Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Commanders vs. Bears)
This Thursday, NFL Week 6 kicks off with the Washington Commanders heading to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Commanders are sitting at 1-4 after four straight losses, while the Bears sit at 2-3, losers of two straight.
With a total of just 37.5, this projects to be the lowest scoring game of the week. These two offenses rank in the bottom quarter of the league in points scored. As I have said before in games with low totals, this means there’s great value to be had in TD props. Below are three TD props I’m playing in this Thursday’s game.
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Justin Fields Anytime TD +210
When the Bears find themselves in the red zone, Justin Fields is comfortable taking matters into his own hands. Fields has nine red zone carries in five games so far this year, and one TD.
The Bears have made it obvious that they don’t want to rely on Fields to throw the ball. He averages just 17.6 pass attempts per game, and hadn’t broken 200 yards passing until the Bears found themselves trailing early last week and had to throw to catch up. Fields has thrown just 3 TDs all season, which is why I’m staying off of any receiver TD props for the Bears.
What Fields lacks in passing stats, however, he makes up for in rushing. Fields averages 38.8 yards on 8.4 rush attempts per game, and has scored a TD already this year. The Commanders have defended the QB run relatively well this year, but I expect the Bears to continue to use Fields’ ability to get out of the pocket and run with the ball both through designed plays and when pass plays break down.
With David Montgomery easing his way back from injury, and Khalil Herbert seeing his opportunities cut last week, Fields is as good a bet as any Bear to get into the end zone on Thursday. Given the price, sitting with significantly longer odds than Montgomery, this is a bet worth taking.
Curtis Samuel Anytime TD +250
After years of being an injury liability, Curtis Samuel is finally healthy and making a huge impact for Washington this season. Samuel has hauled in 6.4 catches on 9.0 targets per game. Samuel has scored two TDs this season, both on red zone targets. Samuel’s 21.4% target share is the highest on the team by a wide margin.
Washington throws the ball 42.0 times per game, third most in the NFL. I expect them to go to the air often once again Thursday as they try to get Carson Wentz going. The Bears defense is pretty good overall, but they’re above the league average in yards per catch allowed (12.8).
I expect Samuel to lead Washington in targets, and expect him to get red zone looks. Given that he’s got +250 odds to score despite being the target leader on one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league, this is excellent value.
Brian Robinson First TD +950
In one of the crazier recoveries in recent NFL memory, Brian Robinson made his debut last week just over a month after he was shot in the leg. Not only did Robinson play on Sunday, but he led the team in carries, outpacing Antonio Gibson 9 to 3. With one healthy game under his belt, I expect Robinson’s usage to see an uptick on Thursday. Commanders Head Coach Ron Rivera suggested Gibson would see his usage diminish, as he hinted at possible reps on the punt return team for the back who started the first four games for the Commanders.
Given that Robinson, a back built for short yardage, is likely to lead the team in carries, the odds of him to score at +950 feel far too long. If the Commanders sustain a long drive early in the game, I expect them to give Robinson every chance to score from short yardage.
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