Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Picks & Predictions (Colts vs. Broncos)
This Thursday, the Colts head to Denver to take on the Broncos. Both teams are coming off of losses in Week 4, with Indianapolis falling at home to Tennessee and Denver suffering a loss to the formerly-winless Raiders.
Both offenses have struggled this year. Despite this, I see plenty of value in TD props in Thursday’s game. Both defenses had rough games last week, and injury misfortune will create opportunity for some lesser-known players. Below are three TD plays I'm rolling with on Thursday.
Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Picks & Predictions (Colts vs. Broncos)
Latavius Murray Any Time TD (+300 BetMGM)
After Sunday's unfortunate injury to star RB Javonte Williams, the Broncos signed Murray this week. Murray should get playing time immediately in a rotation with Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone, although his carry count may be limited. He will only have a few days with the team under his belt before Thursday's game.
Without Williams, their leader in carries before his injury, I expect the Broncos to take more of a committee approach. This means Gordon could see a slight volume increase with the remainder split between Boone and Murray. Murray should be in line to inherit Williams' short-yardage volume, with Boone getting looks on passing downs and spotting Gordon.
The Colts have the second-worst red zone defense in the league, allowing TDs on 80% of opponent drives. If the Broncos can drive the ball into the red zone and set themselves up for carries inside the 5-yard line, I love Murray's odds to get in the end zone.
Mo Alie-Cox Any Time TD (+470 FanDuel)
Despite having star RB Jonathan Taylor in the backfield all season, the Colts have been a pass-happy team inside the 10-yard line. Sixty-three percent of the Colts snaps within the 10 have been passes. Taylor has just six carries from that distance all year despite being a dominant short-yardage RB.
With Taylor's health in question for Thursday's game, I expect that trend to exaggerate against the Broncos. Nyheim Hines, who will see an uptick in workload even if Taylor is healthy enough to play, isn’t a short-yardage threat. Indianapolis has found success this year throwing to TEs within scoring range. On six red zone targets, Colts TEs have four TDs on 5 catches inside the 20. If Taylor cannot go or is limited, I expect the TE group for Indianapolis to get a big boost in short-yardage opportunities.
Alie-Cox has been a legit scoring threat over the last couple of seasons, averaging a TD every 9.8 targets. I expect Ryan to look his way in the red zone against Denver, and at +470, it's absolutely a bet worth taking.
Courtland Sutton First TD (+750 FanDuel)
Despite Russell Wilson's shaky start to the season, he has built a rapport with WR Courtland Sutton. Sutton owns a 29% target share on the season and a 32.4% share in the first quarter. Wilson has often looked his way early when the Broncos need a big play. Sutton has been the recipient of three of the Broncos' six first-quarter red zone targets, with two of the other three going to the injured Javonte Williams.
The Colts have been good against wide receivers this year, but I still expect Wilson to look Sutton's way in short-yardage scenarios where he can take advantage of his height and pull down a jump ball.
Sutton's Any Time TD price of +140 is also a solid bet, but Sutton does his best in the first quarter, both in terms of opportunity and production. The Broncos will frequently look to their best healthy playmaker on Thursday, and I think he's got a very solid chance of scoring the first TD of the game.
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