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Thursday’s Best NFL, College Football, MLB & NHL Bets (10/12)

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No matter your sport of choice, there’s always sports betting action to be had. We’ll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

Today’s Best Bets

Here are today’s best bets.

NFL Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have had three games with a total listed at 50 or higher, and every single one of them has gone under. When you look at the difference between the actual score and the total listed by oddsmakers, the Chiefs’ games are averaging 7.4 points under what oddsmakers are listing the line. That’s the largest discrepancy in favor of the under in the league.

Yet, even with Kelce likely limited, we’re taking the over in this one. The Broncos have allowed at least 28 points in their last four games. The New York Jets just scored 31 points last week. 

The Chiefs’ defense has been very good for most of the season. They held the Minnesota Vikings to 20 last week, and the Jacksonville Jaguars only managed nine. However, the Broncos’ offense and Russell Wilson are better than they’re getting credit for. Wilson is currently outperforming Mahomes, with more touchdowns and fewer interceptions. Last season, he had solid numbers against the Chiefs. We expect that to continue tonight and help push this over.

Bet: Over 47.0 (-110)

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College Football Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

#18 UCLA @ #15 Oregon State

Betting unders may not be the most fun part of betting, but winning money is, and I’ll go with another in this game! UCLA is eighth in scoring defense, third against the run (the Beavers’ strength), and 24th against the pass. UCLA only allowed Washington State to score 17 points last week when their previous low was 31 against Wisconsin. This team is also getting turnovers, with 13 already in games.

Oregon State saw a nice burst of offense in two of the last three weeks, putting up 35 against Wazzu and 52 against Cal last week. QB DJ Uiagalelei looked awesome in that game, going 19/25 with 275 and five TDs. The rushing attack is ranked 16th in YPG and is the strength of this team behind RBs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick.

UCLA is middle of the road in scoring offense at 63rd, 44th in passing offense, and 23rd in rushing. At least the Oregon State defense is above average. The Beavers are 35th in scoring, allowing just under 20 PPG, 16th against the run, and a little below average at 77th against the pass. I like UCLA in this game straight up, but I think it’s going to be fairly low-scoring, and both teams offensively feed into the strength of the opposing defense. It will be a close one that could be impacted by some ugly weather, as well. Give me the Under!

Bet: UNDER 54.0 (-110)

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MLB Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Spencer Strider was the best strikeout pitcher this season with a league-high 281 strikeouts and was the only pitcher with 20 wins. He was incredible in Game 1, going seven innings, allowing one earned run and striking out eight. Still, the Braves’ offense failed him, as they couldn’t get a run in the loss.

The Braves needed a big offensive outburst in Game 2 by overcoming an 0-4 deficit in the final three innings, but they couldn’t carry that momentum into Game 3, only managing to score two runs, and now face elimination.

The Phillies didn’t ask much from Ranger Suarez in Game 1. He only went 3.2 innings but didn’t allow a run and handed it over to the bullpen, who closed it out. The Phillies look like the team who hit an MLB record-tying 307 home runs. Philadelphia has used the longball throughout the series, but in Game 4, they went off with six, including Bryce Harper’s first-career postseason multi-home run game.

Strider has been great against the Phillies throughout this season. In a close-out game, it will be all hands on deck for Philadelphia, and Suarez again may not have a long outing. I’ll side with the same result as the last game and take the under.

Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (+100)

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NHL Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Seattle Kraken @ Nashville Predators

It was a tough opening night for each of these two clubs on Wednesday, as the Kraken lost 4-1 to the Las Vegas Knights, while the Predators dropped the season’s opening game 5-3 to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

In terms of total goals scored, I like this meeting to go more like Seattle’s opening game. While eight goals were scored in the Nashville game, it was a complete ref show, as nine total penalties were called, with Tampa succeeding on the power play at a 40% clip.

Nashville’s penalty kill is much stronger than a 60% rate would suggest from that small sample size. Meanwhile, at 5-on-5, the Preds’ blue line played tremendously, allowing a mere 1.43 expected goals (xGA). Predators goaltender Juuse Saros also didn’t have his best stuff, but we should expect positive regression sooner rather than later for the perennial Vezina candidate who ranked first among all starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Still, Saros may not get a ton of goal support from this offense that generated just 2.77 expected goals (xGF) at 5-on-5.

That is a common theme from last season:  Saros needing to play his best, knowing that goal support is certainly not guaranteed from this lineup. Last year, Nashville finished 21st in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense is a prime regression candidate this season. Last year, they finished first in GF/60 at 5-on-5 and first in finishing despite ranking 20th in xGF/60 at even strength, a combination that is unsustainable in the long run. The Kraken offense failed to get it going against Vegas in their season debut, scoring just once en route to their 4-1 loss. The blue line, however, held its own as it gave up 2.58 xGA at 5-on-5. This should not be that shocking, given that the Kraken ranked sixth in the league last year in xGA/60 at even strength.

Neither team plays at a blistering pace, and given all the other variables, I like the Under 6.0 here at plus-money.

Bet: Under 6.0 (+100)

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