Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Commanders vs. Bears)
On Thursday, the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears square off in a must-win game for both teams. Both are riding losing streaks, with the Commanders having lost four straight games and the Bears coming off two straight losses.
With a total of just 37.5 and a spread of Bears -1, this is expected to be a tight, low-scoring game. Below is a four-leg parlay that pays +930 on FanDuel that I love for Thursday’s matchup.
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Leg 1: Bears +6.5 Alternate Spread
With a 2-3 record on the season, the Bears haven’t exactly lit the world on fire this season. Their two wins have come at the buzzer against Houston, and in a downpour against the 49ers. Their three losses, however, have been fairly respectable. The three teams they’ve lost to have a combined record of 11-4 on the season, and two of the three losses were by one possession.
The reason I expect Chicago to play well on Sunday and keep things close, if not win the game, is the play of QB Justin Fields last week. Fields has struggled at times this year, but on Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, he had his best outing of the season. He completed 15 of 21 pass attempts for 208 yards and a TD. While this line looks like a typical half for a QB such as Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, it does represent a big step in the right direction for Fields.
The Commanders’ pass defense ranks bottom-seven in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt, meaning that Fields should have a chance to build on his positive game last week, even if he doesn’t do it on large volume. Given that Fields should perform well, and that the Bears have played good teams close all year, I fully expect them to be competitive against an inferior Commanders team. Factor in the Commanders’ lack of late-game execution, and a very low total in the game, and an alternate spread of +6.5 should be no problem for the Bears to cover.
Leg 2: O30.5 Alternate Total Points
As I mentioned, the total for this game is already very low, at 37.5 points per game. While neither of these teams has really gotten things figured out on offense, I think this game will be higher scoring than most people expect.
For starters, both teams have struggling pass defenses. Both units rank bottom-10 in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt. This will give Fields a chance to gain his footing and perform well, but it could also mean a big day through the air for a Washington team that throws the ball 42 times per game – third most in the NFL.
Both teams also turn the ball over at abnormally high rates. The two teams both have eight turnovers this season, which puts them tied for 8th in the NFL for most turnovers. With two bad pass defenses, and two teams that are prone to giving their opponents short fields, I think this game will go over 37.5. I brought this total down to 30.5 to give us some room for error, and put some key numbers in our range of outcomes (31, 34, 35, and 37 total points).
Leg 3: Brian Robinson 60+ Rush Yards
After rookie Brian Robinson was shot in the leg less than two weeks before the season started, his season was in doubt. Somehow, Robinson has managed to make a full recovery in a very short amount of time. Robinson was the feature back last week against Tennessee, carrying the ball 9 times for 22 yards. The yardage total was a bit disappointing, but it came against a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in rush yards allowed per game this season.
With Ron Rivera capitalizing on every opportunity he can to throw his own players under the bus, he made it clear this week that Antonio Gibson will likely see work on punt returns. All signs point to Robinson being the workhorse on Thursday night against a Bears defense that ranks bottom 5 in the NFL in rush yards per game allowed to RBs. If the game flow can be a bit friendlier to the Commanders (I expect it to be closer than last week’s game due to the low game total) Robinson should be in line for at least 12-15 carries against a bad rush defense.
This is the most ambitious leg of the parlay, but I still like the value here as Robinson continues to work his way back and establish himself in his rookie year.
Leg 4: Equanimeous St. Brown O18.5 Receiving Yds
While his brother, Amon-Ra St. Brown, has been one of the breakout stars of the season so far, Equanimeous St. Brown has made the most of his opportunities. The Bears’ St. Brown has averaged 18.3 yards per catch on 6 catches this season, in an offense that has struggled to throw the ball at times. St. Brown is second among Bears WRs with 13 targets this season, good for a 27.6% target share among throws going to WRs.
I expect the Bears to open up their passing game a bit more this week against the Commanders’ bad pass defense after Fields’ nice game last week. The next few months will be make-or-break for Fields in Chicago, and I expect them to take every opportunity to see what he can do now that he’s shown flashes.
Given St. Brown’s high yard-per-catch mark, and the fact that I expect Fields to throw the ball more than he normally does this game, I think St. Brown should see enough targets to eclipse this low yardage total. This is especially true against a Commanders defense that allows the third-most yards per catch to WRs of any defense in the NFL. St. Brown can absolutely get 19 or more yards on one catch, and if he can string together multiple catches this should cash easily.
Total four-leg parlay odds: +930
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