Thursday’s Best Bets: NBA, NHL & College Basketball (3/2)
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Today’s Best Bets
Here are today’s best NBA bets.
NBA Best Bets
NBA Same Game Parlay Picks
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors
- Leg 1: Kawhi Leonard Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116)
- Leg 2: Ivica Zubac Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115)
- Leg 3: Kawhi Leonard Over 3.5 Assists (-140)
With this game being played at Golden State, there will be plenty of possessions in this game and thus an over paradise. Sometimes books will over-adjust for changes in the pace of play but I don't see that here with these lines from FanDuel.
Kawhi is quite capable of pulling in seven boards, doing so in the most recent game against Golden State. At plus odds, I am all over that. To go along with an uncorrelated play taking Zubac's over-rebound total simply adds extra value to this SGP. With the big man averaging 10+ boards a game this season, I am not too worried about him getting to nine.
Kawhi's assists simply sweetened the pot for me. The Clippers will have plenty of scoring opportunities and Leonard has plenty of options for facilitating which makes me confident in throwing one unit on this parlay.
Parlay Odds: +515
- Ryan Coleman
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NBA Game Picks
Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs
There’s some fear that this is a trap, but we can’t be scared of monsters under the bed. The Spurs are the worst team in basketball by just about every metric (Adjusted Net Rating, Net Rating, Pts/Poss, etc.), and, prior to their victory over the Jazz, had lost sixteen straight games.
Conversely, the Pacers have played well lately. Indiana has covered in each game since the All-Star break, with their lone loss being an admirable one — a 142-138 OT loss to the Celtics. The projected starting five for the Pacers (Haliburton, Nembhard, Hield, Nesmith, Turner) is more than respectable, boasting a positive Net Rating on the year, and trumping any lineup the Spurs can throw at them.
San Antonio got the better of Indiana earlier this year, but that was a long time ago, and the Spurs have firmly entrenched themselves in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes since then. Back the Pacers to cover the spread on Thursday night, as they continue to push for the last play-in spot in the Eastern Conference.
Bet: Pacers -4 (-110)
- Tommy Jurgens
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First Basket Scorer
Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
The Toronto Raptors have only won the tip in 44% of games this season. They’ve also attempted the first shot in only 51% of games this year. On the other hand, the Wizards have earned the tip in 67% of games while taking the first shot in 64% of games.
The Wizards will likely win the tip and take the first shot. Washington has earned the first basket in 59% of games this season.
The go-to player for the Wizards is usually Kristaps Porzingis. Of the 26 first baskets made, Porzingis has 10 first baskets, along with 12 first shots. Back Porzingis to score first tonight.
Bet: Kristaps Porzingis (+450)
- Jason Radowitz
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NBA Prop Bets
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
These are two of the lesser teams in the NBA. The Pacers are 28-35, while the Spurs have a 15-47 record. The good news for bettors is that wins and losses do not matter in player-prop betting.
The player with the most betting value tonight is Myles Turner. Over the last three games, he has averaged 29.3 points per game. Tonight he plays the worst defense in the NBA. That defense also lacks a frontcourt. This means Turner will have plenty of scoring opportunities tonight.
Myles Turner Over 22.5 Points (-111)
- Cameron Lynch
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College Basketball Best Bets
College Basketball Game Picks
Arizona vs. USC
Arizona is an enigma, ranking as the Pac-12 leader in adjusted offensive efficiency and playing at the league’s fastest tempo, despite two of its best offensive players standing 6-foot-11 and 7 feet tall. When the Wildcats lose, teams force them to work in the half-court, as they have been held to fewer than 80 points in four of their five losses. USC was close to doing that in the first meeting, allowing just 81 points, despite the Wildcats having one of their best 3-point shooting games (12-of-24). The Trojans’ elite rim protection (they rank second in the nation in 2-point percentage allowed) held Arizona to 47% shooting inside the arc, which is no easy feat given it ranks top ten among all D-1 teams in that regard.
Conversely, USC has been held to 68.7 points in its last three games against non-bottom-three Pac-12 teams. Arizona’s mammoth front line should again pose issues for a Trojans offense that gets 26.2% of its offense from the 3-point line (308th in the country).
The Over has cashed in both games USC has played as home underdogs, but we expect it to bring this game to a snail’s pace.
Bet: Arizona-USC Under 155 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Mike Spector
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Check out our best NHL bets.
NHL Best Bets
NHL Game Picks
Ottawa Senators (+143) @ New York Rangers (-175) | O/U 6.5 (-113/-108)
To kick off Thursday’s slate, future Hall of Famer Patrick Kane makes his New York Rangers debut as they host the Ottawa Senators. A dynamic playmaker, Kane rejoins winger Artemi Panarin to re-connect one of the most dominant pairings the league saw back when they both played in Chicago.
Their chemistry was immediate when wearing the red sweater, and Panarin has improved immensely in the years apart. It is uncertain whether Panarin and Kane will re-unite on the same line (most likely), but they definitely will work together on the first power play unit.
That pairing should once again be problematic for Ottawa, a team that ranks 28th in the league in penalty minutes. Additionally, the Senators rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Backing up this defense is goaltender Cam Talbot, who is slated to get the nod between the pipes for Ottawa. A fade-worthy netminder, Talbot ranks just 29th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
Specifically, we are going to back Panarin to find the back of the net now that he is reunited with Kane against a below-average Senators defense and goaltender. Even if those two are not paired, Panarin is still a great threat to score, registering seven goals over his last nine games and four over his last eight against the Sens.
Best Bet: Artemi Panarin 1+ Goals (+205 via BetRivers)
- Tony Sartori
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NHL Same Game Parlay
Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins
- Leg 1: OVER 4.5 Bruins Total Goals (+140)
- Leg 2: OVER 6.5 Total Goals (-115)
- Leg 3: David Pastrnak Anytime Goal (-115)
The Sabres are just three points behind the Penguins for the last Wild Card spot and every game is crucial.
The league’s second-best offense has the next-up mentality. Rookie Jack Quinn moved to the first line replacing the injured Alex Tuch, and stepped up with a goal and an assist in the last game, giving him four points over his previous two games.
The Bruins continue to dominate, winning eight straight, and are on pace to have the most regular-season wins and points. This is one of the best-scoring defenses in the league, and goalie Linus Ullmark continues to build his Vezina Trophy-winning resume.
On offense, the highlight is David Pastrnak who is currently second in goals and fourth in points as he plays for his next contract.
The Sabres have the offense to compete with the Bruins but not the defense. They’ll have to overpower Boston to snap their winning streak.
Parlay Odds: +742
- John Supowitz
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NHL Player Prop Bets
Nikita Kucherov OVER 1.5 Points vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (+110)
The Eastern Conference has a lot of great teams, but it’s tough not to love Tampa Bay, who have made it to three straight Stanley Cup finals. The Lightning’s offense runs deep, leading with Brayden Point's 37 goals, Nikita Kucherov being second in the league with 63 assists, and the team has four players with 20 or more goals.
They’ll face off against the Penguins, who have had their number by beating them twice with a combined score of 113-5. Kucherov has been involved in both games, grabbing two points in each. As great as the Pittsburgh offense is, they have a below-average defense, and I like Kucherov to have another multi-point night.
- John Supowitz
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NHL Goal In First Ten (GIFT) Picks
Nashville Predators vs. Florida Panthers
In the last matchup, the Panthers took an upset loss in Nashville 7-3. Lucky for Florida, this Nashville team will look very different from the one in the previous game.
The Predators were busy during the trade deadline sending Nino Niederreiter to the Jets and their breakout star from last season, Tanner Jeannot, to the Lightning for a hefty return of picks.
Their offense has been horrendous all season, with defenseman Roman Josi leading the team in points and no one having 20 goals.
Florida’s offense isn't as dynamic as last season but hasn’t taken a significant dip. The team couldn't have asked for a better first year from Matthew Tkachuk, as he leads the team with 79 points. The mainstays from last season's President Trophy winner are having another great year with Carter Verhaeghe's 31 goals, Sam Reinhardt having 21, and Aleksander Barkov and Brandon Montour having 30+ assists.
Nashville is top ten in GIFT cash-ins, but Florida is in the middle. I like the Panthers in general, but it’s going to take them longer to get goals.
Pick: UNDER 0.5 (-175)
- John Supowitz
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