Titans vs. Cowboys: NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 17)
On Thursday, the Cowboys head to Nashville to take on the Titans. Dallas comes in eyeing an NFC East title and needing a win to stay in the mix. Tennessee, on the other hand, will have a win-and-in Week 18 scenario against Jacksonville no matter how this game goes. This contrast is apparent in the sportsbooks’ pricing of this game. With Tennessee likely to hold out some key starters, the Cowboys are 12-point favorites in a game with a total of just 39.5 points.
Despite the wide spread on the game, there’s plenty of value in props and lines offered for this one. I’ll be playing this three-leg parlay on Draftkings Thursday night.
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Titans U13.5 Team Total (-120)
Despite the Dallas defense’s struggles in recent weeks, I think they’ll get back on track against a Titans offense down multiple starters. QB Ryan Tannehill will miss the game, and superstar RB Derrick Henry is doubtful. He will likely sit with nothing for the Titans to gain by winning Thursday night.
Rookie QB Malik Willis has shown flashes, but he’s largely struggled in his first year with the Titans. In the three games he’s started, Tennessee has averaged 16.0 points offensively. While this is a respectable mark, it needs context. In these three games, Derrick Henry posted 72 carries for 460 yards and five TDs. In contrast, Willis completed 25-of-49 passes for 234 yards and zero TDs.
Tennessee’s preferred game plan with Willis is to use runs and short passes to hide his deficiencies as a passer. Without Henry, and against a good Cowboys defense, I don’t expect them to execute this game plan on Thursday.
Ezekiel Elliott Anytime TD (-155)
The Titans have a very stout run defense this year, but often rushing TDs have more to do with opportunity and less to do with matchups. Elliott has been the beneficiary of opportunity this year and has converted his role as the Cowboys’ short-yardage RB into TDs in his last eight games. This insane run of scoring has been largely due to his role, as he’s gotten multiple red zone touches in all eight of these games.
Zeke’s red zone workload has been especially high since he returned from injury six weeks ago. He has 25 red zone touches in these six games — averaging over four per game. Even against a good run defense, I expect Elliott to get enough red zone work that this bet is a good value at the offered price.
Michael Gallup O44.5 Receiving Yards (+190)
This year, the Titans have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL against opposing WRs. They allow 14.3 catches for 189.7 receiving yards per game to their opponents — both of these marks are third-worst in the NFL.
Gallup has been productive this year. While he doesn’t quite have CeeDee Lamb’s star power, he’s quietly averaging three catches on 5.3 targets per game this season. He averages 10.7 yards per reception — given his averages this year and the Titans’ propensity to allow yards, the +190 price on this prop feels like a good value.
This play is negatively correlated with the Titans’ scoring prop. If Tennessee doesn’t score much, Dallas is unlikely to throw much. Even so, it offers us a great price on this parlay, and the events certainly aren’t mutually exclusive.
Parlay Odds: +750
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