Thursday’s Best Bets: NBA, College Basketball & NHL
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Today’s Best Bets
Here are today’s best NBA bets.
NBA Best Bets
NBA Same Game Parlay Picks
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
- Leg 1: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 34.5 Points (-118)
- Leg 2: Jrue Holiday Under 20.5 Points (-122)
- Leg 3: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 5.5 Assists (+112)
With Giannis not 100% due to right knee soreness, I am simply fading the Bucks tonight on the road in Chicago. With the All-Star Break looming, this is a perfect trap game for Milwaukee, who has won 11-straight, as a seven-point favorite.
Both scoring props are too high in my opinion and to go along with it, I'm adding the correlated play that Giannis' facilitating won't be as high either. He may even get a knock in playing time and without him on the court, the Bucks obviously suffer.
Chicago plays better at home and I trust them to keep up with the Bucks more than they are given credit for. I'll be putting one unit on this SGP.
Parlay Odds: +578
- Ryan Coleman
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NBA Game Picks
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
It feels a lot like the wrong team is favored here. In the short term, Phoenix is not as good (on paper, see 538’s player ratings here) as they were prior to their trade for Kevin Durant– but they’re still a formidable team and capable of taking care of the Clippers on their home court. See just this past Tuesday for evidence, as Phoenix’s stars showed out in a crucial win over Sacramento. Too, note how well the Suns have performed at home this season: they’re 17-12 ATS and 20-9 SU at the Footprint Center.
The Advanced Stats suggest Phoenix to be the far better overall team as well– and although much of this data is skewed due to either rest or roster turnover, the sentiment still holds. Further, the projected starting five of the Suns (Paul, Booker, Craig, Ayton, Okogie) far outpaces the projected five for Los Angeles (Mann, George, Leonard, Morris, Zubac) in Net Rating. Granted, neither lineup has played extensive minutes this season, but such disparity reinforces the notion that the Clippers are wrongfully favored tonight.
Bet: Suns +1 (-110)
- Tommy Jurgens
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First Basket Scorer
Washington Wizards vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
In a game in November, the Wizards won the tip with Kristaps Porzingis over Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves. That’s likely to happen again tonight.
Washington has won the tip 68% of the time. The Wizards have also attempted the first shot in 65% of games and have scored the first basket in 61% of games.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has scored more first baskets. But the Timberwolves haven’t won the tip as many times.
Porzingis has attempted 13 first shots and has 11 first baskets made. He, Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma are the three players you can trust in this spot. But Porzingis has a bit more volume, which is why I’ll go with him.
Bet: Kristaps Porzingis (+420)
- Jason Radowitz
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NBA Prop Bets
Kristaps Porzingis Over 23.5 Points (-111 FanDuel)
Both these teams are fighting to make the playoffs. The Wizards are 27-30 and tenth in the Eastern Conference. Minnesota is 31-29 and sitting at eighth in the West. Every game matters at this point in the season. That means both of these teams will do their best to win.
Both Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns have been dealing with injuries this season. That has allowed opposing centers to score points against the Timberwolves. One of these centers is Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis has had a resurgence this season with the Wizards. He averages 23.0 points per game, but the last time he played the Timberwolves, he scored 41 points. Porzingis could do the same thing tonight against the Timberwolves.
- Cameron Lynch
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College Basketball Best Bets
College Basketball Game Picks
Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount Spread
Gonzaga is in the rare position of seeking revenge against a conference opponent, as Loyola Marymount ended their 75-game home winning streak earlier this season. Gonzaga has lost twice in the same season to a conference opponent just once since 2012 (lost twice to Saint Mary’s in 2016), so we feel confident in head coach Mark Few’s abilities to devise a game plan to avoid another upset.
Though the Lions have been a giant killer this season with wins over Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, they have lost three of their last four, and their defense has been exposed in that stretch. For example, in recent losses to BYU, San Diego, and Santa Clara, the Lions allowed those opponents to shoot a combined 23-of-50 (46%) from 3-point range and surrendered 1.28 points per possession or more in two of those losses. Thus, a Gonzaga offense that ranks second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom) is licking its chops to get right in this rematch. In addition, the Bulldogs should have plenty of clean trips, as they are the league’s best team at taking care of the basketball (13.3% turnover percentage), while the Lions force turnovers at the tenth-lowest rate (10.3%) among all West Coast Conference teams.
Gonzaga is just 1-6 ATS on the road this season, but we expect it to cover, given that the game means a little more to the Bulldogs this time.
Bet: Gonzaga -8 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Mike Spector
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Check out our best NHL bets.
NHL Best Bets
NHL Game Picks
New Jersey Devils (-150) @ St. Louis Blues (+130) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)
The Central Division’s St. Louis Blues host the Metropolitan Division’s New Jersey Devils on ESPN. Simply put, New Jersey is better than St. Louis in almost every facet of the game.
At 5-on-5, the Devils rank seventh in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and eighth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). On the other hand, the Blues rank just 26th in the league in xGF/60 and 25th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
New Jersey also boasts the advantage in net as goaltender Vitek Vanecek is slated to start between the pipes. Through 35 appearances in the crease this season, Vanecek is 23-5-3 with a .916 save percentage (SV%) and 2.31 goals against average (GAA).
Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 10th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Across the ice, goaltender Jordan Binnington is slated to start for St. Louis.
This season, Binnington possesses a worse SV%, GAA, and GSAx/60 at 5-on-5 than Vanecek. With the better offense, defense, goaltender, and potential return of superstar forward Jack Hughes, the Devils are the team to back in this nationally televised game.
Best Bet: Devils ML (-150 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tony Sartori
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NHL Same Game Parlay
Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals
- Leg 1: Panthers ML (-120)
- Leg 2: UNDER 6.5 Total Goals (+105)
- Leg 3: Matthew Tkachuk Anytime Goal (+100)
The Panthers come in with one of the better offenses in the league with the best Expected Goals For in the league. All the superstars are contributing recently — Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Reinhart combining for eight goals and 16 assists in the last seven games.
Sergei Bobrovsky will be in between the pipes, and he’s starting to turn it around. Recently he’s 4-1-0 and has allowed multiple goals in just one of those starts.
December was a great month for the Capitals, but they’ve had a horrendous two months since.
The injuries continue to be a problem. Tom Wilson was recently put on injured reserve, joining Connor Brown, John Carlson, and Carl Hagelin, with no timetable for any of their returns.
We also won’t see Alex Ovechkin for some time, as he will be away from the team due to the death of his father.
A stellar offense with an improving Bobrovsky against a depleted offense should have the Panthers roll to two points.
Parlay Odds: +652
- John Supowitz
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NHL Player Prop Bets
Dougie Hamilton OVER 0.5 Assists (-115)
The Devils' have been one of their more constantly well-performing teams, and they should be a fun to watch in the playoffs. The offense continues to be the catalyst for their dominance and is fourth in Expected Goal Percentage, and add their toughness on defense, and they have the four best-Expected Point Differential.
Hamilton has been incredible this year as an offensive defenseman. He's coming into this game with an assist in five of his last eight and had one in the previous matchup against St. Louis.
- John Supowitz
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NHL Goal In First Ten (GIFT) Picks
Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals
The Panthers will not repeat as President Trophy winners, but they look like a team that could make a playoff push.
The offense featuring Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Reinhart has been great and is second-best in Expected Goal Percentage.
The goaltending had been their weak point, but Sergei Bobrovsky is playing better by winning four of his last five and is allowing 1.40 goals per game in that span.
The Capitals have taken a significant dip over the last few weeks and, right now, are barely hanging onto that final Wild Card spot in the east.
The injuries continued, with Tom Wilson being put on Injured Reserve. He joins Connor Brown, John Carlson, and Karl Hagelin, who are not likely to return to the lineup anytime soon. Alex Ovechkin will also miss time after the death of his father.
The Panthers have seen the GIFT go over in three of their last five, and the Capitals in seven of their last ten. I’m confident Florida will help push this over.
Pick: OVER 0.5 Goals (-160)
- John Supowitz
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