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Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Cardinals vs. Saints)

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This Thursday, the New Orleans Saints head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Both teams sit at 2-4, but both find themselves just a game back of their division leads. These two teams have been disappointing to start the season, but the winner of this game will see themselves jump right back into the playoff picture.

With the Cardinals favored by 2 at home and a total of 44 points on the game, this should be a close one. After reviewing the data, I found a four-leg SGP on Draftkings with value I'm loving for this game.

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Leg 1: Saints Race to 10 Points (+105)

Early in the season, the Arizona Cardinals have settled into a problematic trend. They come out playing a conservative game plan, get down in the first half, and then revert to Kyler Murray playing backyard football once they need to make a comeback. This has led to a surprising stat – the Cardinals have not won a race to 10 points in any of their six games this year. 

Arizona has shown no signs of changing course here. In fact, last week they didn't even break 10 points all game against a Seattle defense that had been spotty all season. The Saints defense hasn't been good this year – they've allowed the 4th most points in the league – but I expect them to handle the Cardinals early if Arizona sticks with their conservative play calling at the beginning of the game.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints offense has hardly been explosive in the first half. They've averaged just 9 first half points per game this season. However, 37 of their 54 first half points on the season have come in the last 2 weeks. If Arizona plays their typical first half gameplan and the Saints stay hot early, New Orleans will have no trouble being the first team to 10 points.

Leg 2: Juwan Johnson O19.5 Receiving Yards (-180)

In his limited role, Juwan Johnson has been a valuable piece for the Saints this season. He’s posted 14 catches on 25 targets for 170 yards in six games. In every game this season where he's seen more than two targets, he's gone for at least 33 receiving yards. With WRs Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry ruled out for Thursday's game, I expect him to see well over 2 targets against the Cardinals.

These targets should pan out especially well against Arizona's defense. The Cardinals have allowed 7.5 catches for 84.0 yards per game to TEs this season – 1st and 2nd most in the NFL, respectively. Johnson plays some TE and some WR, but should be able to take advantage of Arizona's weak interior pass defense wherever he lines up.

Leg 3: Rondale Moore O54.5 Receiving Yards (+125)

The big story for the Cardinals' passing game this week is the return of star WR DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has served a six-game suspension for PED use and now returns just in time to try to offset the loss of Hollywood Brown for the season. Robbie Anderson will be another new face in the Cardinals offense – they traded for the WR after his own coach kicked him out of the game for the Panthers last weekend.

I expect it to take a bit of time for both of these WRs to build rapport with Kyler Murray. For this reason, I think this is a prime breakout spot for Rondale Moore. Moore has seen 13 catches on 18 targets for 117 yards over the last 2 weeks and is a threat at every level of the defense.

This leg also plays well with our "Saints Race to 10" leg – if the Cardinals are down early, I expect them to throw the ball plenty on Thursday. The Saints allow the 4th most receiving yards to WRs this season and will be without star CB Marshon Lattimore against the Cardinals. Moore has everything aligned to put up a big game Thursday night.

Leg 4: Andy Dalton U244.5 Pass Yards (-215)

Andy Dalton has filled in serviceably as a backup for the injured Jameis Winston. He owns a passer rating of 90.6 with a 63.1% completion percentage in 3 games. However, despite the game flow of the Saints' last few games necessitating a pass-heavy game plan, Dalton has failed to put up big yardage numbers this season. He averages just 195 yards per game, and his season high is just 236 yards against the Vikings in Week 4.

With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry hurt, the Saints will relegate Dalton to a more conservative passing gameplan, with plenty of check downs and short throws. Dalton is also nursing a back injury – while he's expected to play Thursday night, he may not be at full strength and likely will see a mechanical impact from the injury.

If the Saints jump out to an early lead, I expect them to chew clock and run the ball late in the game. Dalton likely won't get a chance to put up too many pass attempts. Between a banged up receiver group, a likely low average depth of target, and an expectation of unfavorable passing game script, I don't think Dalton will post a season-high in yardage on Thursday against Arizona.

Final Parlay Odds: +850

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