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Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Props: Buccaneers vs. Ravens (Week 8)

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This Thursday, Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady will square off as the Ravens head to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers. The Ravens are coming off a win against Cleveland in Week 7, while the Bucs are trying to recover from a shocking loss in Carolina. 

With a total of 45.5 on the game and a spread of Ravens -1.5, the books expect both offenses to perform fairly well. This should leave us with plenty of value in TD Prop bets. Below are three props I’ll be playing Thursday night.

Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Props: Buccaneers vs. Ravens (Week 8)

Devin Duvernay Anytime TD (+250)

While Rashod Bateman was the Ravens WR receiving most of the fantasy hype coming into the season, Devin Duvernay has played well to start 2022 and is keeping pace with Bateman in all major stat categories. Duvernay has 20 catches on 28 targets for 282 yards and 3TDs on the season. He plays his best when the Ravens get into scoring range – in the red zone this season, Duvernay has logged 5 catches on 7 targets and scored 2 TDs. Each of these red zone marks is second on the Ravens behind Mark Andrews.

Duvernay should have an excellent chance to get in the end zone against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed one TD to a WR in each of their last three games. All three of these TDs came on plays that started in their own red zone. Tampa Bay has struggled recently to defend against opposing WRs where they’re most likely to score.

Given Duvernay’s outperformance in the red zone and the relative weakness of the Buccaneers to defend WRs when they approach scoring range, +250 is an exceptional price here.

Leonard Fournette Anytime TD (-110)

Leonard Fournette came into the season as the workhorse RB for the Buccaneers, but he’s only scored once this season. This is despite Fournette getting 12 red zone carries on the year, accounting for 75% of all Bucs’ red zone carries.

I’d speculate that Fournette’s low TD conversion rate and low usage last week (only eight carries) are giving this prop a better price than it should be. Fournette is still the red zone workhorse for an offense that I expect to move the ball well Thursday night. 

The Ravens have allowed RBs to punch in three rushing TDs in the last two games, all on red zone carries. If Tampa Bay doesn’t find themselves down early on Thursday, Fournette should get multiple opportunities to score near the end zone against a poor rush defense. While these odds are nothing exciting, I believe this price has a good value.

Gus Edwards First TD (+950)

In Edwards’ return from injury last week, he scored two TDs on 16 carries against the Browns. It was an impressive debut, and it included a dominant 10 to 3 share of carries in the first half over fellow RB Kenyan Drake. Edwards is clearly the Ravens’ short-yardage back of choice with JK Dobbins out.

The Buccaneers have played well against the run this year, but they’ve allowed a rushing TD to an RB in 3 of their last 4 games. If the Ravens have an RB score early, it will likely be Edwards rather than Drake. Despite this, both Edwards and Drake are priced at +950 to score the first TD of the game. I think this represents a pricing inefficiency and that Edwards should carry a much more conservative price than Drake.

This will be a great game to capitalize on Edwards’ first TD odds before he’s priced lower going forward.

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