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Thursday’s Best MLB, NHL & NBA Picks & Predictions

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No matter your sport of choice, there's always sports betting action to be had. We'll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

Today's Best Bets

Here are today's best bets.

MLB Best Bets

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:35 PM ET

On paper, this is one of my favorite bets on the slate. The Pirates, who are a surprising 12-7 thus far, are sending Roansy Contreras to the mound. While he has gotten off to a rough start, it seems to be a bit out of sync with what we know about him in his career. The BABIP is high, and the LOB% is low, and both should find their way back to the middle. In his small career sample thus far, he has struggled a bit early in games, but this Reds offense performs much better at home, and the team is 1-5 on the road thus far in the early going.

Luke Weaver makes his 2023 debut for the Reds. While he is a solid enough pitcher, this bet is mostly against the Pirates. The Pirates just returned home after a Coors Field trip. While the Coors effect is more pronounced when you spend a longer period of time there, there is still likely to be an impact on their hitters, likely causing a slow start. Throughout his career, Weaver has been best the first time through the order, allowing a wOBA under .300. This all matches up well for Weaver and the potential that he can keep the Pirates off the board.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (-115)

  • Paul Mammino

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NBA Playoffs Best Bets

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers

The series is thus far split on the Over/Under, and the oddsmakers have been relatively sharp in setting their lines (Game 1 went under by 0.5 points, and Game 2 went over by 4.5 points). Regardless, we'll take a stand on the Total in Game 3 as the series shifts to Los Angeles.

Only the Charlotte Hornets (28-13) trended under on their home floor more than the Clippers (27-14) during the regular season, and this fact alone is worth taking a closer look at such a bet in this game: Los Angeles has relatively neutral Offensive and Defensive ratings on their home floor, but they have a slightly worse Offensive and Defensive Rating at home versus on the road. Interestingly though (and evidently, wrongly), the average Over/Under in a Clippers game ticks up nearly a point when playing on their home floor. We see this same phenomenon being exhibited in this game, as the set number of 226.5 is a full point higher than it was in the previous game in Pheonix.

The Clippers are still without Paul George, a net +1.4 offensive player per 538's RAPTOR Ratings, and were stymied by the Suns offensively in the second half of Game 2 this past Tuesday. I think it's ambitious to ask them to hold up their end of the bargain on the offensive end in this matchup, as they've gotten unlikely contributions from the likes of Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook (in Games 1 and 2, respectively), thus far. It's doubtful that such contributions continue for the Clippers, and it's unfair to continue to expect such an effort from Kawhi Leonard, who has averaged 34.5 ppg through two games this series.

In that same vein, it is doubtful that the Suns' offense translates with the change of venue, and it has been a unit that has struggled for prolonged periods of the series versus the length of the Clippers. Let's also note that both of these two teams play at below-average pace and cite once more that the Over/Under shifting upwards from the previous game is non-sensible. Back the game Under in a likely contentious and pivotal matchup.

Bet: Under 226.5 (-110)

  • Tommy Jurgens

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NHL Playoffs Best Bets

New York Rangers (+110) at New Jersey Devils (-130) | Total 5.5

The Rangers played a nearly perfect road playoff hockey game. They clogged the middle of the ice and frustrated an inexperienced Devils team that struggled to adjust to a more rugged postseason style of play. New Jersey thrives in scoring off the rush, but the Rangers did a tremendous job of stifling the neutral zone and limiting odd-man rush opportunities. Then, New York countered and capitalized on their scoring changes. And when the Devils did break through with a chance, Igor Shesterkin was there to slam the door shut.

While New Jersey's Game 1 performance was frustrating, there is a reason for optimism. The advanced metrics suggest it was New Jersey that was actually the better team at 5-on-5 play. The Devils controlled possession at an impressive 65% clip and had 31 scoring chances to New York's 17.

The difference came on the power play, where the Devils went 0-for-4 while the Rangers went 2-for-3.

The Game 2 odds are similar to where they closed for Game 1. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Rangers become a public underdog after the dominant result Tuesday night.

Sure, the Devils will lose the goaltending battle between Vitek Vanecek and Shesterkin. And I'm worried about New Jersey's ability to adjust to the more sandpaper style of playoff hockey. But I'm willing to believe in New Jersey's 5-on-5 metrics. The expected goal margin at 5-on-5 was 2.27-1.51 in New Jersey's favor. However, the Rangers outscored the Devils 2-0 at even strength.

With slightly better goaltending and better power play execution, I trust the Devils to even up the series.

The pick: Devils (-130)

  • Matt Barbato

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