Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Predictions (Chiefs vs. Chargers)

Last weekend, a thrilling Week 1 welcomed us to the 2022 NFL season with upsets, blowouts, tight finishes, and even a tie game. As we've spent the last couple of days coming down from the high of the first full football weekend, we're about to get thrown back into the deep end. In a highly anticipated matchup between the AFC West leaders, the Chiefs and Chargers kick off Thursday night, and with a total of 54.5 this game projects to be the highest scoring of the week. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert have had some great matchups in the past, and this week should be no different as both are coming off of convincing Week 1 wins.

With an offensive showdown likely, there are sure to be plenty of players getting into the end zone Thursday night. Let's take a look at four touchdown scorer bets that I'm playing to take advantage of one of the most exciting offensive matchups of the season.

Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Predictions: Anytime TD Scorer

Josh Palmer Anytime TD (+240 FD)

Of every bet to be made on this game, Palmer to score at +240 is the best value in my eyes. Palmer posted an uninspiring line in Week 1 against the Raiders (3 catches on 4 targets, 5 yards). In Week 2, however, the Chargers come into the game without star WR Keenan Allen (hamstring). One player alone won't be able to offset the impact of losing Allen, but Palmer appears to be the biggest beneficiary on paper. In one game played without Allen last year, Palmer hauled in 5 catches on 7 targets for 66 yards and a TD.

Palmer has a knack for turning targets into TD's. In 2021, Palmer saw 49 targets and turned them into 4 TDs. This 12.3 targets-to-TD ratio was much lower than the Chargers' receiving core as a whole (17.7). Palmer is in line to play as the WR2 behind Mike Williams on Thursday night. Justin Herbert posted 38 pass attempts in both games against the Chiefs last year so there's very little blocking Palmer from seeing 8-10 targets on Thursday. His odds of converting one of these into a TD are high enough that I'm loving the +240 price offered here.

Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD (+380 FD)

After the Chiefs' Week 1 win over the Cardinals, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the big winner out of the Kansas City backfield for fantasy owners. CEH caught two TD passes from Patrick Mahomes, both inside the five-yard line. He played sparingly in the second half, as the majority of the running game work was ceded to rookie Isiah Pacheco with the Chiefs up by plenty. Edwards-Helaire's anytime TD price of +125 reflects the work he got around the goal line.

Jerick McKinnon, however, is the RB option I prefer at +380. McKinnon was on the field for 39% of the Chiefs' offensive plays last week, a higher proportion than any other back on the team. This included 51% of the Chiefs' pass plays, compared to just 38% of pass plays including Edwards-Helaire. This pass play discrepancy could lead to a significant share of the RB workload against the Chargers for McKinnon. In two games against Los Angeles last season, the Chiefs ran 91 pass plays compared to just 50 run plays. This is due in large part to the high-scoring Chargers offense pushing the tempo and forcing Kansas City to keep up. 

Edwards-Helaire may see a higher snap count than in Week 1 as this game projects to be closer than last week's blowout. That said, McKinnon will be seeing plenty of work against the Chargers. With the Chiefs' willingness to pass to RB's near the goal line, and McKinnon's involvement in the passing game thus far, I'm loving the value in betting McKinnon to score at over 3x the payout you can get on CEH.

Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Predictions: First TD Scorer

Austin Ekeler First TD Scorer (+650 FD)

Despite being a TD machine in 2021, Ekeler posted a fairly disappointing stat line against Las Vegas in Week 1. Ekeler averaged just 4 yards per touch on 18 touches and was held out of the end zone. In Week 2, the Chargers will be looking to feed their star RB. Ekeler is going to be key for the Chargers offense, especially with the absence of Keenan Allen taking away Justin Herbert's usual safety blanket on underneath work.

Whether the touches come through the air or on the ground, Ekeler will be getting plenty of work Thursday night against a Chiefs defense that allowed their first TD to RB James Connor in Week 1. Ekeler was spelled by Sony Michel and Josh Kelley as the game went on last week, but got plenty of work on the first drive of the game. I'd look for Brandon Staley to set a tone on the game's first drive with his best offensive playmaker. He’ll get Ekeler enough work early that his +650 price to score first will be a good value play.

Travis Kelce First TD Scorer (+650 FD)

Last week, Travis Kelce scored the first TD of the Chiefs/Cardinals game. Kelce has been an absolute beast in the red zone for his entire Chiefs career, but his scoring prospects are better than ever this season with Tyreek Hill in Miami. He posted a 23% target share for the Chiefs in Week 1, despite being on the field for only 64% of offensive snaps. Kelce saw two red zone targets in Week 1, including the aforementioned TD catch. It's worth noting that five of the Chiefs’ 13 red zone targets the Chiefs went to tight ends. This includes two targets for Noah Gray and one for Jody Fortson. 

Kelce should see a larger share of these targets in a game that projects to be much closer this week. He will absolutely see the lion’s share of these targets on the first couple of drives of the game as the Chiefs look to establish the passing game and lean on their top playmaker early. At +650, Kelce is a nice value to score the first TD of the game on Thursday.

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