Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Texans (Week 9)
This Thursday, the Eagles and Texans will square off in Houston. These two teams are heading in different directions. Philadelphia is 7-0, the lone undefeated team in the NFL, while Houston is 1-5-1 and on the short list of teams that could end up with the top overall pick in next year’s draft. The books are reflecting this discrepancy – the Eagles are two-touchdown favorites on the road.
Even if the game doesn’t end up being a thriller, there’s plenty of interesting value in prop markets when a unique line such as this comes up. Below are two touchdown scorer props I’ll be rolling with for Thursday’s game.
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Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Texans
Miles Sanders Anytime TD (-105 DK)
After a 2021 season in which Miles Sanders scored no TDs, the expectation coming into this season was that he would get little goal-line work. Just the opposite has proved true, and Sanders is tied for 12th in the NFL with 19 red zone opportunities (carries + targets) this season. This is despite Eagles QB Jalen Hurts being 3rd in the NFL with 25 red zone opportunities. The duo has scored 10 TDs on 44 red zone opportunities – a very efficient rate.
Sanders will go against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL on Thursday. After a brutal game from the Texans’ run defense against Derrick Henry and the Titans last week, Houston allows 159.3 rush yards per game to RBs. This is the most in the league by a wide margin – the gap between Houston and the second-worst run defense (Chargers) is wider than the gap between the Chargers and the 14th-worst run defense (Colts). Houston has also allowed 11 TDs to RBs in 7 games this year – the most TDs allowed to RBs in the NFL.
With the Eagles’ offense likely in for a big night, Sanders should get plenty of work around the red zone. I expect his volume against the worst run defense in the NFL to provide plenty of opportunity for a TD, and I love this prop even with the -120 price tag.
Jalen Hurts First TD (+550 DK)
Even though he has the shortest odds on the board, I like the value for Jalen Hurts to score the first TD of Thursday’s game. Hurts has six rushing TDs this year, including four TDs that were the Eagles’ first team TD of the game. As mentioned before, he’s tied for 3rd in the NFL in red zone attempts. He’s exceptional at running with the ball and converts TDs at a high rate.
I expect the Eagles to score first in the game, and given past trends, Hurts is the most likely Eagle to score first. Miles Sanders is a threat here, but given that we’re playing his anytime TD odds, that hedges some of the risk taken on with the longer odds of a first TD play.
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