Toledo vs. Miami (OH): College Football Week 8 Odds & Picks (2023)

by BettingPros Staff |
Oct 18, 2023

Another solid weekend with our picks, and yet again, we missed out on a couple of bigger plays.

Michigan State controlled the entire game and, unfortunately, fell apart at the end against Rutgers. New Mexico State, Troy and Navy were never in doubt, while Auburn was never a sweat either because they got demolished. All things considered, a 5-3 record ATS is something we will take every single weekend.

We have eight College Football Week 8 games that present some value. Here are all of my picks. And below we dive into Toledo vs. Miami (OH).

College Football Week 8 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks: Toledo vs. Miami (OH)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Record

ATS: 9-7 (+1.30 units)
Parlay: 0-2 (-3.00 units)
Teaser: 1-1 (-.10 units)
Overall: -1.80 units

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt