Top 10 NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bet Picks (2024)
Super Wild Card weekend is here, and there’s money to be made betting props this week. We have a plethora of juicy matchups to smash the overs for and some stingy defenses that should lead to some unders.
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Enjoy another fantastic week of football with some NFL prop action. Enjoy the sweats, and let’s stack some cash this week.
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Top 10 NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bet Picks
Joe Flacco o268.5 passing yards & o37.5 passing attempts
Joe Flacco has eclipsed both of these marks in four of his last five games. He should sail over both again this week. Houston has been a Swiss cheese pass defense, giving up the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards, and the ninth-highest CPOE since Week 12.
Nico Collins o5.5 receptions
Collins is C.J. Stroud’s main squeeze. In the five games Collins has played this season where Tank Dell has been limited or absent, he has soaked up a huge piece of the passing pie with a 22.9% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 3.93 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. In the 13 games this season that Collins has played at 50% of the snaps, he has commanded a 31% TPRR against Cover 2 and Cover 3 with 3.9 YPRR. Collins will get fed again this week.
Devin Singletary o65.5 rushing yards
The last time Singletary faced this run defense, he ran for 4.89 yards per carry, but he only had nine rushing attempts. He finished with 12 touches and 63 total yards. He is the Texans’ every down bellcow. Last week, he played 88% of the snaps with 25 touches and 65 total yards. Since Week 12, Cleveland has bled out the highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.92). 51.4% of Singletary’s runs have been via gap plays. Singletary didn’t have the volume to eclipse this number last time but he will this week.
David Njoku o54.5 receiving yards
Njoku has been otherworldly, with Flacco averaging 78 receiving yards. Since Week 13, Houston has the third-highest rate of two-high (65.3%). In the 14 full games that Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku have played together against two-high, Njoku has had a 21.5% target share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. Houston has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Noah Gray o1.5 receptions
This bet is plus money at nearly every book with some getting as high as +130. Gray has eclipsed this number in five of his last ten games and should go over it again this week. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against these coverages, Gray has had a 29% TPRR (third on the team) and 2.86 YPRR. Miami has struggled to defend tight ends all season.
Isiah Pacheco u65.5 rushing yards
If the Chiefs want to move the ball this week consistently, they should stick to their passing game, which leads me to hitting the under here for Pacheco. The Dolphins run defense has been an elite unit. Since Week 12, they have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while also logging the eighth-highest stuff rate.
Dalton Kincaid o33.5 receiving yards
Kincaid has hit the over for this number in seven of his last ten games. Since Week 15, he has averaged 85.5 receiving yards per game. With Gabriel Davis out, Josh Allen will continue to lean on Kincaid. Since Week 13, the Steelers have had the second-highest rate of single-high (64.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Kincaid has had a 17.8% target share (second on the team), 1.61 YPRR, and an 18.7% first-read share (second on the team). Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Khalil Shakir o31.5 receiving yards
Shakir has hit the over for this line in seven of his last ten games. With Davis out, Shakir should be a prominent figure in the Bills’ passing attack again this week. Since Week 13, the Steelers have had the second-highest rate of single-high (64.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Shakir has had a 10% target share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 9.8% first-read share. Since Week 13, Pittsburgh has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to slot receivers.
Aaron Jones o69.5 rushing yards
Jones has returned with a fury since Week 16. Over his last three games, he has averaged 21 rushing attempts and 119.3 rushing yards. Since Week 13, Green Bay’s offensive line has been clearing the road, ranking ninth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and second in Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Jones should have no issues running on Dallas, who, since Week 13, has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game.
*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and BettingPros.com unless otherwise specified.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
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