number.
I expect Baltimore to show that they’re the better team on Thursday night and pull off a win in Tampa Bay. This alternate spread gives us a bit of a cushion just in case they have more 4th quarter struggles.
Leg 2: Both Teams Total Points U24.5 (+140)
In last Thursday’s Saints/Cardinals game, we saw an explosion of points that differed from the low-scoring Thursday Night Football trends we’ve seen this year. This Thursday, I think we get back to a lower-scoring game.
Both of these defenses have struggled in individual games this year, but both have played well overall. The Buccaneers saw the Chiefs post 41 points on them a few weeks ago – outside of this game, they’ve allowed just 13.8 points per game this season. The Ravens allowed 42 points to the Dolphins in Week 2 – outside of this game, they’ve allowed a solid 19.8 points per game. Additionally, neither offense has looked explosive in recent weeks. Neither team has broken 23 points in any of the last three weeks.
I think this game will be a run-heavy, low-scoring affair. I expect both teams to score 24 or fewer points, in line with recent offensive and defensive trends for both these squads.
Leg 3: Lamar Jackson U244.5 Pass Yards (-225)
Early in the season, Lamar Jackson looked to be emerging as a favorite for MVP. While he’s still playing good football, he’s slipped a bit in the stat lines he’s posted. Jackson has averaged just 172.8 passing yards over his last 4 games, on 27.3 attempts per game.
On the other side, the Buccaneers have played excellent pass defense this year. They haven’t allowed a QB to throw for more than 255 pass yards all year, even despite playing Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. Over their last 3 games (against admittedly poor QB competition), the Bucs have allowed just 178.3 pass yards per game.
I expect Baltimore to be ahead in this game and, therefore, for Jackson to feel little pressure to throw much. Given the recent trends for both Jackson and the Bucs’ pass defense, he should come in comfortably below 245 passing yards on Thursday.
Leg 4: Leonard Fournette O44.5 Rush Yards (-160)
Despite being one of the premier running backs in the NFL, Leonard Fournette is off to a slow start this season. Fournette’s posted 362 yards in 7 games, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Part of this is due to inconsistent opportunity – in 2 of his last 4 games, he received 8 or fewer carries as Rachaad White has taken over a larger share of the volume. Both games were situations where Tampa Bay was down early (Carolina, Kansas City).
I expect the Bucs to hang close with the Ravens on Thursday night, which should open the door for plenty of opportunity for Fournette. This opportunity will come against a Ravens run defense that has been suspect at times – they’ve allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season and have allowed at least 77 rushing yards to RBs in all but one game this year.
Fournette should get enough work Thursday to exploit this defense and post well over 45 rushing yards.
Total Parlay Odds: +500
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