Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Colts vs. Broncos)
On Thursday night, the Indianapolis Colts head to Denver to take on the Broncos. Both teams are in need of a big win to get back on track after Week 4 losses. Both teams will be without their star running backs, with Broncos RB Javonte Williams out for the season with a torn ACL and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor missing the game with an ankle sprain.
With a spread of Broncos -3.5 and a total of 42.5 on the game, this projects to be a low-scoring, close showdown. Below is a four-leg Same Game Parlay that pays +650 on Draftkings that I love based on these teams’ trends to start the season.
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Leg 1: Nyheim Hines O34.5 Rush Yds
With Jonathan Taylor sidelined on Thursday night, the Colts are expected to deploy a committee backfield. Former Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay should get some carries, but Nyheim Hines is likely to see the biggest bump in usage. Hines has seen the field on 34% of the Colts’ offensive plays this year and has worked mostly as a receiving threat out of the backfield. He's tallied just 11 yards on 8 carries so far in 2022.
Despite a lack of opportunity on the ground this season, Hines has been a pretty effective runner when given the chance in his career. In 2021, Hines averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 56 carries – a small carry total with Taylor leading the backfield.
On Thursday night, I expect Hines to get a significant share of the Colts' carries. This should give him a chance for a solid game on the ground against the Broncos’ defense. Denver has been ineffective in stopping the run this year. Despite being around league average in rushing yards allowed this season, the Broncos are actually the second-worst rush defense in terms of yards per carry (5.4).
I expect Hines to get something in the neighborhood of 8-12 carries on Thursday. Given the Broncos’ poor run defense, this should result in him finishing with 35 rush yards or more.
Leg 2: Jerry Jeudy U64.5 Receiving Yards
Coming into the season, Jerry Jeudy was a trendy pick for a breakout season. With Russell Wilson projected as an improvement at QB and Jeudy's first-round draft pedigree, there was a path to a big statistical season. While Jeudy has flashed his excellent skill set this season, the big numbers haven't necessarily come to fruition.
In the three complete games Jeudy has played (left early in Week 2), he has 10 catches on 18 targets for 172 yards. This includes a 102-yard game on 4 catches against Seattle in Week 1. He's a big play threat, but his two biggest games this season have come against two bottom-ten pass defenses. Despite some early-season struggles, the Colts have actually been a very good pass defense against WRs this season. The Indianapolis defense ranks tied for the fewest catches allowed to WRs (10.0/game), 1st in fewest yards per catch to WRs (11.4), and 1st in fewest yards per game to WRs (114.0.game).
The Broncos rank in the bottom quarter of the league in targets per game to WRs. I don't expect Jeudy to get many opportunities, and every yard he gets against the Colts’ defense will be tightly contested. In what will likely be a low-scoring game, I think he'll be held under 65 receiving yards.
While Russell Wilson's start to the season has been under the microscope in Denver, the Broncos’ defense had a nice stretch to begin the season. That stretch was disrupted last week in Las Vegas, as the Raiders put up 32 points against the Broncos (with 7 of them being scored on a defensive TD). Denver's defense should be able to get back on track against a Colts offense that hasn't been too impressive to start the season.
Indianapolis' offense has struggled to put up big numbers this year – they haven't broken 20 points in a game yet. They've scored exactly 20 points twice against two below-average defenses: Houston and Kansas City.
The Broncos’ defense ranks in the top 5 in points allowed (17.0) even after their tough game against the Raiders. This has been mainly due to excellent red zone defense on the season. The Broncos have allowed the fewest red zone TDs this season, on the 5th lowest red zone TD % allowed. Without Jonathan Taylor, I expect the Colts to struggle once they get within scoring range.
The Broncos also rank top 5 in sacks to start 2022, while the Colts rank bottom five in sacks allowed. This bodes poorly for the Colts' odds of putting up points on Thursday. It also plays into the case for the final leg of the parlay.
Through four games, Colts QB leads the NFL in fumbles with 9. Averaging over two fumbles per game, it's a bit surprising that Ryan has only lost 3 (still tied for 2nd in the league).
While the Broncos have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, they also are one of the best teams at forcing fumbles. They've forced 6 on the season, and recovered 3.
The numbers would say that Ryan is likely to fumble the ball at least once on Thursday night, and possibly more than once. And even if the fumble doesn't come from Ryan, Nyheim Hines will be shouldering the load of the rushing game after fumbling once this season on 25 touches and three times last season on 96 touches. Given that Draftkings is offering this prop at plus-money (+105), I love the chances of the Broncos falling on one of the fumbles they force Thursday.
Four-leg Same Game Parlay that pays +650
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